Stats in the Paint: weekend outlook

January, 25, 2013
1/25/13
7:25
PM ET

Stat of the week: A breakdown of who Syracuse's Michael Carter-Williams has most-often assisted.

Let’s get you warmed up for this week’s "College GameDay" road show (live Saturday from the PNC Arena in Raleigh, N.C. at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN) by taking a look at some notes and nuggets from our college hoops advanced-stats research team (a group we call the “Stats in the Paint” team).

Top games

Maryland at (1) Duke, 1 p.m. ET
Stat to Watch: Duke is averaging 1.28 points per play in transition this season, best in the ACC and fourth-highest in the nation. Maryland's transition defense, on the other hand, is the best in the ACC and third-best in the nation, allowing opponents to shoot only 40 percent.

Player to Watch: Duke is shooting 43 percent when guarded on catch-and-shoot plays this season, best in the ACC and third-best in the nation. Seth Curry has been the catalyst, averaging an ACC-best 1.48 points per shot on those plays.

(3) Syracuse at Villanova, 11 a.m. ET (ESPNU)
Stat to Watch: The Orange average 39.4 PPG in the paint, the most for any team in one of the power six conferences. Syracuse is also outscoring its opponents by 16.5 PPG in the paint this season, the highest differential among schools in the major conferences.

Common Bond: Syracuse is forcing turnovers on nearly one out of every four possessions this season, the second-highest rate in the Big East. Villanova turns the ball over on just over a quarter of its offensive possessions, the second-highest percentage in the conference.

Player to Watch: If turnovers are key, watch Ryan Arcidiacono. Villanova is 1-4 this season when he has five or more turnovers, and 11-3 when he has fewer than five, including in an upset win over Louisville on Monday.

(5) Louisville at Georgetown, Noon ET (ESPN)
Stat to Watch: Lousville averages a Big East-best 15 second-chance points per game this season, which is third among power six conference schools. The Hoyas, on the other hand, only allow 7.5 second-chance points per game, second-fewest in the conference.

Player to Watch: Louisville outscores its opponents by an average of 16.8 points per game against Big East opponents with Peyton Siva on the court, the highest plus-minus in the conference (Statsheet.com).

(12) Minnesota at Wisconsin, 2 p.m. ET
Minnesota Stat to Watch: Minnesota is grabbing 48 percent of its missed shots this season, the highest offensive-rebounding percentage in the nation. The Gophers turn those rebounds into 14.7 second-chance points per game, the most in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin Stat to Watch: Wisconsin allows 9.5 points per game off turnovers this season, the fewest in the Big Ten.

North Carolina at (18) NC State, p.m. 7 ET (ESPN)
Common bond: NC State averages 22.4 transition points per game this season, second-most in the nation behind Northwestern State’s 22.5. North Carolina averages 19.3 transition points per game, fifth-most in the country and second-most in the ACC.

Player to Watch: James Michael McAdoo is shooting 37.7 percent in the post, which is 116th in the nation out of 128 players with at least 75 post-up plays this season.

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