Posted by Tristan H. Cockcroft
So the
Pat Burrell era is apparently over in Philadelphia.
Phillies fans might always have considered Burrell a career disappointment -- compared to the expectations when he was picked first overall in the 1998 amateur draft -- but they might not be much more impressed with his replacement. Raul Ibanez, a consistent .290-25-100 hitter for much of his career, takes over as the Phillies' everyday left fielder after signing a three-year, $30-million contract, pending a physical.
On the surface, and especially for most fantasy owners, Ibanez is a fine replacement. From 2006-08, he managed a higher batting average than Burrell (.291 to .254), averaged more RBIs (113-93) and more runs scored (89-77), while averaging five fewer home runs (Burrell 31, Ibanez 26). Citizens Bank Park should only help matters; Ibanez played much of his career at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.
Problem is, the Phillies shed a couple of subtle advantages with this deal. Most notably, they lose four years and four months of age: Ibanez is 36 and will turn 37 next June, while Burrell turned 32 two months ago. It's hard to imagine Ibanez's career -- or at least his recent level of production -- holding up for the lifetime of his new deal. Burrell, meanwhile, could ink a five-year deal elsewhere and still stick pretty close to his recent level of production right through his new contract's expiration.
Going from Burrell to Ibanez also hurts the team in terms of on-base percentage, as the former generally was one of the game's most underrated performers in the category, ranging around .380 in recent seasons. Ibanez, meanwhile, is a consistent .350. Again, it's not devastating, but it's a small factor.
Ibanez's addition also makes an already left-handed heavy Phillies lineup even more left-handed. Now, the Phillies did manage a higher team OPS against lefties (.801) than righties (.757) the past season, ranking sixth in baseball versus lefties, but it's hard not to imagine them going with a left-handed heart of the order when Chase Utley is ready to return from hip surgery. That will make them awfully susceptible to late-inning matchups, and put them in jeopardy of some team-wide cold spells. When Utley, Ryan Howard and Ibanez bat three-four-five and surprisingly let the team down once or twice facing a lefty closer, say, Brian Fuentes on his new team, don't be entirely shocked.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Ibanez represents a downgrade defensively in left field from Burrell, if you can believe that. Though the range-related numbers don't show it, Ibanez does have 11 errors combined in left field the past two seasons, a high number, and his reputation in the field is poor, only to get worse as the aging process takes effect. It might not be enough to amount to more than a handful of runs over the course of a season, but suffice to say it'll be enough to at least be noticeable.
Are those factors enough to significantly hurt the Phillies' 2009 chances? No, and fantasy owners might not notice a lick of difference between Ibanez's 2008 and 2009 statistics, or between what Burrell provided last season and Ibanez next. Most of the above concerns are real-game related, and might not show up for our purposes beyond exploiting the daily matchups. But by the time Ibanez's contract expires, chances are, Phillies fans might not feel much better about him than they did Burrell.
In other words, Ibanez, the No. 28 outfielder on the 2008 Player Rater, could rank almost exactly the same next season. But the people hurt most by the switch might be Burrell, who loses the home ballpark advantage, and Phillies fans.
Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
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