After the players' strike that began in August 1994 ended with a new Basic Agreement in early April 1995, an entire offseason of free-agent signings and trades and budget adjustments was crammed into the span of about three weeks as the whole process accelerated. Every day, it seemed, brought news of another All-Star signing a contract or being traded.
Well, this is kind of what we have to look forward to in the final weeks before the start of spring training, because there are
lots of players without jobs, and a whole lot of teams are waiting and waiting for the asking prices of those players to drop. Eventually, agreements will be forged, in a flurry.
Over the past five days, various executives and agents who figure to be right in the middle of the coming market storm were enjoying other activities: One was fishing off of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico; another was headed to a movie with his son; a third was at an airport, having landed from his family's vacation getaway; another was returning from a cruise.
They all go back to work in earnest today, with so many situations pending -- such as the Cubs' negotiations with
Milton Bradley, which presumably will be concluded this week. In no particular order:
| Olney's news and notes |
• Market has crashed for free agents
• D-backs' GM now a part-owner of team
• Helton moving through rehab process
• Hamels set to cash in big in arbitration
• Ringolsby says Rice not Hall-worthy
Around the majors with Buster Olney 
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1. How much money will
Ryan Howard ask for in arbitration, and how much might he win? His $10 million award last winter sent shock waves through the industry, creating concern particularly with small market teams that have historically relied on young, cheap players.
Casey Close, Howard's agent, is going to set a record, one way or another, with his arbitration request -- and if Howard winds up getting $15 million or more, this might have some impact on the thinking of other teams that are trying to decide what to do with their unsigned young stars -- such as the Brewers with
Prince Fielder.
2. Where will the unsigned future Hall of Famers land?
Ken Griffey Jr.,
Pedro Martinez,
Trevor Hoffman,
Tom Glavine,
John Smoltz and others are not under contract. Yes, the Rays have interest in Griffey, but he's among a long line of veteran hitters Tampa Bay is considering, and he probably falls in line someplace behind
Jason Giambi,
Garret Anderson et al.
3. How will the Padres' pending sale to
Jeff Moorad impact their offseason decisions? Will they still work to trade
Jake Peavy? Will they reopen negotiations with Hoffman? We don't yet know. The sale won't be finalized for weeks, but keep in mind that even before the i's are dotted and the t's are crossed, prospective owners can have an enormous impact on decisions made by the team they intend to buy.
4. Will anyone top the Mets' $36 million offer to
Derek Lowe? The Mets' negotiations for Lowe are
likely to heat up this week, writes Kat O'Brien. The Braves are
involved in the bidding for Lowe, writes David O'Brien, who also mentions within this piece that
Andruw Jones' situation with the Dodgers will be resolved by Jan. 15.
Mark Bowman writes that the Braves'
interest in Lowe is slight. That's what I've heard, too.
5. What happens to
Manny Ramirez? It figures that sometime this week, the Dodgers will make an offer to Ramirez. It wouldn't be a surprise if there were some kind of time limit attached to the offer or if their offer resembles the two-year, $45 million offer they made in November, because nothing that would compel the Dodgers to go beyond their previous offer has developed in the marketplace -- unless their own internal anxiety starts to become a factor.
But that doesn't seem to be a real concern yet, because the Dodgers know two things:
A. They reside in the National League West, a division hammered by financial cutbacks and restrictions this winter, and so long as the Dodgers land at least one good starting pitcher, they'll probably go into 2009 as the favorite to win the division, Manny or no Manny.
B. If they don't sign Manny, they could certainly add one of the many other good veteran hitters available, whether it be
Adam Dunn or
Bobby Abreu or whoever.
6. Where does Dunn land? Among the current free agents, he might wind up getting the biggest deal of all -- perhaps even more than Ramirez, depending on how hard the Dodgers hold the line in their negotiations with Manny. The Nationals are interested, but in order to sign with Washington, Dunn would have to be at peace with the idea that he would be returning to almost the same kind of situation that he had in Cincinnati: He would be playing for a team that will probably struggle (for at least the next couple of years), a team lacking in the kind of pitching needed to contend. It is possible that Dunn, who has lost almost 20 pounds this offseason, could choose to sign elsewhere, with a team that is closer to winning.
What follows is complete speculation: Might it make some sense for the Braves to offer Dunn a deal?
7. What will the Milwaukee Brewers do? They lost
CC Sabathia and
Ben Sheets, and they don't have a proven closer. Will they make an offer to Hoffman? Might they join the bidding for someone like
Jon Garland? We'll see. They do seem to be among the very few teams who still have a chunk of money to spend.
8. Who will win the weird Tampa Bay-Oakland bidding war? Both teams are going for a slugger, both teams are in discussions with Giambi and Abreu and others, and both have a decent-sized, short-term contract to offer. But strangely, each team probably wouldn't be upset if the other team were to strike first, because that might naturally undercut the bargaining position (and the asking prices) of the remaining free agents. Just as I wrote Sunday, the guess here is that Giambi will wind up with Oakland, and the Rays will wind up with
Pat Burrell.
9. What will happen with
Jason Varitek? The Red Sox offered him arbitration, and because he's a Type A free agent, any other team who signs him would have to give up a top draft pick -- and considering the concerns about Varitek's bat speed, it's not surprising that other teams are shying away from striking that deal. When it's all said and done, Varitek might look back and wish he had simply taken the arbitration offer, which would've netted him about $10 million. Now, he might have to take less to go back to Boston.
10. Will
Andy Pettitte return to the Yankees? They have offered him a one-year, $10 million deal, and in the wake of the
Mark Teixeira signing, there was some talk that they might pull out of the bidding to save a little money. At some point soon, Pettitte will have to make up his mind if he's willing to play for what the Yankees are willing to pay him.
Around the majors with Buster Olney
Buster Olney
