Posted by Kamakshi Tandon, TENNIS.com
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have been duopolizing the tour so thoroughly, it feels like the two spots in the French Open final have effectively already been reserved for them.
But even if we peg our chances of getting the Dream Final as high as 80 percent, that still leaves the rest of the field a 20 percent chance of upsetting the script and perhaps even walking away with the trophy. Who are the potential spoilers?
The chances of one player defeating either Federer or Nadal -- or both -- and ending up the winner look remote. Much more likely that it'll have to be a team effort -- an unexpected upset opening up the draw, and someone else taking advantage. And if we had teams, here's how they might look:
The Next Generation: For the next two weeks, that means Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet. Djokovic is having an excellent year all around, Berdych has unexpectedly come to life during the clay season, and home favorite Gasquet seems to be rounding the corner after some troubles earlier in the year. With lights-out play, they're all capable of knocking the Big Two off course -- and if they can stay out of Federer and Nadal's way, each is a potential semifinalist.
The Nearly Men: Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Gonzalez, Mikhail Youzhny and Ivan Ljubicic could give Federer or Nadal a bad scare if they're on, but the odds only look good for Davydenko, who gave Nadal all he could handle in the semifinals of Rome. Gonzalez is an outside shot if he can re-summon memories of his golden run in Australia -- and banish those of his lackluster performance against Nadal in the Rome final.
The Spanish Armada: With Nadal included, this group is spectacular. Even without him, they're still solid -- players like Carlos Moya (who took the first set against Federer in the Hamburg semifinals), Tommy Robredo, Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco can make life tough for anyone on clay. Though unlikely to beat Federer and Nadal in a best-of-five format, they could soften them up for others. Given a good draw, Robredo, Moya and Ferrero are also candidates to make a nice run of their own.
The Argentine Army: It's been hit with some unexpected problems of late. Gaston Gaudio, Guillermo Coria and David Nalbandian are in deep mental funks. Rising prospect Juan Martin del Potro has stalled temporarily. Even Guillermo Canas has lost some steam after a tremendous start to the year. But so deep is this group that they'll still have a couple of dangerous names lurking in the draw. Juan Ignacio Chela has been chugging along nicely, and Canas will be looking to regain his momentum at the first Grand Slam he's played since his return. If he ends up in Federer's half of the draw, it would be the tournament's most fascinating matchup this side of a Federer-Nadal final.
Players who coulda, woulda, shoulda been upset contenders in Paris but won't be include Marat Safin (still struggling), Lleyton Hewitt (great in Hamburg but best-of-five in Paris is a tougher ask), and Andy Roddick (two wins in the last five French Opens). Call these former Grand Slam champs The Fallen.
Other disappointments include Andy Murray (out with an unfortunate wrist injury), James Blake (2-2 on red clay this season) and Gael Monfils (mentally AWOL).
