Breaking down the '09 pitching staff
A deep look into the stats of the Red Sox' hurlers
Has the saying "You can never have too much pitching" ever been tested this thoroughly? Flash back to March. The Red Sox rotation looked to be about eight pitchers deep, with a former Cy Young Award winner looming as a June reinforcement. The bullpen was stacked with an emerging set-up man in Justin Masterson, the acquisition of Ramon Ramirez and a relief ace ready for mop-up duty in Takashi Saito. How would Terry Francona possibly keep everyone happy? After a tumultuous year, that's no longer the question on anyone's mind. Let's dive into the numbers to decipher a strange season on the mound.
Boston Red Sox
Josh BeckettIt's never good when your ace pitches like a No. 4 starter at home. That's how it was with Josh Beckett in his first three years in Boston. From 2006 to 2008, Beckett was 21-16 with a 4.79 ERA at Fenway and 27-12 with a 3.42 ERA on the road. He turned that around in 2009, going 10-1 at home with a 3.59 ERA. Plagued by blisters and other injuries earlier in his career, Beckett has been a model of durability for the Red Sox. In fact, only four pitchers have logged more innings in the American League over the past four years. However, an interesting trend emerged in 2009. When working on four days' rest, Beckett was 6-5 with a 4.73 ERA. When getting extra rest, he was arguably the best pitcher in the AL at 9-0 with a 2.29 ERA.
Tim Wakefield in September
Daisuke MatsuzakaAfter three months on the shelf, any signs of life from Daisuke Matsuzaka would have been encouraging. But his performance in four starts over the final three weeks of the season was more than that. Daisuke just might be back. Sure, it was only four starts, and he still had too many walks, struggled against lefties and can't work late into games. But that was all true in 2008, too, and he went 18-3. Consider what he did in those last four starts, while keeping in mind the rust factor. Matsuzaka held righties to an MLB-best .088 batting average in the final three weeks, compared with .412 before his lengthy stint on the disabled list. Nothing defined his magicianlike 2008 season better than holding opponents to a .164 batting average with runners in scoring position. In the final weeks of 2009, opponents hit just .103 with runners in scoring position. Sounds familiar -- and promising for 2010.
Clay BuchholzWho am I? As a September call-up, I dazzled in my second career start, raising expectations to an almost unreasonable level. About to turn 23, I was penciled into the starting rotation out of spring training. That's when the path got a bit rough. Struggling, I was sent down in May. Called up later in the year, nothing had changed. Approaching 24, I started the following year in the minors trying to reclaim my promise. I pitched well enough that by July I got called up and finished the year as a key member of the rotation. I'm Clay Buchholz, right? Not exactly. Meet Roy Halladay, circa 2001. In 2002, Halladay went 19-7. In 2003, he won the Cy Young.
Red Sox' Lowest Opp. BA with RISP, Last 35 Years (min. 60 batters faced)
|Player, Year||Opp. BA|
|Jonathan Papelbon, 2009||.128|
|Hideki Okajima, 2007||.130|
|Pedro Martinez, 2000||.133|
|Joe Hesketh, 1991||.141|
|Roger Clemens, 1994||.157|
Ramon RamirezWell, he certainly knows how to make a good first impression. Ramon Ramirez didn't allow an earned run in his first 13 appearances with the club, the longest such streak for a Red Sox pitcher in the past 55 years. Even if you take out that dazzling stretch, his ERA was a respectable 3.62 the rest of the way. That said, his poor performance against the Yankees can't be ignored. In 7 1/3 innings against New York, Ramirez had an 8.59 ERA, allowing 4 home runs, 7 extra-base hits and 7 walks.
Takashi SaitoAmong pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, Takashi Saito had the 10th-best ERA in the AL. So why were the Red Sox so quick to decline his 2010 option? In addition to being expensive, Saito was simply not as good as his numbers indicate. In tie and one-run games, opponents hit .313 off Saito, and he had more walks than strikeouts. In save situations, Saito had a 5.06 ERA, compared with a 2.15 otherwise. It's no coincidence that nearly half of his appearances were in games with a margin of five runs or greater.
Highest ERA in September, AL Pitchers Since 1955 (min. 10 appearances)
|Pitcher, team||Year||Sept. ERA|
|Mike Holtz, Angels||1997||17.36|
|Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox||2009||14.14|
|Jimmy Gobble, Royals||2006||14.09|
|Vaughn Eshelman, Red Sox||1996||14.00|
Hideki OkajimaIn his three seasons in Boston, Hideki Okajima has gone from a great lefty reliever to a great lefty specialist. That's a nice way of saying Okajima was terrible against right-handed hitters in 2009. Although he held lefties to a .167 average, righties hit .309 with seven home runs off him. By September, this disparity reached a ridiculous level. In the final month of the season, lefties hit .083 against Okajima and righties .476. Okajima also failed in a quest to make obscure Red Sox history. With zero losses in 68 appearances, he fell two shy of Javier Lopez's club record for appearances without a loss set in 2008.
Highest K per 9 IP Among Rookies, Since 2000 (min. 40 IP)
|Jose Valverde, Astros||2003||12.70|
|Takashi Saito, Dodgers||2006||12.29|
|Rafael Soriano, M's||2003||11.55|
|Daniel Bard, Red Sox||2009||11.49|