Posted by Tom Perrotta, TENNIS.com
Economists can't say for sure whether there are values to be found in the beaten-down U.S. stock market now that we are officially one year into a recession. Thankfully, the performance of tennis players doesn't depend on credit-default swaps or mortgage-backed securities. So without further ado, here are my 2009 predictions for 10 intriguing commodities on the men's and women's tours.
Andy Roddick: Buy
You might not want to pick Roddick as a long-term investment, especially since his current rank (No. 8) seems about right during these times of rising young talent. (It's tough to imagine Roddick edging out any member of the top four, barring injuries.) But in the short term, Roddick is due for some big gains. He has a new coach -- and an excellent one at that -- in Larry Stefanki. Coaching changes tend to energize Roddick, as we've seen from his runs following switches to Brad Gilbert and then Jimmy Connors. He also stands to gain a lot of points at the Australian Open, where he lost in the third round last year. He should flourish through the end of the U.S. hard-court swing in California and Miami.
Gilles Simon: Sell
The young Frenchman plays an entertaining brand of tennis and doesn't seem to have the mental shortcomings that have hurt his more talented countryman, Richard Gasquet. Still, I'm not sure Simon is a consistent Top 10 player. Does he have enough weapons to win against the game's best players, or will he continue to rely on his legs and wear people down? I'm guessing he'll dip a bit in 2009 before climbing back.
Andy Murray: Buy
Murray is my riskiest pick. Not because his game is lacking -- to my mind, he has more variety than anyone not named Roger Federer -- but because his stock already has shot up a few hundred percent in the past few years. Still, I think he has a way to climb, perhaps even to No. 1 (though I wouldn't pick him to do that this year). He's definitely a candidate to win the Australian Open, where he lost in the first round last year and stands to gain a lot of points.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Sell
The rugged Frenchman is among my favorite players to watch. One moment, he crushes a ball. The next, he hits a feathery drop volley. He serves with the best of them and plays with emotion, much to the delight of crowds. So why sell? He's injury-prone, and I'm afraid he won't be able to remain healthy. Like other surprising Australia Open finalists, he's not likely to repeat the feat next year.
Gael Monfils: Buy
Monfils recently missed a deadline to enter a tournament in Brisbane, but don't let his absent-mindedness throw you. He's already in Australia preparing for next year, under the supervision of Roger Rasheed, Lleyton Hewitt's former coach. Monfils didn't play the Australian Open last year, so don't be surprised if he leaves Melbourne with enough points to put him in the Top 10.
Nicole Vaidisova: Buy
Vaidisova just finished her worst season as a pro: a 19-19 year in which she fell to No. 41 in the rankings. I don't expect her to become the multiple-major champion many thought she would be when she turned pro at age 13. But could Vaidisova possibly continue to play this poorly? It wouldn't take many wins for her to rejoin the Top 20, or even the Top 15.
Agnieszka Radwanska: Sell
Combine Radwanska's mind and Vaidisova's raw power, and you would have a champion. Alone, though, Radwanska is Martina Hingis Lite. She has excellent speed and wonderful court sense, but not enough power or variety to beat the best women on the tour consistently. She seems more likely to follow the career of a Patty Schnyder than a Justine Henin.
Elena Dementieva: Sell
I don't think any woman in the history of the game has demonstrated such mastery over the flat groundstroke as Dementieva. Unfortunately, I see her Olympic gold medal -- though no small achievement -- as the high point of her career. She'll lose ground as the year progresses.
Michelle Larcher de Brito: Buy
Soon her shrieks will be heard around the world (and if you think Maria Sharapova is guilty of noise pollution, you haven't heard anything yet). The 15-year-old begins the year ranked No. 129. She could easily halve that number, or better, before 2009 ends.
Caroline Wozniacki: Buy
Of the women just outside the Top 10, Wozniacki has the most promising game. She plays relentless tennis and she's a great athlete. She could easily reach the top 5 by the end of the year.
