Commentary

Dueling projections: Pats' 53-man roster

Mike Reiss and Mike Rodak predict how the Patriots roster will look come September

Updated: August 12, 2010, 11:37 AM ET
By Mike Reiss | ESPNBoston.com

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- With two weeks of training camp in the books, players have begun to separate themselves, making the team's roster battles come more into focus. Bearing in mind that there are still four preseason games to play, here are the early projections from ESPNBoston.com Patriots reporter Mike Reiss and student assistant Mike Rodak on how they see the 53-man roster shaking up come early September:

Patriots 53-man roster projection

Mike Reiss' projection Mike Rodak's projection
Quarterback (2): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer Quarterback (2): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer
Analysis: No change from last season, except for a more confident Hoyer in the backup role. As the 2008 season proved with Matt Cassel, the backup spot shouldn't be overlooked. Zac Robinson, a late seventh-round draft choice in 2010, is a nice fit for the practice squad. Analysis: At this point, Robinson has yet to impress enough in training camp to warrant a spot on the 53-man roster. The Patriots have recently carried only two players at the position. Robinson would make an ideal candidate for the practice squad, where he can be developed over the course of the season.
Running back (4): Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk Running back (4): Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk
Analysis: All four players enter the last year of their contracts, so this is a position that figures to be prominently on the radar next season. BenJarvus Green-Ellis narrowly misses the cut, affected by the team's plans to keep three tight ends and tap a fullback from other areas on the roster. The Patriots kept five backs last season. Analysis: At least for this season, the tandem of Taylor, Maroney, and Morris will carry the load. Without any special teams impact, Green-Ellis is on the outside looking in at the 53-man roster. He is not practice squad-eligible.
Wide receiver (7): Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Taylor Price, Sam Aiken, Matthew Slater Wide receiver (6): Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Taylor Price, Sam Aiken
Analysis: Welker's quick return changes the outlook, which puts veteran Torry Holt on the outside looking in. Holt would be No. 5 or 6 on the depth chart, and a receiver in those spots has to be more of a factor on special teams. Aiken and Slater are not locks, but they are strong special teams performers. Analysis: Barring an injury at the position, Holt loses out in a numbers game. Aiken and Slater will battle for the sixth and final spot based on their respective impact on special teams.
Tight end (3): Alge Crumpler, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski Tight end (3): Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Alge Crumpler
Analysis: Hernandez has wowed in training camp. The Patriots are counting on this group to boost red-zone production. Analysis: Probably the easiest position to project on the roster. Second-year player Rob Myers has shown promise in camp and could be a practice squad candidate.
Offensive tackle (5): Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Mark LeVoir, George Bussey, Thomas Welch Offensive tackle (4): Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Mark LeVoir, George Bussey
Analysis: The Patriots can't take the chance of losing Bussey and Welch on waivers, so they are kept on the roster with the future in mind as Light enters the final year of his contract. Both show promise. Analysis: While he is certainly on the bubble, Bussey has the versatility to play both tackle and guard, and would be kept to provide insurance along an offensive line that has questions marks heading into the season. 2010 seventh-round draft choice Welch, a former tight end, still looks raw and could use a season on the practice squad.
Interior offensive line (5): Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, Ted Larsen Interior offensive line (6): Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, Rich Ohrnberger, Ted Larsen
Analysis: This assumes tackle-turned-guard Nick Kaczur winds up on injured reserve and Logan Mankins remains away from the team in his contract standoff. Larsen bumps out 2009 fourth-round pick Rich Ohrnberger. Analysis: Assuming the Mankins situation is not resolved by the start of the regular season, the team could hold on to a full complement of interior reserves, at least to begin the season. Converted tackle Nick Kaczur would be placed on injured reserve in this scenario.
