Posted by Peter Bodo, TENNIS.com
Any fisherman in the north country will happily tell you that spring is the season of ice-out, when frozen rivers and lakes come back to life. It looks like tennis might be in the middle of a similar renewal at the end of the always fascinating U.S. early hard-court season.
The dominant theme that emerged in the past month is that while Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are still the class of the ATP, their icy grip on the major titles is melting. The process began when Novak Djokovic won the Australian Open. But while that was significant (and foreshadowed), it was surprising that he didn't have to beat either of the top two players, Federer and Nadal, respectively, in the final.
It also became clear in subsequent weeks that Djokovic didn't merely join those two luminaries to form a dominant triumvirate. As Jo-Wilfried Tsonga faded, a host of eager, familiar but somewhat unexpected faces turned up to make the headlines usually reserved for the dominant stars. Who would have predicted that Mardy Fish would reach the Indian Wells final, or that Nikolay Davydenko would deny Nadal in the championship match in Miami -- after Djokovic was bounced out in the second round by Kevin Anderson?
So here we are, in the fourth month of a year that began with an omen: Nadal winning just one measly game against Mikhail Youzhny in the Chennai final. It's April and neither Federer nor Nadal has a title yet, and that's no April fool's joke.
The two most telling matches in the just completed bicoastal hard-court mini-slam were Fish's win over Federer in Indian Wells and Davydenko's Miami upset of Nadal. Suddenly, any notion that Federer had bounced back from his bout of mono with gale force was shattered, along with the natural corollary: If Federer can't win at a Masters site, Nadal will. And while Djokovic won at Indian Wells, his meek exit in Miami suggested that he's not quite ready to be as dominant as his two main rivals have been until the beginning of this year.
The WTA situation is comparable, albeit on a smaller scale. Justine Henin remains the woman to beat, but you have to wonder if her career year in 2007 hasn't left her drained. A great deal has been made of Maria Sharapova having lost just one match this year, but guess what? Serena Williams also has just one loss (to Jelena Jankovic at the Australian Open). And the mini-slam demonstrated that Ana Inanovic and Jankovic continue to make great progress as legitimate challengers to Henin, Sharapova and Williams.
The hard-luck champion in these scenarios has been Nadal, although you can hardly call a semi and a final in the two big hard-court events a disappointment. But the losses to Djokovic (Indian Wells) and Davydenko blocked him from gaining significant ground on Federer or improving his credentials -- good as they are -- on hard courts. Nadal did everything but win a mini-slam title, and that must sting a little.
All in all, it looks like Federer, Nadal and Henin are suffering from champions' fatigue. Spring has sprung.
Peter Bodo
