Posted by Peter Bodo, TENNIS.com
For nearly three critical years, only one thing has stood between Roger Federer and a degree of domination previously unseen in the game of tennis. That has been Rafael Nadal. This is, in and of itself, extraordinary: The man who may wind up acknowledged as the popular choice as the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) can't consistently beat one guy in his own era.
But now there might be another thing standing in Federer's drive to shatter what significant records remain to be broken: career fatigue. In the long run, Nadal's emergence as Federer's rival in 2005 might have bought Pete Sampras, Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg and other all-time greats just the breathing room they need to avoid being flung into Federer's shadow. Nadal has held off Federer just often enough, and long enough, to help pitch him into what might be the definitive crisis of his career.
Federer fans will recoil at the word "crisis." After all, but for the excruciatingly close loss to Nadal at Wimbledon, it would be business as usual -- Federer conceding Nadal the red clay while using Wimbledon and the U.S. Open to continue his assault on Pete Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam singles titles (Federer has 12). But the Swiss star's listless loss Wednesday in Toronto suggests that we are no longer doing business as usual.
A number of frustrations have closed on The Mighty Fed at one time, suggesting that the recent Wimbledon final was not just an epic for the ages, but perhaps a watershed moment in two careers (Federer's and Nadal's) and one rivalry (theirs). If you're familiar with pop lingo, Wimbledon might be where Federer "jumped the shark."
For one thing, Federer will be 27 soon, and that's right around the time that even great players discover that winning majors can suddenly appear as difficult as it once seemed natural, if not exactly easy. It's the period when they turn a little sour about various aspects of their jobs: dealing with the press, making good on their commitments (how many danged times do I have to win Cincinnati, anyway?), the machinations of peers counting the days until traces of blood appear in the water, signaling the beginning of a feeding frenzy.
This Wimbledon-Toronto one-two punch has drastically affected Federer's chances to finish No. 1 for a fifth consecutive year (even Federer die-hards are hard-pressed to rate his chances as greater than 25 percent). A tumble from the top spot would put the kibosh on one significant record Federer is chasing -- Sampras' six consecutive years at No. 1. It also seriously damages his future prospects of finishing the year No. 1 as often as did Sampras.
The all-time Grand Slam singles title record is still in Federer's sights, but the three more he needs will be the three toughest he's ever had to earn. The speed at which his march to immortality is turning from seeming cakewalk to bitter, grungy, thankless slog is striking, and turning a deaf ear to his doubters is high on his to-do list.
But this next year or two also embodies a great opportunity, because the one thing Federer has yet to triumph over in his career is serious adversity. If he doesn't rally and produce the classic Act III of a career champ (proving all the naysayers wrong), he'll be described less as a great and inspirational competitor than as a gifted and prolific talent who enjoyed one of the most dizzying career rides ever taken in the game.
The job won't be easy -- those are shark-infested waters out there.
Peter Bodo