Defensive line (6): Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Mike Wright, Gerard Warren, Damione Lewis, Myron Pryor Defensive line (6): Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Mike Wright, Gerard Warren, Damione Lewis, Myron Pryor
Analysis: Ty Warren's status remains a big question mark. This scenario gives him a roster spot, but Bill Belichick sounded concerned that his health could keep him out for an extended period of time. Ron Brace remains on the non-football injury list and would not count on the roster. Rookies Kade Weston, Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick are solid practice squad candidates. Analysis: At this point, Brace's best chance of staying in Foxborough to start the season is on the reserve/non-football injury list. Lewis and Gerard Warren have provided a steady veteran presence in camp so far. Darryl Richard has had an underwhelming training camp, but is a practice squad candidate, along with rookies Love, Deaderick and Weston.
Outside linebacker (5): Tully Banta-Cain, Jermaine Cunningham, Pierre Woods, Rob Ninkovich, Marques Murrell Outside linebacker (4): Tully Banta-Cain, Jermaine Cunningham, Pierre Woods, Rob Ninkovich
Analysis: The top four look like locks, and then it comes to a question of whether a player like Murrell offers more value as a special-teamer/pass-rusher than reserve inside linebackers like Tyrone McKenzie and Eric Alexander. Veteran Derrick Burgess' status could also impact Murrell. Analysis: It is unlikely that the team will start the season with only the present personnel, which includes two special teams-focused players in Woods and Ninkovich, as well as Murrell, who would be cut in this projection.
Inside linebacker (4): Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Brandon Spikes, Thomas Williams Inside linebacker (6): Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Brandon Spikes, Tyrone McKenzie, Thomas Williams, Eric Alexander
Analysis: Spikes's emergence helps him leapfrog 2009 third-round draft choice McKenzie at a suddenly stocked position. Alexander, a veteran, could stick as a special-teamer, but Williams' versatility to also line up at fullback gets him the nod here. Dane Fletcher can be groomed on the practice squad. Analysis: Perhaps the deepest position on the defense. Spikes has separated himself from McKenzie, while Williams has impressed while showing value on offense as a fullback. Alexander sticks for a seventh season as a special-teams performer.
Cornerback (5): Leigh Bodden, Darius Butler, Devin McCourty, Jonathan Wilhite, Kyle Arrington Cornerback (5): Leigh Bodden, Darius Butler, Devin McCourty, Jonathan Wilhite, Kyle Arrington
Analysis: Plenty of promise with the top three on the depth chart. Wilhite and Arrington edge out 2008 second-round pick Terrence Wheatley mainly because of special-teams impact. Analysis: The top four are set. Wheatley loses out in a numbers game, but is continuing to battle Arrington from a standpoint of special-teams impact. Wheatley is still eligible for the practice squad, while Arrington isn't. That gives the team another option if Wheatley is released; however, as a former second-round pick he could be a target on the waiver wire.
Safety (4): Brandon Meriweather, Patrick Chung, Brandon McGowan, James Sanders Safety (4): Brandon Meriweather, Patrick Chung, Brandon McGowan, James Sanders
Analysis: Solid group. Sanders, who is an expensive insurance policy as a backup at $2.3 million, could be attractive to other NFL teams looking for experience at safety. Josh Barrett, claimed off waivers from the Broncos, looks ticketed for a reserve list and could factor into the mix if McGowan leaves as a free agent in 2011. Analysis: Sanders faces his first true roster battle since his rookie season. With special-teams maven Bret Lockett not on the practice fields for most of camp so far, Sanders is holding on to his job, but is seeing little time with the top unit. He would seem to be the most likely player on the team to be traded this preseason, although the Patriots value his leadership in the secondary.
Specialists (3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Jake Ingram Specialists (3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Jake Ingram
Analysis: Each player was the first at their position drafted. Their spots are secure. Analysis: None of these players have had competition this training camp.

Mike Reiss

Patriots reporter, ESPNBoston.com
  • Covered Patriots since 1997
  • Blogging on Pats since 2004
  • Joined ESPNBoston.com in 2009

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