Goals gone Wild

Friday, December 21, 2007 | Print Entry

Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft, ESPN.com

Wow. Five goals for Marian Gaborik! Five!

OK, I admit, I had to shuffle over to my fantasy hockey team for just a moment before continuing. Nothing pleases the fantasy owner more than seeing a historic night like that on his (or her) scoresheet. Big Gaborik fan; he's almost always on my team.

Anyway, here's how rare, how special, this kind of night is: The last time anyone matched Gaborik's output in a single night, it was Sergei Fedorov, nearly 11 years ago, on Dec. 26, 1996, in an overtime game. The last time it happened in regulation? Mario Lemieux potted five goals on March 26, 1996. Those were two special players.

More great stats, courtesy of Vincent Masi: Gaborik's is the 55th five-goal game in NHL history; that means it has happened roughly once every 1.64 seasons! It's also the Wild's first five-goal game, and not once in the former Minnesota North Stars' 26 years did one of their players score that many in a home game.

Gaborik also extended his goal-scoring streak to four games; he's now on pace for 43, and that'd represent a career high. It's a testament to the 25-year-old's talent. He was a 38-goal scorer two years ago, and has long had this kind of upside. The problem for him, though, has always been injuries. Gaborik's best year in terms of games was 81 in 2002-03, and he hasn't appeared in more than 65 since. In other words, he's an elite fantasy player when healthy, but like baseball's Ken Griffey Jr. or football's Donovan McNabb, he's injury prone. If you can live with that kind of player -- I always seem to sign up for the pain and the pleasure (granted, only for him) -- stick with the guy. But if you're expecting better than 65 games, you're probably kidding yourself.

Oh, other things did happen on Thursday night, though. Let's take a look:

The Rangers' Henrik Lundqvist was the unfortunate victim of Gaborik's monster game. It's the second time in his past four starts he has allowed five or more goals, though to be fair, he has two shutouts during that span, too. Of note: The shutouts came in his two home games, against division rivals, the meltdowns in his two road contests, against out-of-division teams. That's not too distressing a trend. I'm not worried.

Lightning rookie Karri Ramo, a preseason Calder Trophy candidate, stopped 31 of 32 shots in his first career NHL start, quite a turnaround from the awful performances of Johan Holmqvist and Marc Denis of late. Ramo might be the most appealing fantasy choice of the bunch the remainder of the year, and that's even if he's not necessarily up to stay. I see much more keeper-league than 2007-08 value in him, but teams with the bench spots to afford it should pick him up as a possible matchup play looking forward.

Sticking with Calder candidates, remember when Nicklas Backstrom -- the Capitals forward, not the Wild goalie -- was looking like the year's most disappointing rookie? In his first 12 games he had no goals, five assists and was averaging 13 minutes, 42 seconds ice time. Well, with a one-goal, one-assist performance on Thursday, he has five goals, nine assists and an average of 19:22 ice time in his past 14 contests, much closer to his preseason predictions. That's a point-per-game rate, well within reach for him looking forward, and hey, folks, he remains available in better than 60 percent of ESPN leagues!

It's amazing what the right line combination can do for a player. Mark Recchi's one-assist night on Thursday isn't much to get excited about, though that does bring his numbers to three goals and five points in five games since the Thrashers claimed him off waivers. He's averaging just better than 18 minutes of ice time and skating alongside Ilya Kovalchuk, not at all a bad situation to exploit for fantasy.

Speaking of favorable line combinations, let's turn to Recchi's former team, the Penguins, for a moment. Colby Armstrong managed three assists and a plus-4 rating on Thursday, after being placed on a line with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Unfortunately, coach Michel Therrien has been known to shuffle his lines regularly, though I have a hunch this effort should ensure that, at the very least, he'll remain a linemate of Crosby or Malkin, if not both. If you've got an open bench spot, I'd stash and monitor him.

Ah, the famous "Gordie Howe hat trick" ... And of all people to notch one, on Thursday, it was Sidney Crosby, only the game's most exciting young star! He dropped the gloves for his first career fight, tacking on a goal, two assists and a plus-3. Consider the PIMs a rarity for Crosby, but like with Gaborik, these games are things to be cherished for fantasy.

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.


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