Probability & statistics: Game 6

May, 28, 2010
AP Photo/Winslow TownsonIt's a bird, it's a plane ... it's a dunk for Superman.
A quick glance at the historical numbers and patterns, with helps from our friends at ESPN Stats & Information, before the Boston visit the Orlando Magic in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals Wednesday night at Amway Arena:

* The Magic could become the first team in NBA history facing a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 at home.

* The Celtics led this series 3-0. There had been 93 previous occurrences of a team leading 3-0 in a best-of-seven series and that team has won all 93 series. If the Magic win Game 6, the series will be tied 3-3. Only three teams in NBA history have been down 3-0 and gone on to force a Game 7. Those teams are the 1951 Knicks (vs. Royals), 1994 Nuggets (vs. Jazz) and 2003 Blazers (vs. Mavericks).

* Over the last four postseasons, the Magic are 4-0 in elimination games against the Celtics. Orlando is 0-3 in elimination games against other NBA teams in that span.

* The Celtics led the Magic 3-2 in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. Orlando won Game 6 in Orlando by eight points, then prevailed in Game 7 in Boston by 19 points.

* In NBA history, the home team wins Game 7 of a best-of-seven series 80 percent of the time.

* Check out THIS post for Accuscores comparison of winning percentages by games. After taking a 3-0 series lead, the Celtics were 95.5 percent certain of winning the series based on their computations. If Orlando steals Game 6, Boston's odds fall to 33.5 percent.

Chris Forsberg

Celtics reporter,



You must be signed in to post a comment

Already have an account?


Jeff Green
18.7 1.6 0.9 33.7
ReboundsJ. Sullinger 7.9
AssistsJ. Nelson 7.0
StealsJ. Nelson 2.5
BlocksK. Olynyk 0.8