Posted by Peter Bodo, TENNIS.com
Now that the grass court season is upon us, let's get down to the question on everyone's mind. And this one has been quietly knocking around in the back of peoples' minds since about the middle of the second week of Roland Garros. Will Rafael Nadal, for whom yet another French Open title was a gimme, win Wimbledon?
You'd be surprised at how many pundits not only believe that he can, but also feel that he will. There's no other way to put this: it's a major diss of The Mighty Fed, and part of a general -- and inevitable -- backlash against the record he's created. Powerful undercurrents are working here to undermine the pilings on which Roger Federer built his otherworldly record and reputation; a sense that Nadal's time has come and that, well, nothing lasts forever.
Unfortunately, Nadal isn't buying any of it. He still spends almost all of his air time praising Federer, rather than trying to bury him. And that's exactly why he'll be so dangerous. He may be a young gunslinger, but he isn't a brash one who's going to get drilled full of holes because he's infatuated with his own abilities.
Any vibe this powerful tends to take on a life of its own, and recent events have only served to accelerate its growth. Federer has won just one third-tier tournament this year (Estoril), and in that one, his final opponent (Nikolay Davydenko) retired. Last year at this time, Federer had three titles, including one Grand Slam (Australia) and one Masters Series (Hamburg). Forget all that stuff about mononucleosis and "gathering information." The heat has been turned up on Federer in a way that he hasn't really experienced.
As Andy Roddick recently told me, "Nothing has changed in terms of what Roger can do with a racket in his hand … but I know from experience that having to talk about a "slump" or being asked if you're "struggling" every single day takes its toll. It's impossible not to start thinking about that stuff."
This raises an interesting issue that has been lurking in the background for some time. Federer has shown that he can gut out matches with the best of them, but he hasn't dealt with what might be called psychological adversity. This is partly because he's been so danged superior -- it isn't his fault that he rolls through opponents barely breaking a sweat. But that begs the question: What happens when he can no longer do that? We're getting to the point where Federer will answer that question for us.
If you saw how Nadal toughed out a good win over Ivo Karlovic on fast grass at Queens Friday (three tiebreaker sets, Nadal winning the decisive one, 7-4), you know he's not going away. He's trailed Federer a long, long way, and if he hasn't really closed on him in the big picture, it's only because of Nadal's post-Wimbledon tail off. But in the critical Roland Garros to Wimbledon gap, he's closed it considerably.
And Novak Djokovic has joined the hunt as well, which will give Federer that much more to worry about. Djokovic also has looked persuasive at Queens, and don't forget resurgent Andy Roddick. Now more than ever, it looks like the long knives are out. And Nadal has the sharpest blade of them all.
Peter Bodo
