I'll start this week's mailbag with some bowl talk:
From Vincent in Chicago: Is bowl record a fair comparison when comparing conferences? Isn't it really based on matchups (for example the ACC plays WAC schools)?
Feldman: It is based on matchups, but it's not like you're taking the No. 1 Big East team against the No. 6 Pac-10 team, so at least it's something. Of course, perception blurs reality. Most people tend to overlook Michigan beating Florida last year whenever they talk about how slow the Big Ten is or how awful it has become. Unfortunately, we in the media and in blogland play with the facts we like and ignore the ones we don't -- even if they tend to overlap and get in the way of our argument. We all love to deal in superlatives about how something is the best this or the worst that.
I think it is a portion of the picture, but not say half of the picture when summing up the worth of a conference. And the part where I think it is the most relevant is in the big games. West Virginia raised the level of credibility of the Big East out of the toilet by beating Georgia in the Dawgs backyard a few years ago while Ohio State has dropped the Big Ten's pull in the past two BCS title games.
I'm going into the bowl season with the mindset that this year's top two conferences are the Big 12 and SEC. If the Big 12 loses all but one game and the Big East sweeps, will I think the Big East is a better league this season? Probably not. Bowl play in itself is very fickle. Some teams are tough in the regular season and then for a variety reasons (injuries or players distracted by agents and pro futures) don't show up to play in bowl games.
Last year, the SEC's bowl record was 7-2, which would only underscore that the league was the tops in college football in 2007. The ACC was 2-6, which meshed pretty well with the league being the worst among the Big 6. Typically, it doesn't usually work that way. In fact, I don't think anyone would make the case that the Mountain West is the best league, but the MWC owns the best win percentage in bowl games among the 11 conferences over the past three seasons with a 9-4 mark (.690). The SEC is second at 16-8 (.670), followed by the Big East at 9-5 (.644). And that isn't just from the MWC beating up on the "mid-major" conferences. Since 2004, the Mountain West is 6-2 against BCS automatic-qualifying conferences in bowl games.
As for the head-to-head match-ups with the BCS conference teams (and Notre Dame) this year, the league with the best record is the ACC, which was 15-8 (65 percent). The MWC was next at 9-5 (64.3 percent); followed by the Big East at 9-7 (56 percent); then the Big 12 (46.7 percent); Big Ten (46.2 percent); Pac-10 (43 percent); SEC (40 percent) and WAC (29 percent).
From Jim in Parks, Neb.: In checking the recruiting services, I've noticed that Colorado has only eight committed recruits when most others have 20-plus. Why is that number so low? Are there still NCAA sanctions or is Hawkins just doing a slow job? Please explain.
Feldman: Some schools are more cautious than others when it comes to taking on commitments, although it appears that CU is going to miss on many of the top players in the state (C Terry Alletto, DE Nick Kasa, S Alex Logan, TE Ryan Hewitt and TE Kendall Gregory-McGhee), who are all committed elsewhere.
Right now, CU has nine commitments or at least that's how it's been reported. In truth, you have to take some of that with a grain of salt because those are very unofficial. I remember a few years ago being around Ole Miss, where the number of commitments they had on their actual board differed greatly from what was being reported. A source inside the CU program says that the Buffs don't have room to sign 25 this winter. It'll be closer to 20 or maybe 21 because they only lose 16 seniors and three of them were walk-ons who were never placed on scholarship. I don't believe the lack of signing numbers has anything to do with past NCAA sanctions, but rather the staff taking its time in evaluating prospects. Juco WR Andre Simmons, a 6-foot-3, 200-pounder, is a big pick-up for CU.
From Paul in NYC: Is Shonn Greene most underrated player in the country?
Feldman: He's definitely up there, although by the end of the season, especially after the Penn State win, a lot of people started talking about him. I would put Greene on a list along with Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry, Kansas' Todd Reesing and BC's Mark Herzlich. Actually, Iowa has another really good under-the-radar player in DT Mitch King, who has been terrific for a very long time. Notching 55 TFLs is amazing for an inside guy.
Listen to this praise from one of the Iowa coaches:
"A guy that's as good a football player as we've had here is King," Iowa's venerable defensive coordinator Norm Parker told Marc Morehouse. "In terms of the National Football League coming in and looking at him and saying, 'Wow, look at this guy,' that's not the case because he's not 6-foot-5, 290 pounds and (doesn't) run a 4.6. But he's as good a football player as we've had, I think. He's as good a college football player as we've had since we've been here on defense."
From Scooter in Chicago: Now can we say that Notre Dame is all the way back? The Irish were awesome the other night.
Feldman: No, not yet. That was a strong showing, but it was only Hawaii. I was expecting the Irish to put a lot of points on UH in that game. As I watched, I was wondering if Charlie Weis is working against himself. Personnel-wise their talent feels more comfortable in a Texas Tech-style attack, but Weis seems to be more wired for a more ground-based system -- and it doesn't appear they are very good when they try to play physical football. I do think with the schedule being so soft next year, it's very realistic they could win at least nine or maybe 10 games, but obviously consistency is key.
