Posted by Mark Schlabach
The NCAA tournament bubble will begin to shake itself out Thursday, as the Big 12, Big East and Pac-10 tournaments continue and ACC, Big Ten and SEC tourneys begin.
More than 20 teams sitting on the bubble will be in action. Here's a look at the early games featuring bubble teams:
Providence versus Louisville (ESPN, noon ET)
The Friars probably won't get much help from Wednesday's 83-74 victory over DePaul, which had lost 18 Big East games in a row before beating Cincinnati on Tuesday.
Even after winning in the second round of the Big East tournament, Providence's RPI rating remained at 71. The Friars' 10-8 finish in the Big East looks good on paper, but the NCAA selection committee will look to see which teams they actually beat.
So Providence probably will have to beat the top-seeded Cardinals in Madison Square Garden to have a legitimate chance at earning an at-large bid. The Friars have only two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Syracuse and then-No. 1 Pittsburgh at home.
The Cardinals routed Providence 94-76 at home on Feb. 18, as Terrence Williams scored 17 points with eight assists and six rebounds. The Friars had a small lead at the half in that game but shot only 9-for-30 in the second half. Louisville coach Rick Pitino is 4-0 against his former team, and his current squad is in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Minnesota versus Northwestern (noon ET)
Minnesota looked to be in pretty good shape for an NCAA at-large bid but then lost four of its last six regular-season games. The Gophers blew a 12-point lead against Michigan at home on Saturday and lost 67-64. So Minnesota goes into the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis probably needing two victories to absolutely ensure it's on the right side of the bubble.
Northwestern was hot at the end of the regular season and split two games with the Gophers. Minnesota won 72-45 in Minneapolis on Feb. 22, holding the Wildcats to a season-low 14 field goals. Northwestern beat the Gophers 74-65 at home on Jan. 18, which was the Wildcats' first victory over a ranked opponent in nearly three years.
Minnesota has an RPI rating of 41, which puts it behind Ohio State (No. 37) and Wisconsin (No. 38) but ahead of Michigan (No. 42) and Penn State (No. 66). But the Gophers lost twice to the Wolverines during the regular season.
Miami versus Virginia Tech (ESPN360, noon ET)
This is a classic bubble elimination game. The Hokies are reeling going into the ACC tournament in Atlanta's Georgia Dome, having lost six of their past seven games. Miami won three of its last four regular-season games to at least keep itself in the bubble discussion.
Both teams finished 7-9 in ACC play and probably need to win twice in Atlanta to have a chance on Selection Sunday. The winner of this game will play No. 1 seed North Carolina in Friday's quarterfinals.
Miami is ranked No. 52 in the RPI ratings -- 11 spots higher than Virginia Tech. Both teams have two RPI top-50 victories. Miami beat Wake Forest and FSU at home; Virginia Tech beat Wake Forest and Clemson on the road. The Hokies won at Miami 88-83 in overtime on Jan. 25, with guard Malcolm Delaney scoring 29 points.
Michigan versus Iowa (ESPN2, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Michigan probably moved to the right side of the bubble after beating Minnesota 67-64 on the road on Saturday. With six victories over RPI top-50 opponents, including impressive nonconference wins over UCLA and Duke, the Wolverines probably need to win only once in the Big Ten tournament to secure an at-large bid.
Michigan probably would have locked up an at-large bid already if it hadn't lost at Iowa 70-60 in overtime on Feb. 22. Iowa's Jake Kelly scored a career-high 23 points with nine assists in that game. The Wolverines blew a four-point lead in the final minutes of regulation, and coach John Beilein benched star guard Manny Harris for the entire overtime of that game.
Temple versus Saint Joseph's (2:30 p.m. ET)
The Owls are probably still a fringe bubble candidate and might need to reach the championship game of the Atlantic 10 tournament in Atlantic City, N.J., to have a decent chance for an at-large bid.
Temple is ranked No. 40 in the RPI ratings and has a couple of quality nonconference victories, having beaten Tennessee at home and Penn State on the road. Temple has won four games in a row against Saint Joe's, its bitter Philadelphia rival. The Owls beat the Hawks 68-59 at home on March 5 and 61-59 on the road on Feb. 12.
The game will feature two of the A-10's top scorers: Temple's Dionte Christmas and Ahmad Nivins of Saint Joe's.
Arizona versus Arizona State (3 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats desperately need a victory after losing four of their last five regular-season games. The Wildcats had won seven games in a row before their late-season swoon. Arizona State coach Herb Sendek has reversed his team's fortunes against its in-state rivals, as they've won four games in a row over the Wildcats. The Sun Devils beat Arizona 70-68 at home on Feb. 22 and 53-47 on the road on Jan. 21. It is Arizona State's longest winning streak in the intrastate series since winning nine in a row from 1979 to 1983.
Arizona has an RPI rating of 54, so it probably can't afford to go one-and-done in the Pac-10 tournament. The Wildcats have some meat on their résumé, having beaten Kansas, Washington, San Diego State and UCLA at home and Gonzaga on a neutral court. But Arizona doesn't want to go in front of the NCAA selection committee having lost five of its last six games.
Kansas State versus Texas (ESPN360, 3 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats have an RPI rating of 77, so they'll have to beat the Longhorns for the second time this season to have any chance of making the NCAA tournament's 65-team field. Kansas State stunned the Longhorns 85-81 in overtime in Austin on Jan. 31, which ended Texas' 19-game home winning streak.
Kansas State's Denis Clemente scored 44 points against Texas, tying the Big 12 single-game record for points scored. Clemente made 13 of 25 shots, including all six of his 3-point attempts.
