Posted by Nathan Easler
This week at the 2009 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, celebrities such as Bill Murray and Peyton Manning will mix it up with PGA Tour professionals across three elite courses on the Monterey Peninsula: Poppy Hills, Spyglass and Pebble Beach, the host course. The pros will play each course once in the first three rounds before the field is cut. The 60 players and ties who score lowest will play in Sunday's finale at Pebble Beach.
Golf Stats: The Numbers That Matter
Every golfer and golf fan knows the sport is a game of numbers. One of the most distinct characteristics of golf is that any player's efforts are summarized by an absolute and final statistic: the score. However, as any visitor to the 19th hole knows, the story of the game cannot be told in full by the tally at the end of the round.
"Golf Stats: The Numbers That Matter" is your weekly source of insight into the numbers that make a difference in golf, focusing on the PGA Tour. Whether you're looking to wow your buddies in your Saturday foursome or get a little extra help for your fantasy team or are just a stats junkie, this blog is for you.
Every week, this sliver of the Internet will be your one-stop shop for the unique and significant golf stats that best tell the stories beyond the scores.
Many fine PGA Tour pros will play at Pebble Beach for their next-to-last time before the venerable venue hosts its fifth U.S. Open in 2010. It is hard to believe next year will mark a decade since Tiger Woods dismantled the Pebble Beach field. That year, he beat his closest competitor by 15 strokes and tied the U.S. Open scoring record of 272. Tiger has sole possession of the best U.S. Open score in relation to par at 12 under.
The three courses possess some of the most picturesque sites in the world. And that isn't hyperbole.
"This is one of the greatest spots on Earth," PGA Tour veteran Tom Lehman said.
Those words are great flattery from a major champion. But the man who owns the most major titles, Jack Nicklaus, paid Pebble Beach its highest tribute.
"If I only had one round left to play, it would be at Pebble Beach," Nicklaus said.
Despite this praise, the Monterey Peninsula courses have their critics. Many say the greens are too bumpy, the weather is too wet and the rounds with the amateurs take too long. If you tune in to the tournament this weekend and view the spectacular scenes, this may seem like nitpicking. However, some numbers can back up the gripes.
When considering the length of all drives, Pebble continues to yield the shortest tee balls on tour year after year. In five of the past six years, Pebble Beach has ranked last in total driving distance. In the one year it didn't hold that distinction, it finished second-to-last. Tee shots at Pebble Beach travel 15 to 20 yards fewer than the average PGA Tour course. Much of this is because of the seasonal showers and cooler winter temperatures.
As for the bumpy greens, the numbers back that up as well.
Last year, putting from inside 10 feet at Pebble Beach was the second-most-difficult such task on tour. It was most difficult to putt from less than 10 feet away at last week's venue, Torrey Pines. As for putting from inside 10 feet in the past few years, Pebble has ranked first, sixth, seventh, second and second in difficulty since 2004. Given these seemingly harsh conditions, the field fared relatively well last year, with Pebble Beach ranking 21st out of 54 in course difficulty for scoring in relation to par.
Spyglass and Poppy Hills have some very similar traits in terms of driving conditions and putting. But because each is played for only a single round, they aren't officially ranked in these stats.
As for how they scored, last year Spyglass played the toughest, ranking 12th among 54 courses, while Poppy Hills ranked 19th.
Welcome back
Pebble Beach welcomes back two players who historically have been fixtures in the top 10 in the world rankings: Jim Furyk and Vijay Singh. Singh is making a quick return from arthroscopic knee surgery, while Furyk will tee it up for the first time in 2009 this week.
Furyk has been a tremendously successful player since turning pro in 1992, having amassed 13 PGA Tour wins. Still, 2008 was a strange season for him. Furyk led the tour last year in top-10 finishes with nine of them, but he was unable to win a tournament -- the first time he has failed to win in a season since 2004. He has played at the AT&T pro-am 13 times, has four top-10s and has missed the cut only once. His best finish was third in 1998.
Last year on Sunday at Pebble Beach, it appeared Singh would soon be shaking hands with the tournament sponsors and kissing the Waterford crystal. But he faltered down the stretch, finishing with a 39 on the back nine.
