Posted by Peter Bodo, TENNIS.com
Four games. That was the total number won by Nicolas Massu and Alberto Martin in two intriguing first-round matches in the Australian Open. Massu begged three off Novak Djokovic and Martin stole one from Andy Murray, underscoring the notion that this tournament might be a breakout event for any number of the eager young guns who are expected to challenge the pecking order in tennis.
This is welcome news because the status quo at the top of the game is in need of shaking up. Guys like Ivan Ljubicic, Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Robredo, Mario Ancic, Tommy Haas (asterisk: he's had injury problems), David Nalbandian and even James Blake (asterisk: he seems a player engaged in some sort of tortoise-hare exercise) have all had ample opportunities to unhorse Roger Federer, or make big statements at Grand Slam events. The window of opportunity in tennis tends to be a small one; those players have failed to jump through it. Now they constitute a hierarchy begging to be upset. It's time to bring in fresh troops.
The new wave of contenders is really Rafael Nadal's generation. Djokovic, Murray, Richard Gasquet, Gael Monfils and Marcos Baghdatis are roughly within one year of Nadal, agewise (Nadal is 20). Tomas Berdych, often associated with this group, is a little older. The smart money says they're going to displace the current second tier, and that they may be a little bolder and more adventurous when it comes to playing Federer or even Nadal. This is the most interesting subtext that will play out in Melbourne over these next two weeks.
Baghdatis, of course, was a finalist last year; he's the most accomplished and best known in the group. Monfils has been very up and down; he seems to get too easily sidetracked from the job at hand, and he's a bit of a ham (but not in a good way). Berdych may have grown too comfortable in his niche as a dangerous but erratic talent; people have been predicting a breakthrough from him for three or four years now, which is two years too many. Gasquet seems too mercurial to put together two solid weeks of great, focused tennis. Baghdatis, Murray and Djokovic are the cream of the crop.
Baghdatis may be the best-suited for stardom of the three. He showed last year that he responds well to the pressure of big events, and you can hardly hold his second-round loss to Andre Agassi in the 2006 U.S. Open as a poor performance. That match is already part of the lore and legend of the game.
Overall, Baghdatis has the experience, Djokovic has the shots and Murray has the versatility and savvy (thanks partly but by no means entirely to his coach, Brad Gilbert). We're in the midst of a changing of the guard, even if the King (Federer) is not deposed. And when it happens, Nadal's generation will at last be a distinct entity.
