How does Cutler stack up?
A closer look at Cutler's numbers compared with those of Orton and Ryan
So how did the Bears make out in the big quarterback trade? Not terribly.
ESPN Stats & Information analyzed the Bears' QB trade with the Denver Broncos entering this weekend's games. We examined Jay Cutler versus Kyle Orton in a variety of categories. Keep in mind, the Broncos also got first-round picks in 2009 (18th overall; DE Robert Ayers) and 2010, along with a third-round pick (84th overall) in 2009.
Record: Cutler is a healthy 3-1. Orton is 5-0. It's all about wins.
The luck: If you count a miracle 87-yard TD pass to Brandon Stokley, Orton doesn't need a four-leaf clover.
The defense: Orton hasn't had to win games by himself because he has had the NFL's No. 2 defense. The Bears rank 13th and are without Brian Urlacher.
Mistakes: Cutler has made too many -- he has five interceptions to Orton's one. Orton is tied with Aaron Rodgers and David Garrard for the league low in interceptions among regular starting quarterbacks (minimum 50 attempts). And that interception was on a Hail Mary pass to end the first half against New England.
Drops: Orton's receivers have dropped just four passes this season. Cutler's receivers have dropped twice as many.
Other ways to look at it:
A couple more notes on Cutler
Feast or famine? Often called a young gunslinger in the mold of Brett Favre, Cutler has been either feast or famine inside the 20 this season. Among passers with a minimum of 10 attempts, Cutler ranks 21st in the league with a passer rating of 73.7 in the red zone. Cutler and Josh Johnson are the only passers with two interceptions in the red zone. Still, a closer look at the numbers reveals that it's not all bad news for Cutler near the goal line, where he also is tied for second with the most TDs (6).
He just keeps getting better: Cutler also has improved every quarter this season. Cutler's passer rating by quarter:
First: 38.4
Second: 92.3
Third: 107.9
Fourth: 111.5
Three keys to the Falcons-Bears game
Start defending earlier: The Bears' defense has played well -- if you're watching after the first quarter. Chicago has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play in the first quarter, sixth-worst in the NFL. In fact, since losing Urlacher in Week 1, the Bears have allowed a touchdown on their opponents' first drive of the game each week. Cutler has done his job when the Bears have been behind (he's completing a whopping 70.4 percent of his passes when Chicago is trailing; just 55.7 when his team is tied or ahead).
Get pressure on Ryan: The Chicago defense will need to pressure Atlanta's second-year quarterback. Through four games, Ryan has been sacked only twice -- that's tied for the fewest sacks on a QB (minimum 50 attempts). Ryan has been able to burn opponents on long throws because he has had time. He is 7-for-19 with two TDs and no interceptions on throws between 21 and 40 yards (a perfect 158.3 passer rating). The good news is the Bears are fourth in the NFL with a team total 14 sacks, led by Adewale Ogunleye's 4.5.
Will the Falcons use the shotgun? Matt Ryan has been fairly good out of the shotgun formation this year, hitting 64.8 percent of his passes with a passer rating of 91.4 (the NFL average passer rating out of shotgun is 85.0). Yet the Falcons rarely use shotgun, only going to it on 22.8 percent of their plays. That ranks 30th in the league. The Falcons should take advantage of Ryan's success in shotgun.
