The last time that the agent for Manny Ramirez spoke with Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti, Barack Obama was on television in the background, making his acceptance speech on the night he was elected president. Since then, the Dodgers withdrew that two-year, $45 million offer to Ramirez. On Monday, they offered him arbitration, all without any conversation between Colletti and Scott Boras.
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Executives around baseball wonder if that will change in the next few days, because they are having a difficult time envisioning how Ramirez would make more in salary in 2009 than if he accepted arbitration. He made $20 million last season -- although the present-day value was just a little more than $17 million -- and following a historic performance in which Ramirez hit .396 for the Dodgers in two months, driving in 53 runs in 53 games, his arbitration award would be breathtaking. Boras would be in position to set a new and stunning standard through that process, and could ask for
A-Rod money.
But accepting arbitration would represent a staggering surrender for Ramirez, who had hoped for a nine-figure contract, and for Boras, who has been talking a deal for as long as six years for the 36-year-old outfielder. One year for $28 million is a long way from four years for $100 million, or six years for $150 million. Some friends of Ramirez do not believe that he will allow Boras to take arbitration, as tempting as it may be. "This is not going to be an easy time for Scott," a friend of Ramirez said.
The Dodgers now are perfectly positioned. They have twice dangled Ramirez opportunities for record-setting contracts -- the first being the $45 million offer, which would have established a new standard for outfielders, and the second being the arbitration. If Ramirez accepts the arbitration, the Dodgers would have only a one-year obligation on the aging slugger, and while none of the Dodgers staffers would ever say it out loud, keeping Ramirez on a one-year deal, with the carrot of free agency in front of him, might be the best way to keep him running hard.
If he doesn't accept arbitration, they can say, legitimately,
Hey, we really tried to keep him. They are willing to risk paying Ramirez as much as $30 million, which would seem to be the high end of any arbitration award, for just one season. If he signed elsewhere, most likely with a second-division team, the Dodgers would get two draft picks as compensation, not bad considering that to date they haven't paid Ramirez a dime in salary.
There has been a push from the media in L.A. for the Dodgers to go to a third or fourth year to sign Ramirez, but a question that should be considered is this: Who, exactly, is competing with the Dodgers' offers? What force in the market would appear to compel them to go beyond what they have on the table? And wouldn't it be poor management to compete with one's own offer?
Boras mentioned earlier this offseason, in speaking with reporters, his belief that Major League Baseball is beyond the reach of the nation's economic trouble. But on the face of it, the negotiating landscape for Ramirez beyond the Dodgers' offer of arbitration appears to be very ugly.
Many of the traditional big-money teams won't be involved. The Red Sox aren't interested, of course, and the owners of the Mets are faced with the real concern that their new ballpark is named for a company
that has been involved in bailout talks, as Richard Sandomir wrote this morning; internally, the Mets are talking very conservatively, reserving their available cash for pitching. If you thought the Yankees might emerge as a Ramirez bidder, keep in mind that they already have
Xavier Nady,
Hideki Matsui and
Johnny Damon as corner outfielders, and earlier this week, they decided not to offer Bobby Abreu arbitration because of the risk that he might get $16 million a year. Ramirez might wish for a big Yankees offer, but New York is not suddenly going to generate a $100 million proposal for him, or even anything remotely close to what Ramirez could make in arbitration with the Dodgers.
And the prices in the corner outfield market are collapsing. There had been talk during the summer of
Adam Dunn's getting $15 million a year this winter, but now his salary range might be little more than half of that.
Pat Burrell might be looking at a situation where he could take a one-year deal with a good team, like the Rays. If the Giants ever got serious about Ramirez, they might balk at the talk of the $25 million salary, because as one GM said Wednesday, "For that, the Giants could probably sign Abreu and Burrell and have money left over."
The Angels could be a potential land spot for Ramirez, but folks who know Mike Scioscia -- who might have more influence than any manager in the game -- cannot see him embracing the idea of adding Ramirez on a long-term deal, because of his history of problems in Boston. And the Angels
will have choices for left field, undoubtedly, for much less money, from Dunn to Abreu, as Earl Bloom writes. Peter Angelos, the Orioles' owner, has mostly avoided Boras clients for more than a decade and will never extend himself for a Boras client.
The clock on the arbitration award is ticking, and the Dodgers will know by Sunday night whether Ramirez has swallowed hard, waved the white flag and taken a one-year deal. We'll see what happens.
Jamie McCourt should be thanked for raising legitimate questions, writes Kurt Streeter.
The Dodgers can ignore the economy as long as fans keep pouring into Dodger Stadium, writes T.J. Simers.
Around the majors with Buster Olney
Buster Olney
