As we speed into the heart of bowl season, it's worth trying to explain why some of these outcomes can be so hard to predict. A big reason is the preparation time for the game, and so is the motivation level of players and staff. That's not to say these games aren't important to everyone playing, but it's not a stretch to say some have a bit more riding on these games than others. So with that said, here are the 10 teams that have the most riding on bowl season.
- Oklahoma: It would seem to be a toss-up for the top spot between the Sooners and the Florida Gators given that both are one win away from a national title, but I think OU has more to lose, so I'm putting Bob Stoops' team at No. 1. Stoops doesn't want to hear any of that talk, but a lot of folks have been wondering if the Sooners coach is going to get the same treatment that Jim Tressel and Ohio State got if OU loses another BCS bowl. The answer is yes, especially if it's a blowout. Stoops was "Big Game Bob" heading into the Sugar Bowl five years ago, before OU lost the BCS title to LSU. The next year, the Sooners got pounded by USC, 55-19, to lose another title. After that, there was the gut-wrenching loss to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, and then last season's stunning upset loss to West Virginia, making it four consecutive BCS bowl losses in a row over five seasons. Stoops' team also lost this year's big Red River Shootout game to Texas, but did bounce back to beat then-No. 2 Texas Tech. If he beats Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow and the SEC, he's Big Game Bob again and no one will talk about the curse of losing his brother Mike to Arizona or anything like that. A loss to UF probably would make the burden of proof just a little bigger for OU next year and it's a burden no program wants to shoulder. Just ask the Buckeyes.
- Florida: The Gators can make it two titles in three years and also uphold SEC bragging rights for another year, silencing the Big 12's claim that SEC defenses look so tough because their offenses are so shaky. The win also would enable Tebow to get revenge on those Heisman voters who completely left him off their ballots, and likely thrust the UF quarterback into the discussion of the greatest leaders in the college game's history.
- Ohio State: Beating Texas in the Fiesta Bowl wouldn't silence all of the skeptics, but it would quiet many of them down. It would also do wonders for the credibility of the Big Ten while at the same time serving as a good springboard for the program behind freshman QB Terrelle Pryor.
- Texas: A split national title is out of the question, but the Longhorns' point of being snubbed (for whatever that is worth at this point) loses all of its steam if they slip against the Buckeyes. At least they can save face and have the right to grouse a little with an impressive victory. A few years back, Cal fans felt jobbed that they were relegated to the Holiday Bowl, and then went out and watched Texas Tech move up and down the field on them.
- Utah: Hawaii getting overwhelmed by Georgia last season didn't do any of the non-BCS conference schools any favors. Utah has had a strong season and the Utes can finish it off in style by beating an SEC heavyweight in a de facto Alabama home game. That would provide a huge boost to the Utes in next year's polls and it probably would help a Boise State or the next unbeaten outsider. It will also elevate coach Kyle Whittingham to stardom in the coaching world, similar to what West Virginia's win over Georgia a few years ago did for Rich Rodriguez's rep.
- Penn State: So USC has one of the greatest defenses in history, huh? Don't expect Joe Paterno's club to be intimidated. Miami ... Fiesta Bowl .. ring a bell? The Trojans have dominated the Big Ten of late, but just like Ohio State, Penn State can help address a lot of the skepticism toward the Big Ten's perceived speed and athleticism with a win here.
- Notre Dame: Hawaii may not have been one of the top 50 teams in the country this season, but the Irish needed any positive sign to reinforce confidence -- both internally and externally -- about Charlie Weis after Notre Dame's horrible play in the second half of the season. The rout of UH will obviously be good for recruiting and for the fan base, but I suspect it's just as important for the players, who needed to see something to know they can have success. It also should quiet some of the carping about Jimmy Clausen's development.
- LSU: Think the Tigers have mailed it in in the second half of the season? Busted assignments have plagued their defense and the coaching staff is in the midst of a major shake-up. All of this doesn't bode well for LSU's chances against a potent Georgia Tech team playing in its own backyard. If the Tigers don't rally and play with some pride, they will get embarrassed here and that will put Les Miles, fair or unfair, right on the hot seat for 2009, just a year after winning the BCS title.
- Arizona: This was a make-or-break season for Mike Stoops and his team came through fairly well. It wasn't great, but Zona's first bowl win in 10 years was enough to get him a new deal.The win over a good BYU team also was nice for the Pac-10, which has had a dismal season. This victory marked the Pac-10's second win in eight games against the Mountain West this season.
- West Virginia: Let's start with Pat White, who goes down as the only QB in college football history to start and win four bowl games. Better still, White showed off his passing skills by throwing for a career-high 332 yards in a brilliant performance against an opportunistic North Carolina defense. Then, factor in what this means for WVU coach Bill Stewart, who people have been writing off from the moment he was given control of the program. The guy is now 2-0 in bowls.
RANDOM STUFF
• Really impressive win for Florida State Saturday. I think that was another positive step towards getting back into the top 15 in 2009. Not bad for a program with the nation's youngest O-line.
• As great as I thought Jahvid Best was in the Emerald Bowl Saturday night, I was equally impressed by Cal center Alex Mack. The 310-pound senior who I feel like I've gushed over all season, is touted as a second or third-round pick. I cringe at that. I know pro teams tend not to put as much of a premium on centers, but if this guy is a 10-year starter and multiple Pro Bowler, why not go after him in Rd. 1 rather than rolling the dice on a boom-or-bust guy at offensive tackle?
• Despite some really shaky work in the two-minute offense, I thought Miami freshman QB Jacory Harris was terrific the other night. UM was on the brink of getting blown out by Cal and Harris, making his first start against a 1-A team, never buckled. He hit big throws all night while dodging a lot of heat and playing through a nagging injury. I've been a big believer in Robert Marve, and I still think he'll be a big-time QB, but I'm convinced now that Harris should have the keys to the Miami program.
• Cool story about the life of a walk-on here by Todd Jones. It's definitely worth the click.
• I'm in Dallas for the Cotton Bowl and I got to visit with the Ole Miss program over the weekend. After catching up a little with QB Jevan Snead, I saw his old high school coach Chad Morris, who has just won a Texas state title with Lake Travis High in his first season there. Morris' résumé as a QB developer matches up well with any coach this side of Norm Chow. He's developed Snead, NFL QB Kevin Kolb and now has Garrett Gilbert, the nation's top-rated QB who is headed to Texas.
I'm excited to see Gilbert play this weekend in the Under Armour All-American Game down in Orlando.
• Kentucky, which has produced quite a few standout defensive tackles in recent years, has another one coming in. Mark Crawford is an agile 6-foot-1, 300-pound lineman from Coffeyville JC who should come in and make an impact on the Cats' D.
• If you come through Dallas, check out Villa-O. It is an "organic" Italian restaurant, but that shouldn't scare off people who get skittish about organic restaurants. It's one of the better restaurants I've been to this season. I've had chicken parm at about 40 different places and theirs was as good as any of them, including the places in New York City.
Bruce Feldman
