A first look at projected standings for '09
• Red Sox edge Yankees by one game in East! (But Yankees cruise to wild card.)
• Indians only winning team in AL Central!
• A's only winning team in AL West!
• Mets top Phillies! (No, seriously this time.)
And in the National League West, the Manny-less Dodgers finish six games behind the first-place Diamondbacks.
Really, I don't see too much here that doesn't look right, except of course that projections are lousy at projecting outliers -- maybe that's why they're called outliers -- and I think it's exceptionally unlikely that neither the AL Central or West will feature even a single team with more than 84 wins.
Other projected standings will arrive, and most of them will be based on methodologies nearly as sound as those used by Baseball Prospectus. But this is a great place to start if you want to know who will win this season and why.