Minutes away from boarding my flight back home to Toronto, it's been an interesting week in Stockholm to be sure.
The NHL will be back on this side of the ocean with more teams and more games with each passing year. So, get used to it folks!
Before I left, I took the time to sift through all the clever responses to the Question of the Week: Which of last season's playoff teams in the Western Conference won't be back in the playoffs this season?
By far, the team that was singled out the most by you was the Colorado Avalanche. Nashville and Minnesota were also popular targets, but not nearly as much as the Avs.
Most of the comments were all well thought out (especially a great analysis post from Otto1973), but I can only highlight a few:
Michael Martin/Getty Images
Joe Sakic and the Avs? You say their season will end in April.
Pengwin7: Pierre, I want to kick your butt in "The Hockey News" pool, OK? Make a league and invite us! Minnesota is OUT. They lost too much goal scoring in the offseason. The new schedule means eight less games against the declining Northwest. I say Calgary and Edmonton pass them by. Colorado is OUT. 13th or 14th place for them in the West. They are going to give up a TON of goals. Same divisional scheduling argument as Minnesota. (Disclaimer: This is a sans-Forsberg comment.)
My take: Pengwin7, the reason I started a media-only hockey pool in Toronto is so I don't have to partake with fans like you who make a living embarrassing me in pools!
I'll touch on the Wild here since there's more Avs to go through below. Can't argue against the fact losing Brian Rolston and Pavol Demitra, and only replacing them with Andrew Brunette, hurts the offense. But I do believe Mikko Koivu and Pierre-Marc Bouchard will have career seasons on offense, which helps offset that a bit. One of the most overlooked facets in examining offseason changes is improvement from within, players who are ready to make bigger contributions. It's not just about free-agent signings.
Still, I'm equally concerned about the Wild, as many of you are. You can't really argue they're any better. The Marian Gaborik situation looms large. If he stays in Minny and has a huge season, then, to me, they're probably a playoff team. If he's dealt in a package that helps the Wild more long term than now, then I have to take them out of the spring equation.
The latest out of Minny is that contract talks with Gaborik have stalled. The Wild had hoped to sign him before the start of the regular season, or else ...
Hockeyhick970: Simply put, Colorado is the one team that will not make the playoffs for sure. The other team is Nashville, but they find a way to always keep competitive even when they lose talent, and this year is no different with the loss of Radulov and the status of goaltending (counting on Dan Ellis is like thinking your stocks are in a good position). In the end, though, with a revamped Chicago team and an established Detroit team, the Central Division will be Nashville's downfall and they will miss the playoffs, but only by a couple points.
Bigraqu47: I'm a huge Avs fan, but I don't think they're going back to the playoffs. They don't have goaltending or depth on offense. If any of their top-six forwards go down, they won't score goals. Also, Tony Granato wasn't the answer at coach in 2003-04 and he won't be the answer now.
Alcott Yubolsov: what's with all the hate on the avs? sure the goaltending doesn't look that good, but it isn't all that bad either. colorado has a strong defense with clark being back. we still have hannan, foote and liles, so it's not looking that bad. ... avs did just fine last year and this year will be no different. we worked through all the b.s. injuries like we always have and still found a way to kick the crap out of the wild in the first round. also, if you really think that losing jose theodore in net is going to bring down this team, then you obviously did not see any games with him.
My take: Funny how a year ago at this time, no one thought Jose Theodore could stop a beach ball. Now, he's the No. 1 reason people think the Avs are toast because he's gone. Such is life in the NHL! Today's perception is rarely tomorrow's. Still, the fact is Colorado's goaltending is comprised of two netminders that lost their starting jobs to other guys last season -- Peter Budaj to Theodore and Andrew Raycroft to Vesa Toskala. That's not terribly inspiring. I agree with the last reader (ballsy comment) that the Avs blue line is pretty deep. No question there. I don't think the free fall will be quite as dramatic as so many people believe, but we're talking about a team that will be in that five-to-six team race for seventh and eighth.
Maybell009: Part of this is a homer pick, but I see this being the first season Columbus makes the playoffs. Ken [Hitchcock] has done a great job putting the pieces in place and I think they clinch a No. 7 or 8 spot this year. Defense is an obvious weak area (lost Hainsey, gained Commodore, which isn't really an improvement) and that will hinder them, but I think their goaltending coupled with the pickups of Umberger, Filatov, and Huselius will help them clinch this year.
