Posted by Stephen Tignor, TENNIS.com
The tennis season goes out with a bang this weekend. A tennis superpower of the present, Russia, and one from the recent past, the United States, face off for the Davis Cup in Portland, Ore. The tie will pit a close-knit, well-known U.S. team against an ever-shifting band of talented-but-unpredictable Russians led by their master of puppets, captain Shamil Tarpischev. Davis Cup ties are tough to predict; they tend to take on a life of their own as the weekend progresses. But as the teams nail down their lineups, we'll try to identify five keys to a potentially wild weekend ahead.
1. The Tarpischev factor: The former pro has established himself as tennis' premier team captain, leading Russia's men to the Davis Cup title last year and its women to the Fed Cup this fall. He's not afraid to bench top players -- world No. 4 Nikolay Davydenko has been pulled in the middle of the team's last two ties -- and Tarpischev's results prove that he can trust his instincts. He's been typically cagey so far in talking about his lineup in Portland, but a singles win on opening day will give him a chance to show off his chess skills the rest of the weekend.
2. The Safin factor: Tarpischev says the DC hero of last year won't play this weekend, but his name has appeared on the team's rooming roster. In a move worthy of Bill Belichick, Tarpischev is forcing the U.S. to consider one extra, niggling factor in its preparation. While the Bryan brothers say they wouldn't be surprised to see Safin show up for doubles, it's unlikely.
3. The draw: If the Russians send out their two top players, Davydenko and Cup stalwart Mikhail Youzhny, the first day's draw may become significant. Neither Andy Roddick nor James Blake has ever lost to Davydenko (a combined 11-0), but Youzhny will be trouble for either of them. If, say, Roddick loses to Youzhny first, how will Blake, who has been shaky in Davis Cup over the years, react to an immediate must-win situation against a guy he should beat?
4. Roddick vs. history: This tie is Andy Roddick's chance to measure up in one way to the ghosts of U.S. greats past. Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras each won multiple Slams and a Cup or two. In the Federer era, this may be Roddick's last opportunity to do one of those two things. On balance, I think that will help Andy: He doesn't tend to get nervous in the key situations, and this weekend may be the key to how his entire career is remembered.
5. Home-court advantage: Davis Cup theoretically favors the home team more than any other competition because each country chooses the surface for its home ties. The U.S. lost on clay in Russia last year; this time they'll be on a much friendlier fast indoor hard court. Two problems: (1) The Russian team, particularly Youzhny and Dmitry Tursunov, is versatile enough to play well anywhere; and (2) In the last 10 DC finals, only six have been won by home teams.