Although he struggled, Singh managed a birdie on the 72nd hole to force a playoff with Steve Lowery. Lowery's birdie on the first playoff hole led him to his first victory in 198 starts dating back to 2000. Despite last year's letdown and his recent surgery, Singh has the toughness and track record to overcome the obstacles. Singh has seven top-10 finishes in 14 appearances, including a victory in 2004 and two second-place finishes at Pebble Beach.
Recipe for success
The AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am definitely favors players with previous wins. Only five players since 1970 have made the AT&T pro-am their first win: John Cook (1981), Steve Jones (1988), Brett Ogle (1993), Matt Gogel (2002) and San Jose State product Arron Oberholser (2006).
When examining the data and trends from the past several years of the AT&T event, we see two statistical categories that correlate closely with success. Foremost is greens in regulation. The other is scrambling.
Success in these areas is always an excellent predictor of success, but even more so at the AT&T pro-am. One reason these categories are more important than usual is the diminished driving distance on these courses. All three courses are less than 7,000 yards, but they play longer. Those players who rely on their distance to separate from the field might lose a bit of an edge (and perhaps confidence) because they simply won't find the distance they're used to getting.
The shorter players off the tee are used to hitting longer clubs into greens and are more comfortable doing so. Those same players aren't as likely to be frustrated with midiron approaches. Case in point: Corey Pavin. One of the shortest hitters on tour, he can't compete most weeks with the bombs-away play at most PGA Tour venues. But the AT&T event falls directly into Pavin's wheelhouse. The current Ryder Cup captain has finished sixth and third at Pebble Beach the past two years.
Fantasy foresomes
To make this week's fantasy picks, let's use the analysis above, coupled with historical context and taking into account the hot players on tour.
• Mike Weir was on fire at the end of 2008; he finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight tournaments. He already has a third-place finish this year, ranks third on tour in scrambling at 74.36 percent (the tour average is 58.98 percent) and ranks sixth in actual scoring average at 68.14.
• Tim Clark leads the tour in actual scoring average at 67.33, ranks fourth in scrambling at 73.68 percent (tour average: 67.20 percent) and seventh in greens in regulation at 76.54 percent.
• Davis Love III has won twice at the AT&T event, and he finally appears to have recovered from the torn ligaments in his foot. Much like fellow fortysomething Kenny Perry, Love has rededicated himself and is goal-oriented.
"I want to make [captain] Freddie [Couples'] Presidents Cup team and get back to being competitive in the majors. I had a taste of it at the British [Open], where I thought I was close. I want to make it to the Tour Championship, and I want to play for the FedExCup."
Setting goals worked for Perry, and don't expect Love's 20th win in November at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., to be his last. One final note: Love has hit 75 percent of his greens in regulation thus far in 2009.
• Retief Goosen is more of a gut pick this week. This guy is a C player in most leagues these days, and it is just so tough to keep him off your roster. A drawback is that this is his first appearance at Pebble Beach, but you will not find a player with more potential at the end of your squad. He is coming off a T-26 finish at the Buick Invitational.
• Padraig Harrington finished in the top 25 last week. The conditions are predicted to be much like those in his native Ireland: wet and cool. Harrington admitted to being rusty, but it won't take him much longer to break out.
• David Toms has been arguably the hottest player on tour. He finished runner-up at the Sony Open last month, matching nicely with another top-10 and a top-25. He ranks second in actual scoring average at 67.38.
• D.J. Trahan is starting to re-emerge. He has made all his cuts this year and has finished in the top 25 three times. He has hit 75.82 percent of greens in regulation and has an actual scoring average of 68.41. Trahan ranks 12th in both greens in regulation and scoring.
• Charles Howell III has had good balance with greens in regulation (72.22 percent) and scrambling (66.00 percent). You could do much worse when rounding out your roster.
The starters: Mike Weir, Tim Clark, Davis Love III, Retief Goosen
Next in line: Padraig Harrington, David Toms, D.J. Trahan, Charles Howell III
Send comments, suggestions and corrections to Nathan.J.Easler@espn.com.
