Posted by Tom Perrotta, TENNIS.com
If you're tempted to view last weekend's Davis Cup as Andy Roddick's ticket to tennis greatness -- his defining moment -- not so fast. Don't be surprised if Roddick wins another major or two in his career. I'd be more surprised if he doesn't.
Crazy, you say? It's understandable why you might think that. Roddick can't beat Roger Federer -- he's now lost to the world's best player 11 straight times and 15 out of 16. Rafael Nadal, whose fast-court game improves every year, beat Roddick in their last meeting on hard courts. So did Novak Djokovic, the 20-year-old Serb who passed Roddick in the rankings this year. Andy Murray has a winning record against Roddick, too (4-2). Against his best competition, Roddick hasn't been terribly impressive. So why the bullish outlook?
Several facts fall in Roddick's favor. He stays in shape and doesn't suffer many injuries. He doesn't beat himself (Roddick may not excel at as many shots as his fans want him to excel at, but he's rarely guilty of stupid mistakes). The most important reason, of course, is that a great serve tends to hold up longer than fast feet or superb defense. Pete Sampras, five years into retirement, just showed us what a great serve could do for a 35-year-old in his exhibitions against Federer. Goran Ivanisevic didn't win Wimbledon until 2001, when he was 29. Roddick's serve compares favorably to both of these men.
While most aficionados consider Sampras' serve the best in history, one can easily make a case for Roddick's. He has consistently matched or topped Sampras in percentage of service games held, first-serve percentage and break points saved, despite having a weaker forehand and far less skill at the net to back him up when his opponents do return the ball. Roddick has done this despite the fact that most players, including Sampras, say today's faster surfaces, from the lawns of Wimbledon to the pavement of Flushing, are slower than they once were.
Roddick, who celebrated his 25th birthday in August, has at least five years of top-level performance ahead of him. A lot can happen in five years; other players can slump, get hurt or lose motivation. When Roddick won the 2003 U.S. Open, everything broke his way -- Federer lost early, he had a favorable draw and David Nalbandian hurt himself after taking a two-set lead in the semifinals. Andre Agassi won several majors by staying in shape and hanging around while things went wrong for other players. Roddick can do the same.
One last thing that people tend to forget about Roddick: Of all the players who are suffering through the Federer era -- the most dominant period in the sport's history -- not one has suffered as much as Roddick. He could have six major titles right now: two at the U.S. Open (he lost to Federer in the 2006 final), three at Wimbledon (he lost to Federer in 2004 and 2005 finals and the 2003 semifinal), and one at the Australian Open (he lost to Federer in last year's semifinal).
If someone else takes care of Federer -- it's bound to happen one of these days -- Roddick's second major won't look so out of reach.
