We saw the damage that Mark Teixeira could do with the Angels in his 54 games with the team down the stretch. Batting in front of Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup, the switch-hitting first baseman mashed to a .358 batting average and a .632 slugging percentage, and he had a .449 on-base percentage. If the Angels bring him back as part of a payroll of about $120 million, he could help lift them to another division title and another run at a World Series title.
We know what Teixeira would do, probably, if he were to sign with the Red Sox. Presumably, if Boston were to sign Teixeira this week, the Red Sox would trade
Mike Lowell, then shift
Kevin Youkilis from first base to third. And with a payroll of about $135 million, they would field a lineup that would look something like this:
- Dustin Pedroia, 2B
- Kevin Youkilis, 3B
- David Ortiz, DH
- Mark Teixeira, 1B
- J.D. Drew, RF
- Jason Bay, LF
- Jed Lowrie, SS
- Jason Varitek, C?
- Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
That's a lineup you can win a championship with, for sure. Even if
David Ortiz's production were to continue to decline, the Red Sox would have enough depth in their lineup, with Teixeira, to fill the void.
So it makes sense for the Angels to pursue Teixeira at a time when the bidding figures to fall somewhere in the range of $160 million to $200 million. It makes sense for the Red Sox to consider giving Teixeira what figures to be the second-highest financial package for any position player in the history of baseball. We get all that.
But what in the heck are the Nationals doing in this poker game? What in the heck are the Orioles doing in this conversation?
They should not be bidding. They should call
Scott Boras, the agent for Teixeira,
three minutes ago and tell him -- like someone who accidentally raises his hand at an auction --
Look, sorry for the misunderstanding, but we made a mistake. We really didn't mean to make that $160 million offer.
Maybe in three years, when some of Washington's young pitching talent starts to make an impact at the major league level, it would make sense for the Nationals to bid on a player like Teixeira. Maybe in three years, it would make sense for the Orioles to consider such an enormous contract. But not now, not when both teams are miles away from contending, not when they need a whole lot more than Teixeira.
Oh, sure, the argument for making a serious pitch for Teixeira might seem to make sense. A casual baseball fan might be able to identify perhaps one of the Nationals' players,
Ryan Zimmerman, and so the franchise is looking for a signature star, someone with whom the fans can identify.
The same is true for the Orioles: Besides
Kevin Millar, the up-and-coming
Nick Markakis is probably the best-known Baltimore player.
But history tells us, over and over and over, that winning -- as in contending -- is what really draws fans to your ballpark, not some shiny bauble.
Cal Ripken single-handedly drew fans to Camden Yards at the end of his career. With all due respect to Teixeira, he is not Ripken. He is not
Barry Bonds. Few players have that kind of box-office allure.
Alex Rodriguez did not. After the Rangers drew 2.5 million people to their ballpark and finished with a record of 71-91, they went out and spent $252 million to sign A-Rod. The next year -- when A-Rod did his part, slamming 52 homers and driving in 135 runs -- they went
73-89 and drew 2.8 million. In other words, adding the best player in the game made only a slight difference in the Rangers' attendance because they still weren't winning. Inevitably, A-Rod's salary became an enormous weight on the Rangers, wrecking their payroll flexibility. In order to retrieve that flexibility, they cut a deal with the Yankees in which they had to eat almost 40 percent of Rodriguez's contract.
The Washington Nationals' payroll in 2007 was about $38 million. This past season, it was about $55 million. Let's assume, for argument's sake, that the Nationals' payroll will be about $75 million next year. That would mean that Teixeira, at about $20 million a year, would absorb more than a quarter of the Nationals' entire payroll.
The Orioles' payroll in 2008 was about $68 million, and if they were to sign Teixeira, that would climb to about $80 million, with the first baseman accounting for a quarter of that. Yet they still would be two or three topflight starting pitchers short of contending with the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees. They still would be two or three top-flight starting pitchers short of contending with the Jays
for fourth place.
And I can say the following confidently, having worked as a sportswriter in Baltimore and having some understanding of the multilayered depth of knowledge in the Orioles' fan base: Until the team starts winning again, nobody will show up at Camden Yards. Signing Teixeira would not draw the the O's demonstrably closer to contending because they are so short in starting pitching. In fact, the signing of the first baseman could ultimately hurt them, because in two or three years, as the Orioles' young pitching begins to rise to the big leagues and the team needs pieces to augment the improved rotation, Teixeira's salary would restrict the kinds of moves the Orioles will make.
The Twins have shown all midmarket and big-market teams that you need to be patient and that you cannot be successful when you have a payroll structure that's top-heavy with a high-salaried big name. The Indians have demonstrated this, too, and so have the Athletics.
No, the table at which the Nationals and Orioles are playing right now is just pricey, and they should excuse themselves and spend their money on young pitching -- whether through the draft or through international signings -- and wait until the time is better. To do anything else is nothing less than lunacy.
Around the majors with Buster Olney 
Buster Olney
