Posted by Scott Burnside and Pierre LeBrun
(Editor's note: As we count down to the trade deadline, our experts will debate the possibilities and shed some reality on those rumors. Check out our Faceoff: Trade Deadline Edition all this week and next heading into March 4.)
Scott Burnside: Good morning, Pierre. With all the mob talk and rumors and Alexei Kovalev's triumphant return to the Montreal Canadiens' lineup, there is a sense that the Kovalev chapter has been written. But you and I know that's not necessarily the case. The Habs have a tough stretch coming up, they have a goaltending issue with Jaroslav Halak looking as though he's getting a chance to supplant Carey Price as starter, and there will be significant interest in Kovalev from other teams given he'll be an unrestricted free agent in the summer and doesn't represent much of a expenditure. (He's making just $4.5 million this season.) So, is the talented, enigmatic winger on the move?
Pierre LeBrun: At this point, Scotty, my best guess would be that Kovalev will stay put, but that's not a confident bet on my part. I spoke with five NHL GMs on Monday who all predicted Kovalev would not be traded. Their reasoning was unanimous -- that it's difficult for a playoff-bound team to move a high-end rental player and get something similar in return. The majority of teams moving rentals at the deadline are sellers. It's rare when a buyer, which Montreal clearly is with the acquisition of Mathieu Schneider last week, tries to dump a good rental. Obviously, Montreal's circumstances are unique, given all that has happened. The five GMs I spoke to all said Kovalev could fetch anywhere from a second-round pick to a low first-rounder, but how would that help Montreal this season?
Burnside: Agreed, but unless there's an epiphany and Kovalev starts to channel Mark Messier or Ryan Smyth or Rod Brind'Amour or any real team leader, how do the Habs realistically head into the playoffs with their most talented player having been publicly humiliated as he was a week ago? To me, it spells a quick end to a playoff season. Maybe that will happen regardless, but what about a team such as Edmonton, which might be prepared to move a winger like Erik Cole for Kovalev? Or Anaheim, which may be looking to move Chris Kunitz, who has three more years left on his deal with the Ducks and has won a Cup? Surely there's more than one way to skin this cat.
LeBrun: Well, I think Montreal GM Bob Gainey has left both options open to him, which is why this week is so critical. Let's see how Kovalev plays his next few games. If he's the old Kovalev, the Kovalev who played well on Saturday, you keep him. If troubles arise again, maybe you make a few calls. I can guarantee you Edmonton would take a long, hard look at Kovalev if Gainey were to make him available. Oilers coach Craig MacTavish and team president Kevin Lowe both played with Kovalev in New York; they know him well.
The Oilers diligently pursued that type of veteran star winger in the summer when they tried to sign Marian Hossa and Jaromir Jagr. So I think if Gainey decides to move Kovalev, the Oilers will listen. Having said all that, Cole for Kovalev is a step back for Montreal. Sure, it's rental for rental, but they're not even close in talent. Listen, as someone who knows Gainey well told me Monday, if the Habs' GM really wanted to move Kovalev, he would have probably done it last Monday before all the public fuss over sending him home. It looks to me as if this was Gainey really trying to rehabilitate one of his team's best players.
Burnside: Yes, interesting times for Gainey, whose team has given him no end of headaches. If he keeps Kovalev and the Habs tank in the first round, he will be flayed for keeping a player who didn't buy in. If he moves him for less value -- hard not to, given his skills -- and the Habs tank, he'll be flayed for making a knee-jerk move. (At least, he should be flayed. Gainey does have a special place in the hearts of the Montreal media, though.) The only way this could work out is if the Habs win at least a round. Frankly, I don't like their chances. If not Kovalev, does Gainey have another card to play before March 4?
LeBrun: One last point on Kovalev, though. Here's what one GM told me Monday: "You can't trade Alex Kovalev, pure and simple. The East is wide open. With all due respect to Boston and Washington, all eight teams that make it in the East have almost an equal shot at making it to the Cup finals. That's why you can't trade Kovalev. You won't be able to replace him for these playoffs."
We'll see what Gainey does. Otherwise, I think he needs to pick up a character piece, because I think that's what the team still clearly lacks. Ian Laperriere would be a fantastic addition if the veteran winger can't come to terms on an extension with Colorado. Then again, he'd also be a great pickup for all other 15 playoff-bound teams. In the end, given all that has happened in Montreal this season, wouldn't it be hilarious if the Habs were to reach the Cup finals? Unlikely, I know, but what a story it would be.
For more on the trade deadline, check out NHL Rumor Central. 
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