Posted by Andy Katz
ATLANTA -- The NCAA selection committee didn't put 34 teams on its first ballot.
A source close to the situation told ESPN.com the number was somewhere in the 20s, which is to be expected. That's the norm for the committee as it votes in the teams that unequivocally will be in the bracket, regardless of this week's events.
The fluid nature of this bracket, and ultimately the seeding process, likely will keep the 10-member committee stirring well into Saturday night.
Friday's results across the country mean the committee may be forced into some dicey decisions in the final hours of the selection process. At some point Saturday, maybe even Sunday morning, they're going to have to fill the field and settle on seeding so they can finalize the bracket late Sunday afternoon in time for the 6 p.m. ET deadline.
This is what the committee gets to contemplate Saturday:
• Duquesne and Temple play in the Atlantic 10 final in Atlantic City.The Owls are probably a win or two shy of getting in on their own. Xavier is a lock. Dayton should be as well. So that means the once-maligned A-10 likely will get three bids. The committee members will have a hard time ranking their final at-large spots as the A-10 gobbles up another bid.
• San Diego State earned a berth in the Mountain West Conference final. The Aztecs may look good on the power-rating paper, but they don't have the standout nonconference wins for the body-of-work argument. Does making the final mean enough to the committee? How to decide if the Aztecs are truly one of the best 34 teams -- if they don't win the title Saturday night -- may end up being one of the hardest decisions.
• Baylor will play Missouri in the Big 12 title game. Baylor once seemed like an NCAA-bound team, but slumped badly in conference. The Bears have to win to earn a berth. That would pile the Big 12 numbers higher, and while the committee doesn't count the number of conference teams, adding yet another Big 12 team will make bracketing more difficult come Sunday afternoon. The committee is already going to have fits trying to find a home under its bracketing principles for possibly eight Big Ten, seven Big East, seven ACC and then possibly seven Big 12 teams.
• Auburn will play Tennessee in the SEC semifinals in Tampa after beating Florida -- likely knocking the two-time national champs out of the NCAA tourney. Auburn's nonconference résumé is nonexistent; its SEC profile, in a normal year, would be worthy (10 wins), but the overall power of the league may make it hard to swallow. Does Auburn have to beat Tennessee to earn a berth? The committee will have to ponder that scenario. They'll also have to monitor Mississippi State, which is certainly capable of beating LSU, getting to the final and ensuring Sunday in the SEC is a headache for the committee for the second season in a row. A year ago, Georgia -- which wasn't even close to being on the board -- won the SEC tournament to snatch an at-large berth away from a more deserving team.
• A Utah State team that has won 29 games is preparing for a WAC final in what will be a true road game at Nevada. The Aggies' best win is over Utah at home, and while the résumé is a bit light, no team under the current tournament format (since 1985) has ever been left out as an at-large candidate with more than 26 wins. Utah State can make this moot and win the WAC, but the Aggies' at-large candidacy makes the last spots even more difficult to digest.
• Maryland enters Saturday's ACC semifinals against Duke with a neutral-court win over Wake Forest in the quarterfinals Friday. The Terps believe they needed to win two games to get into the field. They did that here, but they have no idea if that's enough based on their erratic season.
• Saint Mary's played an extra game Friday night against Eastern Washington and won by 20. Patty Mills, who didn't play well in the two WCC tournament games earlier in the week, finished with 19 points, four steals, two assists and four 3s. The Gaels could be this season's Air Force from 2006, a team that didn't have the power wins but still got an at-large berth. The committee will have to decide if Mills makes the Gaels one of the best 34 teams -- a subjective decision without a right or wrong answer.
• Tulsa coach Doug Wojcik said this week that the Golden Hurricane had only one chance to be an at-large team. They had to beat UAB in the semifinals and then lose in a close game to host Memphis in the Conference USA final. That's exactly the script. If that occurs, there is no guarantee Tulsa still gets a bid. But the committee must pay even more attention to this early Saturday final.
• Arizona State made the Pac-10 final and that should help its seeding; for weeks, ASU has been all over the place on the seed line. Speaking of all over the place, USC has suddenly rediscovered its talent over the last couple of days, beating Cal and UCLA to reach the championship game. An automatic berth by the Trojans would further complicate matters for the committee.
• The committee may have judged Illinois differently had it lost after Chester Frazier broke his hand. But the Illini beat Michigan handily and now can be judged as a quality team as it prepares for the Big Ten semifinals against Purdue, while Michigan State still seeks a No. 1 seed as it faces Ohio State in the other semifinal.
• Louisville can make its claim for a No. 1 seed by beating Syracuse in the Big East championship. The committee will have to look at the Cardinals' body of work to determine if they are truly deserving of the honor, as the Orange start to climb toward a top-four seed.
• The committee doesn't have to worry about two bids out of the MEAC on Saturday. But if Morgan State can beat Norfolk State in Winston-Salem, N.C., it could cause a ripple on two fronts. Former banished Cal coach Todd Bozeman would be back in the NCAAs after a 12-year absence and would complete a remarkable career turnaround, while the Bears (who beat Maryland, by the way) might be an intriguing 15-seed instead of a 16. That would be great news for a conference constantly looking for some positive pub.
