Posted by Brendan Roberts
What the Cubs did to turn around Ryan Dempster, I'll never know. But they'll get the chance to further reap the fruits of their labor after re-signing Dempster to a four-year, $52 million deal Tuesday.
Scouts tend to believe that a super-wild starting pitcher will remain a wild starting pitcher. Bobby Witt and Todd Van Poppel are two great examples of power arms with strikeout potential who never could harness their control. And when the cannon-armed Dempster walked 112 guys -- 14 more than the next-highest mark -- and struck out 171 for Florida in 2001, the Bobby Witt comparisons were in full effect. Sure, Dempster was only 24 and was unrefined as a pitcher, but things only got worse when he was shipped to Cincinnati in 2002. It culminated in him walking 70 batters in 115-plus innings for the Reds in 2003 before having his season cut short by Tommy John surgery.
You know the rest of the story. He reinvented himself as a solid, though still a bit wild, closer with the Cubs, eventually begging his way back to the rotation for 2008. The move worked. Dempster finished in the top 10 in wins, posting a 17-6 record. He finished 12th in the majors in strikeouts. His 2.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP were the best season marks in his career, including his years as a reliever. And he did this much to the delight of fantasy owners, many of whom were able to get him in the late rounds of a mixed-league draft (his average draft position was 209.4, or the end of the 21st round in 10-team leagues).
Now, I have seen some differences in Dempster in recent seasons. First of all, the Cubs have adjusted his mechanics. Other than that weird "glove seizure" thing he does in the early stages of his windup, he is a lot "quieter," as the scouts would say. As a starter, he no longer tries to overthrow, and has become adept at getting ground balls. Also, the Cubs did a good job in 2008 of lifting him before he got to his fatigue point, when his pitches tend to elevate in the zone. Only four times in 33 starts did he pitch more than seven innings. And finally, Dempster appears to be in better shape than he was five years ago.
The Cubs have figured out how to use him, he'll stay where he belongs ... so he's ready for another good run, right? I'm just not buying it. First of all, I always have my doubts when a guy has an unbelievable season during his contract year. Now what does he do in the first year of a four-year deal? Secondly, the control problems. I just don't believe they're completely gone, and I have years of examples (plus scouts) to back that. And finally, how will his arm feel now that he's back for a second year of starting after topping out at 92 innings from 2004 to 2007 and then throwing 206 2/3 innings last season?
Dempster is 32, which isn't old, but is hardly young for a power arm. While I'm impressed with the season he had and what the Cubs have done for him, I still think part of his 2008 success was just simply being a starting pitcher for the (regular-season) juggernaut that was the 2008 Chicago Cubs, who finished 97-64.
To be honest, I was not remotely interested in Dempster heading into 2008. He proved me wrong, and I must learn from that. But I still wouldn't be interested in him before the middle rounds of a mixed-league draft. I'd target him as a No. 3 starting pitcher around the 11th round of a mixed draft. Because no matter how well he did in 2008, the 10 major league seasons before that matter, too.
Brendan Roberts is a contributing writer/editor for ESPN Fantasy.
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