ESPN Golf Blog

Posted by Nathan Easler

This week, the PGA Tour moves more than 300 miles down the California coast, from Pebble Beach to the esteemed Riviera Country Club, for the 2009 Northern Trust Open. Riviera is highly revered by tour players and is widely considered one of the top-five venues on the PGA Tour for its spectacular beauty and challenging design.

The course is considered a traditionalist's track with narrow fairways and small, fast greens. Most pros consider this a shot-maker's and ball-striker's venue, where you must hit every shot in the bag. The numbers mostly agree with conventional wisdom: greens in regulation, putting and scrambling are key components to a successful tournament. However, there is one key contradiction in recent years at Riviera: driving distance rather than driving accuracy will play a crucial role in winning the Northern Trust Open.

Driving distance stands out as a paradox to what's considered a shot-maker's course. What's even more surprising than driving distance being significantly associated with success is that driving accuracy is one of the least important statistical categories at Riviera. Here's how the past three champions fared in a few key categories.

Though this is just a small sampling, it gives you a taste of what the recent champions have done well and what they have been able to get away with. One nearly universal truth that holds up at Riviera is that greens in regulation is one of the most important predictors of success.

It appears that the complexity of a traditional course like Riviera is being changed by modern technology and the ability of today's PGA Tour pros to recover from the rough. Despite the course being stretched to 7,298 yards and the rough being close in play, it appears that the modern equipment and strength of today's players aid in neutralizing the rough and the distance added. The age-old combination of solid ball striking into greens and clutch putting still holds, but the penalty of the rough is becoming less and less a factor.

A Tough Test
In 2008, Riviera maintained many of its traditional qualities: difficult to avoid the rough, difficult to hit the small greens, difficult to stick it close on approaches, and some slick and frustrating short putts. In fact, Riviera was in the top five out more than 50 courses in the following categories:

The Holes
The most recognizable hole at Riviera is the 199-yard, par-3 sixth hole, world renowned for having a bunker in the middle of the green. If a player is on the wrong side of the trap, he will have to make a tough decision to either putt around or chip over the bunker. This makes for an excellent opportunity to view a player's imagination and shot-making ability. It's also pretty entertaining to see a couple of divots taken out of this pristine green.

Another unique characteristic is that Riviera opens with its easiest hole and follows soon thereafter with its most challenging test. The first hole, a 503-yard, par-5, averaged more than half a stroke under par last year, surrendering 17 eagles and 232 birdies. The 236-yard, par-3 fourth hole averaged one-third of a stroke over par in 2008 and yielded only 16 birdies the entire week.

The History
Riviera earned its moniker "Hogan's Alley" in 1948 after Ben Hogan won both the U.S. Open and the L.A. Open there that season. Over the years, the course has been host to many historical events, including:

• In 1952, Joe Louis became the first African-American to complete in a tour-sanctioned event.

• In 1953, it became the first locally televised event.

• In 1966, it was the first nationally televised event.

• In 1962, Jack Nicklaus won his first professional check, which totaled $33.33.

• In 1992, 16-year-old Tiger Woods played in his first PGA Tour event as an amateur.

Over the years, the par-71 course has been redesigned several times and will be tipped out to 7,298 yards for this week's event.

Fantasy Foresomes
To make this week's fantasy picks, let's use the analysis above coupled with historical context and the hot players on tour.

• Ernie Els just needs to get his putter going. He currently ranks second on tour in GIR, seventh in scrambling, and 22nd in driving distance. As good as the rest of his game has been, his putter has been icy and he ranks 160th in putts per round. Look for that to change this week. Els won here in 1999 and finished third two years ago.

• Robert Allenby makes his 2009 PGA Tour debut this week. While it is a little dicey to pick a returning player, Allenby is as sure a thing as you can get. He brings his streak of 27 consecutive cuts made to the Northern Trust Open, only two behind leader Tiger Woods. He ranked second in GIR on tour last year and is a former champion, having won here in 2001. His recent track record is also quite impressive at Riviera: 7th, 3rd, MC, 7th, 15th.

• Charley Hoffman has been the most pleasant surprise of the early season. He leads the tour in all-around ranking, is 15th in scrambling, 14th in driving distance and 14th in GIR. He's got four top 25s in as many starts this year, including two top 10s.

• D.J. Trahan continues to impress in 2009. Unfortunately for him, the weather-shortened event at Pebble Beach left him T-6 and just outside the top 64 in the world golf rankings. Had he been able to move up into the top 64, he would have qualified for the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship next week. Trahan ranks 13th in GIR, 25th in driving distance and already has four top 25s, including two top 10s.

• Zach Johnson already has a win at the Sony under his belt. He has added significant distance to his game off the tee and ranks 11th in GIR.

• Chad Campbell is one of the best iron players there is and currently is fifth in GIR. He is averaging more than 300 yards off the tee and has made six straight cuts at Riviera.

• Charles Howell III has an impressive record here. Besides his victory in 2007, he has made all seven cuts and has four total top 10s.

• Retief Goosen may be back. After not liking what he saw in the mirror, Goosen got after it in the offseason, losing 16 pounds and gaining muscle. On the slick surfaces, you have to like Goose's chances. He's coming off an impressive third-place finish at Pebble, and he leads the tour in eagles per hole.

The Starters: Ernie Els, Charley Hoffman, D.J. Trahan, Charles Howell III

Next in Line: Robert Allenby, Zach Johnson, Chad Campbell, Retief Goosen

Send comments, suggestions, and corrections to Nathan.J.Easler@espn.com.