A few weeks ago, a progressive and bright general manager predicted that no fewer than 20 teams would see their on-field decisions impacted by the nation's economic trouble, a guesstimate that, at the moment, seemed stunning in its scope.
But now we know for sure that
all 30 teams are being dramatically shaped by the financial problems, whether they have money or not. The confirmation of this came with word that the Yankees
decided not to offer arbitration to right fielder
Bobby Abreu.
This is the clearest sign, as yet, of how baseball's hot stove has gone cold this winter.
| Olney's news and notes |
• Phils decline Burrell, Moyer arbitration
• Mariners offer Ibanez arbitration
• Teams concerned about spring revenue
• Springer won't be back in St. Louis
• Rice on Hall ballot for last time
Around the majors with Buster Olney 
|
A month ago, the thinking within the Yankees' hierarchy was that offering arbitration to Abreu was an easy choice, a slam dunk. At 34 years old, Abreu was a productive player for them in 2008, hitting .296 with 20 homers and 100 RBIs, and an on-base percentage of .371. The thinking, a month ago, was that Abreu would probably command a multi-year deal from some other team -- probably in the range of $10-12 million a year -- after earning $16 million last season, and if he took that deal, the Yankees would get draft-pick compensation.
If Abreu accepted arbitration, the Yankees would have a productive player on a one-year deal for something in the range of $16-18 million, the kind of thing they would have embraced in recent seasons. It's the kind of gamble the Yankees are in a position to make, as the pre-eminent money powerhouse in the sport.
But as teams like San Diego and Colorado began their payroll cutbacks, the economic dominoes began falling in baseball. Often it has been written that U.S. society, at large, reflects the shifts that have occurred in baseball, most notably the destruction of the color barrier by
Jackie Robinson and
Larry Doby in 1947. This winter, however, it is Major League Baseball that is following: As the Dow Jones has dropped and fears have mounted, many teams have essentially decided to not spend money, like most U.S. consumers.
A month ago, the notion of Abreu as a $16 million player didn't seem so outrageous. In the current climate, however, executives with other teams believe Abreu might be fortunate to make $8 million. It appears that no other team will offer Abreu anything close to what he would make in arbitration with the Yankees.
So the Yankees could no longer justify gambling an arbitration offer to Abreu for the sake of draft picks.
It isn't that the Yankees don't have money. But the perceived value of players is plummeting rapidly within the industry, and just like investors who are waiting to see when the bottom of the stock market is really bottom -- the Dow Jones didn't hit bottom at 10,000, nor at 9,000, apparently -- teams are waiting to see how far the salaries will fall.
For some clubs, this approach is rooted in their own bottom-line economic reality. They believe that fewer fans are going to pay for their product next year, so they are cutting payroll in anticipation of that tsunami. For other teams, the approach is strategic: Clubs like the Yankees might be in a very good position financially, but why pay a dollar for something that might have 50 cents' value in two months?
Three months ago, if you had told anyone that
Francisco Rodriguez might actually have to consider a three-year deal for something in the range of $10-11 million a year, you would have been deemed insane. But that might turn out to be the case, some executives believe. Two months ago no one would have thought that Ben Sheets might be best served by taking one year of arbitration. The landscape has shifted, as nothing happens.
"There is
almost no talk," a high-ranking NL official said Monday evening. "Think about all the proposed deals we've seen at Thanksgiving in the past -- Theo [Epstein] flying out to Arizona to negotiate with
[Curt] Schilling, the
A-Rod talks with Boston, all kinds of stuff. But the biggest news out of last weekend was that [Rays coach] Tim Bogar was hired by the Red Sox. Nothing is happening. Everybody is just sitting and waiting to see."
Over the past 48 hours, two general managers explained how their intention had been to target a major player and spend aggressively this winter. But the fears of the slowdown have locked them in place. "The best thing to do right now might be to not spend," an AL general manager said. "What happens if you go out and sign a player to a multi-year deal, and then in two months, his salary is completely out of whack with the market? What do you tell your owner then?"
CC Sabathia is going to be paid big dollars, and so is
Mark Teixeira, and
A.J. Burnett. But for most free agents -- and for fans following the typically red-hot free-agent market -- there will be nothing to do but wait in the weeks ahead, until teams start to decide when the market has bottomed out.
"Anybody who thinks the economy isn't affecting baseball isn't paying attention," an AL GM said Monday night.
Around the majors with Buster Olney
Buster Olney