From Gina in Newport Beach: How good do you expect USC to be in 2009 and will there be that big of a drop-off on defense?
Feldman: Offensively, USC will be better than it was in '08 because of the added experience it will have along the offensive line, where the Trojans were very young this year. All of the key skill talent will be back and that much more mature, so that's a big plus assuming that the transition to new offensive coordinator John Morton, the former receivers coach, isn't very steep.
On defense, the Trojans will take a big hit in their back seven. I expect them to lose both safeties with junior Taylor Mays jumping to the NFL. That's a big blow because those were two great college players to anchor the defense. All three linebackers also leave and they were outstanding as was DE-OLB Clay Matthews and DT Fili Moala. The corners should be very good with Shareece Wright back. If he's 100 percent, he has a good chance to be the best CB Pete Carroll has had here. Look for new MLB Chris Galippo to emerge as a star. He's had to overcome two back surgeries which is obviously cause for concern but he is very instinctive and quick. Up front, I'm not so sure how good USC will be. Everson Griffen has tons of talent but hasn't exactly wowed people inside the program with his consistency. I have heard good things about young DTs Jurrell Casey and Armond Armstead, but I expect USC to win more games with its offense than holding teams to single digits and this still should be a top-10 program.
From Keith in Knoxville: How quickly do you think Lane Kiffin can get the Vols back into the top 10?
Feldman: I expect the Vols to be solid on defense with Monte Kiffin running the show. Having Eric Berry, who is arguably the top returning defender in the country, also is a huge plus. The big question is going to be, can the younger Kiffin develop a quarterback capable of making this an elite program again? I think that will take at least two, maybe three seasons to find and develop that player. Also, I've heard that the level of talent in the program has dipped quite a bit and it's probably not realistic to expect more than eight wins in either of the next two seasons while the new staff hits the recruiting trail.
RANDOM STUFF
• Frank Wilson is going to be the Bulldogs new running back coach and recruiting coordinator. This is an excellent move by new Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen. Wilson was Ed Orgeron's top recruiter at Ole Miss and was responsible for many of the starters on this Rebels' Cotton Bowl team, ranging from WR Mike Wallace to C Daverin Geralds to DE Kentrell Lockett to DB Kendrick Lewis and many of their other top young players. Wilson also had a big role in Southern Miss having its best recruiting class ever last winter.
He's about as impressive a coach as I've seen in terms of his ability to relate to players and get a lot out of them. He also has a very strong reputation throughout Louisiana and a good eye for talent. Another one of his protégés, Benjarvus Green-Ellis attained two of the five 1,000-yard rushing seasons in Ole Miss history while being coached by the New Orleans native.
• I visited Baylor the other day to check in with their superb young QB Robert Griffin and took a tour of their new football complex.
It's now a big time set-up. The Bears just moved in and now will finally get to practice nearby rather than take a 10-minute drive to their practice site.
Cool note: Griffin, who is probably the fastest man to ever play QB in college, mentioned Ken Stabler first when he talked about studying old QBs to keep getting better.
• Desmon Briscoe has emerged as a star at Kansas and a big reason for this is a video game? Yes, reports J. Brady McCullough:
"I mean, I play Madden a whole lot," Briscoe explained. "They roll their defenses now. The game systems these days are just crazy. Me playing Madden, it helps me read the defense on the field."
• Good story on the great Peria Jerry by Scott Cacciola.
• JaMarcus McFarland and his family were embroiled at the center of the Texas-Oklahoma rivalry and it has gotten messy as you'll see from Thayer Evans' story in the New York Times.
• Don't count out Minnesota's indestructible Eric Decker, writes Kent Youngblood.
"There was a victory over Indiana when Decker was knocked cold, concussed. He got up and finished the game with 13 receptions. A week later, at Illinois, Decker sprained his left shoulder making a first-half touchdown catch and later bruised a rib. He still finished the game with nine catches."
• Two things I learned about Jackie Sherrill from one of his former colleagues in the past few days: He was great with little kids and he had a fascination with clowns.
• Since Rocky Seto turned down his buddy Steve Sarkisian to be the new Washington D-coordinator, where should the former USC coach turn? Colleague Ted Miller has two very good suggestions in Mark Banker and Justin Wilcox.
• Former Tennessee lineman Anthony Herrera trashed Phil Fulmer pretty hard in a Q&A with Bob Sansevere of the Pioneer Press:
"My biggest regret was going to the University of Tennessee. The head coach, Phillip Fulmer, is a very two-faced guy. The side you saw out of him through recruiting wasn't the side that you saw once you got there. He wasn't a molder of men. He was just a politician, trying to work his way through. I thought about leaving, but my teammates, being there for the team, is what kept me there."
• Saw "Burn After Reading" last night. I kept waiting for it to get funny or good and it never happened.
Bruce Feldman
