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Thoughts, Ramblings, Useless information and Musings for Wednesday, May 30, 2007

I don't know if it's because he's hiding an injury or if he is pitching differently because he is trying to prevent injury. I don't know if he's just not as good this year or if other teams have now scouted him better.

What I do know is that Ben Sheets has red flags all over him. Trade him now, kids. Sell high. Thank me later.

Last night, Sheets went six innings, gave up three earned runs, walked no one and got the win. What's the problem, right?

Well, let's look closer. He struck out only three guys last night. In fact, his K/9 rate this year is 5.4. I want to show you something.

2004: 10.03
2005: 8.1
2006: 9.85
2007: 5.4

Those are Sheets' K/9 numbers the previous three seasons, and what he is currently doing. Let's look at two more numbers. Those numbers are "9" and "10."

Nine is the number of home runs Sheets gave up all of last season. Ten is the number he has already given up this season. His opponents' OBP and his pitches per inning are also higher than they've been in three years.

Look, I'm not saying dump him or sell him for a bag of magic beans or something. What I am saying is someone will pay full value for the name, and you should sell high while you can. Because the bottom is going to fall out soon.

You can't talk sell high without talking buy low, so I mentioned Richie Sexson on "First Take" today. Sexson has two home runs and 10 RBIs over his last seven games. Kevin Kouzmanoff is red-hot for all you NL-only leaguers. He's hitting .316 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs over the last week.

You know what's really fun? Seeing your guys hit a home run and steal a base. So thank Willie Harris, Jeremy Hermida, Randy Winn and … Jason Giambi? Yes, Jason Giambi. Remember, May is the month he has hit the fewest home runs over the past three years. Better days are coming.

… That Greg Dobbs now has five home runs and is hitting .300 on the year for deep NL-only leagues. His playing time will go down with Ryan Howard back, but he'll still pinch hit and play a little third base now.

… That Norris Hopper, mentioned yesterday, went 3-for-4 with a run scored while starting yesterday for Ryan Freel.

… That it was a good night for my Fantasy Forward last night. On the Fantasy Focus podcast yesterday, I suggested starting Ervin Santana (he was at home, it was obvious, but I'll take it) and Jeremy Guthrie at Kansas City while benching Jon Lieber against Arizona. The Diamondbacks hit over .300 against Lieber the last three seasons. I'm guessing it's even worse now.

… That as long as I am in self-congratulatory, ego-stroking mode, I might as well mention two sleeper catchers I was high on in the preseason that are having good seasons. I don't remember seeing a lot of other guys promoting Bengie Molina (.311 BA, 5 HR) and Jason Varitek (.290 BA, 5 HR). Both are still available in a lot of mixed leagues.

… That I so love me my Gorzy. Tom Gorzelanny now has a 2.39 ERA after going seven innings and giving up one earned run. He's young, so I'm not worried yet, but it's worth noting that he threw 120 pitches in the start.

… That while I was writing this, it was reported that Kobe Bryant asked for a trade. I may kill myself. We already made one boneheaded deal when we dealt Shaq for Lamar Odom, Caron Butler (who we then stupidly dealt for Kwame Brown) and Brian Grant's huge contract. They must not trade him. Under any circumstances. There is no way they will get equal value. Kobe is too much of a competitor to phone it in Vince Carter style. They must keep him. And get Jerry West there, stat.

… That the "Carlos Marmol to closer" talk has died down, but he can still pitch. He struck out four last night while throwing two scoreless innings.

… That it's not great, but at least it's better. Adam LaRoche is hitting .276 in May after going 3-for-4 with an RBI last night.

… That I don't care how many games he has like last night's. I'm not buying Matt Belisle.

… That since becoming a starter, Shawn Marcum is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts, with 21 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched. Last night he struck out six in six innings, giving up only two hits.

… That Ryan Braun went 2-for-5 with a steal. He already has two steals in less than a week. I might have to marry him.

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