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Originally Published: October 5, 2009

Bay's future is most pressing issue

Transitioning Red Sox have some tough decisions to make this offseason

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By Peter Gammons
ESPNBoston.com
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It was as if they were caught in a prevent defense, hoping to go another day against an Angels team that out-pitched, out-defensed, out-hit and out-athleticized them. In a sense, there was shock because Jonathan Papelbon hadn't allowed a postseason run in 17 previous appearances and he was one strike away with two out and none on in the ninth inning.

But as the ninth inning unfolded (see box to the right), it didn't have the same shocking feel of Bobby Thomson's "shot heard 'round the world" or Don Denkinger's blown call in the 1985 World Series or Kirk Gibson's dramatic Game 1 homer in the 1988 World Series. It was more like Huston Street's ninth inning Monday night when the Phillies beat the Rockies, an unpleasant inevitability that Red Sox players did not want to accept, but respected.

Because they went out in three games and had their strike zones punched by John Lackey and Jered Weaver in Anaheim, absolutes were drawn and exaggerated based on three games. Theo Epstein has long said that when a team plays in the American League East against the multinational corporation known as the Yankees, it has to be built to win 95 games and see what happens in the postseason. This team won 95 games. It scored 872 runs, more than it scored in 2008 (845) and more than when it won the World Series in 2007 (867), the last full season that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were batting back-to-back. They hit 212 home runs, the most they've hit since 2004, and their plus-136 run differential was the second-best in baseball, behind the Yankees.

Now, that doesn't mean that there aren't concerns, "issues," Epstein says, "we have to address." Good teams are supposed to get to 95-100 wins by beating bad teams. The Baltimore Orioles provided the Red Sox with 16 of their 95 wins and plus-62 of their plus-136 run differential. There was a sense that playing the Orioles at the right times inflated the eight-game margin the Red Sox held over Texas in the wild-card standings when the regular season ended.

There is no Mark Teixeira in this winter's free-agent market. Epstein doesn't have to be reminded of that. The Red Sox's next crop of very good young players likely won't be arriving before 2012. Pitcher Casey Kelly could be in the 2011 rotation, 19-year old outfielder Ryan Westmoreland another year out, with outfielders Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick on the radar. So, through the next two seasons, Epstein has to try to cobble together a team built around pitching and hope to stay near the 95-win level. The feeling is that the Red Sox can accomplish that in 2010, but then Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez are free agents and 2011 could become a transition season.

Epstein could pull a reverse Hanley Ramirez and see if trading an established pitcher or player can bring him potential that can fit with Kelly, Westmoreland and Co. when they arrive. "We have," says Epstein, "a lot of thinking to do." He'll have to do it in a market where thinking is done out loud.

Epstein talks of "10 core players." For 2010, they are Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew. Yes, that doesn't include Ortiz.

The Sox know what they have for pitching. With the maturation of Buchholz, and with Matsuzaka's having learned a painful conditioning lesson, the Red Sox assume they will have a stronger rotation than the '09 starting staff that was 65-50 with the eighth-best starters' ERA in the American League (4.63) and the third-most quality starts. Tim Wakefield is expected back, Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa can be back-end fillers, and there is always the chance that Epstein will look into someone like Ben Sheets, Rich Harden or Mark Mulder (although he'll go to Milwaukee if Rick Peterson gets the Brewers' pitching coach job).

The Angels' beating Papelbon on Sunday was not something that shocked anyone who watched him gut his way through the regular season. For one reason or another, Papelbon evolved into a one-pitch pitcher whose one pitch -- a fastball -- declined a tick or two. When he took over the closer's role in 2006, he had a devastating split-fingered fastball and slider. In his Sunday appearance, he threw one non-fastball (for a ball). The lesson will not go unnoticed, and expect him to get back to using the splitter more. Papelbon still is a closer with a 1.84 career ERA, 151 saves in four years and a 346-77 strikeout-walk ratio.

With Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, Dustin Richardson and Takashi Saito, Boston has bullpen depth. With several teams expected to rekindle interest in Delcarmen and Ramirez, the Sox may be able to deal one for a right-handed hitting outfielder who can defend (like Cody Ross or Ryan Spilborghs) and sign a free-agent middle reliever.

After that come the questions. They all begin with whether they can re-sign Jason Bay. The club has shown the willingness to go four years and close to $60 million, but now that Bay is close to free agency, he wants to see if the Yankees (unlikely), Mets (cash problems), Angels or another team is willing to go six years at $17 million to $18 million per. Bay is a middle-of-the-order hitter coming off 37 homers. He led all AL outfielders in OPS (Drew was second). Fenway disguises some of his defensive shortcomings. He is a great team guy who skates his wing through the fanatical Red Sox Nation.

Replacing Bay would not be easy, but the Red Sox are not the Yankees, who can sign players just to insure they do not leave. Matt Holliday might be an alternative, especially given his love of Fenway and his close family relationship with John Farrell (who was the pitching coach at Oklahoma State when Holliday's father Tom was the head coach), but he wouldn't be cheaper. Incidentally, the four major league outfielders with the highest 2009 OPS numbers were Ryan Braun (.937), Bay (.921), Drew (.914) and Holliday (.909).

As the Bay issue hovers over them, so do two other major questions:

1. How do the Red Sox improve their offensive road woes?

2. How do they improve a below-average defense?

The Red Sox were 56-25 at Fenway and 39-42 on the road. Their home OPS was .862, road .753. Some examples:

They may try to add more speed. An outfielder like Ross would give them adequate defense and a bat that's performed well in a pitchers' park in Florida. They will search, Bay or no Bay.

The defense is trickier. In 2008, they ranked first in the American League in defensive efficiency. This season, one system ranked them eighth in the AL, another ranked them below every major league team but the Reds. They threw out 13 percent of base runners (23-of-174). No other team in the American League was below 21 percent. Studying different systems of measuring defense, they essentially were above average at first base, second base and right field, below average everywhere else, and in the bottom two teams at shortstop, third base, catcher and left field.

The hope is that Jed Lowrie's wrist heals and he can hit left-handed the way he hit right-handed at the end of the season, and that he can play an above-average shortstop. Alex Gonzalez may be back, or they could throw some money at Marco Scutaro (who was in the top three defensive shortstops in most metrics) and make him a shortstop/utility man.

Lowell believes that a winter's rehabilitation will restore some of his range, which shrunk, although he bravely fought through the hip problem most of the season. There don't seem to be any definitive answers to the Lowell/Ortiz issues. The Sox could go find another big bat -- which is why Epstein wanted Teixeira so badly -- and let manager Terry Francona play politician to find playing time for everyone. Some have suggested flipping Lowell to first and Youkilis to third. Epstein always liked Adrian Beltre, who through four operations in a calendar year still was in the top four defensive third basemen in the AL. The ideal third baseman would be Chone Figgins, with his .395 OBP, speed and the best defensive metrics at the position. But he's past 30 and headed for a four-year deal that likely will start at $40 million.

Martinez's bat will be in the lineup every day, and he will be asked to catch at least 100 games. Whether Jason Varitek takes his $3 million option and returns remains to be seen, and while the Sox seem hopeful about the futures of catchers Luis Exposito and Tim Federowicz, they will likely try to find another catcher, especially one who can throw. In the past, they made a run at Colorado's Chris Iannetta, which could happen again. They also made runs at Miguel Montero and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but Montero is now untouchable and Saltalamacchia is hurt. With Carlos Santana on the horizon, the Indians may deal Kelly Shoppach.

"We have a lot of thinking to do in the upcoming months," says Epstein. And it starts with the nightmare that they lose Bay, and Ortiz and Lowell do not bounce back for the $25.5 million their pasts will pay them in 2010.