Posted by Peter Bodo, TENNIS.com
CINCINNATI -- I'm out here in southern Ohio, where the Western & Southern Group Financial Masters begins Monday. No, that isn't a stockbroker throwdown to determine which master of the universe who trained on Wall Street (the financial industry's equivalent of the Nick Bollettieri Tennis Academy) might actually get a bonus at the end of this dismal year for the economy.
But it is the place where Rafael Nadal will vie to become the master of the tennis universe -- a title Roger Federer has held for four-plus years. Thanks to Nadal's win at the Rogers Cup in Toronto on Sunday, the 22-year-old Mallorcan can unseat Federer at the top. To accomplish that, Nadal will have to win here in the heat and haze -- and Roger Federer will have to lose before the semifinal round. So what are the chances that will happen?
So-so, I'd say, mainly because the third wheel in the trio at the top of the rankings -- Novak Djokovic -- is in Nadal's half of the draw. I expect Djokovic to be really dangerous here. Hard courts are his favorite, and Djokovic is fresh, healthy and presumably eager to build on his great start to 2008 after two significant recent misfires -- at Wimbledon and last week in Toronto.
Ever since Nadal and Federer produced that barn-burner Wimbledon final, all eyes have been on them; specifically, on the tug-of-war over the top ranking that was sure to ensue after Nadal's win in London. To some degree, Djokovic has been overlooked. But his third-wheel status makes him human buzz kill. And there's an awful lot of buzz to kill this week.
If Nadal were to lose to Djokovic (it would have to occur in the semis), absolutely nobody should be shocked. Nadal has played a lot of tennis since the beginning of the clay-court circuit, and he has managed to survive his first match in Cincinnati just once in four events (in 2006, when he reached the quarters). By contrast, he's won in Canada twice. Traditionally, Cincy is the place where Nadal's hard-court wheels start to fall off, and he then begins his late-season fade. Of course, it could be different this year. Can you say "motivation"?
Nadal has The Mighty Fed on the ropes, and he's too combative and strong to yield to the urge to settle for a 15th-round clinch when he could score the knockout. Let's face it, he's playing with house money. (He's almost sure to take the No. 1 ranking from Federer soon, no matter what happens here.) It would be unlike him to calculate the odds and patiently wait for them to play out. Nadal is much more likely to go for the swift, efficient, conclusive kill.
A win over Djokovic would be further testament to Nadal's competitive zeal and prowess. He's only the third player in ATP history to win 30 titles by age 22. And we're not talking about cleaning up on the "who cares?" circuit here, either: The résumé is littered with Grand Slam and Masters Series titles. If Nadal were an NBA or NFL player, he would be the guy who says, "Just give me the danged ball."
It won't be easy for Nadal to win here. The gifted hard-court players in his quarter of the draw include David Ferrer, Tommy Haas, Mikhail Youzhny and dangerous newcomer Marin Cilic (and let's throw in Gael Monfils). He'll need to survive all that, just to get to … Djokovic.
But here's the thing with Nadal: He's thrived on adversity. Federer might hold the record for consecutive weeks ranked No. 1 (234), but Nadal holds a record of his own -- 157 weeks at No. 2. He's -- by far -- the greatest player never to hold the No. 1 ranking in ATP Tour history.
This week, history might be rewritten.
Peter Bodo