My take: Lots of change in Columbus this year, but how much better are the Jackets in reality? They're weak at center, which is always where a pro scout begins when analyzing the competition. Teams win down the middle and in goal. For the latter, Pascal Leclaire was tremendous last season and we don't see any reason for that to change. This is an improved team; GM Scott Howson had a solid offseason and Ken Hitchcock is one of the NHL's best coaches. If they were in the Eastern Conference, I'd probably put them in the playoffs. But the West is best and I think they're behind Chicago and Edmonton in terms of non-playoff teams trying to make the next step. Like Tampa in the East, lots of changes doesn't necessarily mean hugely improved.
Akmnua: Edmonton and Chicago replace Nashville and Colorado. Nashville has too many issues off ice and Colorado is too thin -- one big injury and they're done. Minnesota wins the NW for one reason: Gaborik = $$$. Gaborik will have a monster year playing for the big money on the open market. Also, the Minnesota defense, which is the heart of the team, is still solid.
My take: I also see the Oilers and Hawks back in spring hockey and Nashville out. Like I said, I'm 50-50 on Colorado. I've picked the Oilers to win the Northwest Division, that's how high I am on their upside and development, especially if Mathieu Garon can duplicate last season's breakout year. In all honesty, I might be overselling the Oil one year before they are really ready for the limelight, but in my business, you tend to take chances with your predictions!
Kingisback21: Vancouver will make the playoffs. Yes, I am a Canucks fan, but if the D is healthy, they will help Luongo win many games, even if we do still lack offense. We lost Naslund and Morrison, but I think Demitra and Bernier will match the point total for last year ... We didn't have any offense when we won the NW Division, we won it with Luongo and a strong D ... and this will be the case this year with a healthy D, and our offense will improve. And how can that one guy put Edmonton to win the NW? Get real -- they are a year or two away from competing for the top spot in the NW. I'm curious to see how Gagner and Cogliano do this year.
My take: Kingisback21 makes an excellent point on the Canucks' blue line. Ohlund, Bieksa, Salo, Mitchell -- they all spent time on injured reserve last season. If they're healthy, that makes a huge difference. And I think Roberto Luongo is better focused this season after dealing with a personal situation at home. As an expecting father myself, I'm happy things worked out for him there!
I view the Canucks like the Avs, they are in that group of teams battling for seventh and eighth. I think new GM Mike Gillis is making some interesting changes, both on and off the ice, but unless he immediately addresses his offensive woes this season, most of his changes will be felt longer term and I doubt this team can go past the first round of the playoffs.
44stampede: Nashville, Minnesota and Colorado. The teams who take their place: Edmonton, Chicago and Vancouver. It will all be close, so stop whining if your team isn't "predicted" to make it. It will, as always, depend on injuries. Calgary might not even make it depending on which Kipper shows up.
Order:
1-Detroit
2-Dallas
3-Edmonton
4-San Jose
5-Anaheim
6-Calgary
7-Vancouver
8-Chicago
My take: I want to focus on a comment 44stampede made about Kiprusoff. Very astute. Because every scout you talk to around the NHL begins and ends his analysis with the Flames goalie. His play dipped last season. It's like the elephant in the room in Calgary. If he doesn't get back to his Vezina Trophy ways, the Flames are in big trouble. If he does, this is a tough and gritty team led by one of my favorite players in the NHL, Jarome Iginla. It all rests on the goalie.
Yellowcard614: As a Sharks fan, I want to put out a formal request to the media: Do NOT pick them to do anything this year. They need to try out the whole "dark horse/underdog" thing. As the trendy pick to win it all the last few years, they've absolutely choked in the second round each time. Hopefully, the new coach they picked up from the Red Wings will be able to bring his winning ways and, most importantly, toughness to San Jose. That said, the Red Wings are the clear favorites to repeat this year. The best got better with the addition of Hossa. I don't like Chicago as much as everyone else does (I've seen Campbell play and I was elated to see him go), but I think they will slip into the playoffs. As for Colorado, don't count out any team with Joe Sakic on it.
My take: I love this post! Dear Yellowcard614, I am one of those national columnists that has picked the Sharks for the past two years and I'm doing it again! There's no way I'm giving up now. Truth be told, I still think Detroit remains the team to beat, but I hate picking the obvious No. 1 contender. So I never do. The Sharks may finally get over the hurdle now that everyone has given up on them. I love the Dan Boyle and Rob Blake additions -- two Stanley Cup winners. They know what it takes. Todd McLellan goes behind the bench after helping Mike Babcock coach the Wings to glory. This is the year for the Sharks!
Pierre LeBrun
