Posted by Matt Willis
If you read my Tuesday blog post (read all of my blog posts! [Shakes fist]), you should know that Matt Kenseth will be chasing history this weekend at Las Vegas.
Kenseth would be the first driver in NASCAR Cup Series history to win the season's first three races, a feat last attempted by Jeff Gordon in 1997. Gordon went on to finish fourth at Rockingham. The best finish by a driver who won the series' first two races was a third by Marvin Panch in 1957.
How has all of this affected the gambling community's view of Kenseth this season? Quite positively. Take a look at some of the notable swings in the odds of winning the Sprint Cup Series championship this year, according to our friends at the MGM Mirage.
Odds of winning 2009 Sprint Cup championship
Driver -- odds before season -- current odds
Matt Kenseth -- 10-1 -- 4-1
Tony Stewart -- 12-1 -- 9-1
Mark Martin -- 15-1 -- 9-1
Clint Bowyer -- 25-1 -- 18-1
David Ragan -- 50-1 -- 30-1
Juan Pablo Montoya -- 75-1 -- 50-1
Jamie McMurray -- 75-1 -- 50-1
Ken-do spirit
Kenseth won at Las Vegas in 2003 and 2004, before the inception of loop-data stats. But his numbers show he has been great there since, although he hasn't returned to Victory Lane.
Don't let this past year's 20th-place finish fool you; Kenseth was fast. He led 70 of the race's 267 laps, and ran the fastest lap on 51 of those laps, more than 19 percent of the time. Kenseth also spent 94 percent of the race running in the top 15.
It's no secret this is one of Kenseth's best tracks. His 9.0 average finish is tied for his best at any track. And his driver rating at Vegas is well over 100.
Kenseth's driver rating by track
Track -- rating -- average finish
Chicago -- 120.4 -- 9.8
Dover -- 114.5 -- 14.1
Homestead -- 113.7 -- 20.6
California -- 113.1 -- 9.0
Las Vegas -- 107.8 -- 9.0
Although his rating is higher at Dover and Homestead, Kenseth hasn't been able to seal the deal as he has at California and Las Vegas. Look for No. 17 to be a factor all day.
What a Roush
Roush Fenway Racing has won six of the 11 all-time Sprint Cup Series races at Las Vegas, including the first three and this past year's, courtesy of Carl Edwards.
RFR will attempt to become just the third team in series history to win the first three races of the season, and the first since Petty Enterprises in 1963. But the task won't be Kenseth's alone.
Roush Fenway's four other drivers all have shown strength this year, but two drivers have stood out above the others: Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, who is winless in Sin City.
Roush rankings the past four years at Las Vegas
Ranking -- Biffle -- Edwards
Driver rating -- fifth -- ninth
Average running position -- fourth -- 12th
Laps in top 15 -- fourth -- 15th
Fastest laps run -- sixth -- fourth
Jamie McMurray and David Ragan, if you're curious, both rank outside the top 15 in all four of these categories.
Your broken Hardt
This past week, I gave some numbers that showed Dale Earnhardt Jr. was going to struggle at California. Although I can't predict a bad batch of engine parts, my prognostication was still accurate.
This week, a little hope for Junior fans. I think there are some of you out there.
In his postrace interview after blowing up, Dale Jr. said his car was getting better and he was heading to the front. There is some truth to that -- Junior's finishes aren't indicative of how he's actually running.
When Earnhardt can get through a race without any problems, whether coming from an engine, pit road or Brian Vickers, he very well could be running up front along with his Hendrick teammates.
Junior's 2009 Sprint Cup rankings
The good
Green-flag speed: first
Fastest late in a run: first
The bad
Percentage of laps in top 15: 19th
Average running position: 20th
Driver rating: 21st
The good news? Long green-flag runs that are possible at Las Vegas and Atlanta could benefit Junior.
The bad news? In the first seven races at Las Vegas, there were no more than six cautions in any race. In the past four races, there were at least seven in every race, including a track-record 11 last season.
Enjoy the races this weekend, and remember these notes are for entertainment purposes only. But if you happen to be enjoying the weekend in Vegas, put one on red for me. And always double down on 11.
Matt Willis is a studio researcher at ESPN.
