ESPN Golf Blog

Posted by Nathan Easler

Amazing. Unbelievable. Not from this solar system.

There are no superlatives in the English language that give justice to the things Tiger Woods is able to do on the golf course, especially when it matters the most. This week the stats blog attempts to quantify just how improbable Tiger's putting performance was in his repeat victory at Bay Hill and details the ebb and flow of Tiger's return to the winner's circle.

Just how clutch was Tiger at the Arnold Palmer Invitational? Let's dissect the stats that led him to his 66th PGA Tour victory. Tiger put together quite the highlight reel of long-range putts over the weekend at Arnie's place.

Looking at the table below, Tiger's long putting was better than the field's almost all the way around. More importantly, it was the timing of dropping these bombs that completely changed the complexion of the tournament and put the pressure on 54-hole leader and eventual runner-up Sean O'Hair.

Tiger made two putts longer than 25 feet all week -- the first being a bogey-saving bomb on 18 on Saturday. This putt was arguably more important than the one to win on 18 on Sunday because it helped solidify his spot with O'Hair in the final pairing Sunday. You've got to believe that O'Hair's nerves and game would have been different had Tiger been playing in the group in front of him.

Moving onto Sunday's home stretch, the 206-yard, par-3 14th hole was the turning point. Tiger found himself buried up against the lip of a steep greenside bunker with an impossible stance, while O'Hair had a nice 15-foot birdie opportunity from the fringe.

What looked to be a potential 2-shot swing ended up as a push when O'Hair's birdie putt slid just below the hole and Tiger made a miraculous sand save, capped by holing a 13-foot putt.

The second putt of more than 25 feet holed by Woods was for birdie on No. 15 on Sunday. This got him his first share of a lead since last year's U.S. Open.

Last but not least is the 72nd-hole magic that Tiger once again brought us by rolling one in from more than 15 feet for birdie and the victory. This was the first birdie Tiger had on Nos. 16-18 all week.

Just how improbable was it that all four of these putts found the bottom of the cup? As a very crude method of estimation, we'll just look at the probability of these putts all dropping as if they were independent consecutive events (which wasn't the case here.)

Using the field average putting rates from each of these distances, we would expect all four putts to go in once in roughly 6,500 attempts. 6,500-1 is the normal odds; Tiger is nothing close to normal. It is hard to believe we have come to expect this sort of improbable performance from Tiger.

What is equally important, but history will likely forget, is how great Tiger's short putting was all week. Tiger was 54 of 54 from 5 feet and in this week, and 63 of 66 from inside 10 feet. This putting rate of 95.5 percent from inside 10 feet blew away the field average of 86.7 percent. Taking the field average for success rate and attempts, Tiger gained roughly 6.6 shots on the field just by his putting from inside 10 feet.

Tiger bested O'Hair across the board Sunday, but a couple items really stand out.

In the final round, Tiger took six less putts (six was the margin he beat O'Hair by on Sunday -- 67 to 73), hit five more fairways, stood nearly 14 feet closer to the pin on average from his approach shots and made nearly 53 more feet of putts.

Drive for show, putt for dough
Tiger was a completely different player this week at Bay Hill compared to two weeks ago at Doral. He put on a ball-striking clinic at Doral, but finished T-9 as he couldn't get his putter going.

This week was just the opposite: His ball striking was below average, but his short game was nothing short of spectacular. If you ever had any doubt that tournaments are won and lost with the flatstick, check out Tiger's comparison between Doral and Bay Hill below.

These are some extremely polarized stats. It is almost as though Tiger's ball striking and short game ranks were swapped for the two events. These extremes hold true almost across the board, with the exception of scrambling, in which he finished first and fourth at Bay Hill and Doral, respectively.

It should also be mentioned that comparing the raw stats from Bay Hill and Doral needs to be qualified. So far this season, Bay Hill is the toughest venue on tour out of 19 courses in terms of scoring average, birdie average and GIR.

Other than the multiple courses at the Bob Hope Classic and Kapalua, Doral is the next easiest course in terms of scoring. The winning tally at Bay Hill was Woods at 5 under, while at Doral it was Phil Mickelson at 19 under.

A couple of stats that make the difference in course difficulty clear are scrambling and proximity. Tiger's approach-shot proximity at Bay Hill was not quite 2 feet more than at Doral, but he fell 48 spots in rank at Doral. Woods led the field at Bay Hill in scrambling at 72.7 percent, while at Doral, an 82.6 percent scrambling rate was good for fourth in that category.

Notables
All-time PGA Tour victories:

1. Sam Snead -- 82; won 66th (1952 All American Open) at the age of 40 years, 2 months, 6 days

2. Jack Nicklaus -- 73; won 66th (1978 The Players Championship) at the age of 38 years, 1 month, 29 days

3. Tiger Woods -- 66; won 66th (2009 Arnold Palmer Invitational) at the age of 33 years, 2 months, 29 days

• Tiger has won 18 of his past 31 PGA Tour starts (58 percent) dating back to 2006 British Open.

• Tiger has won 66 out of 225 (29.33 percent) professional starts on the PGA Tour.

• Out of Woods' 66 career wins, he has now come from behind for victory 19 times.

• Tiger matched his largest PGA Tour comeback after 54 holes (5 strokes) with his victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Woods also came back from 5 strokes after 54 holes to win the 2000 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, where he held off Mark Brooks and Matt Gogel.

• Woods played flawlessly on holes 7-15 at Bay Hill, shooting 12-under par with no bogeys. Holes 1-6 and 16-18 were a different story as he finished 7-over par, including one double, nine bogeys and only four birdies during that stretch.

• In 13 full seasons as a pro, only once has Woods gone into the Masters without a victory under his belt (1998).

• O'Hair is now winless in four attempts when holding at least a share of the third-round lead, including last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished T-3. He also led in 2007 at the Players Championship (finished 11th) and at the 2005 EDS Byron Nelson Championship (finished second). Last year, O'Hair was tied with four other players, including Woods, going into the final round at Bay Hill.

• O'Hair had only one bogey in each of the first two rounds but tallied five in the third round and four in the fourth round.

• Nick Watney and O'Hair have won twice apiece on the PGA Tour and have started their 2009 seasons at a blistering pace. Both have played in eight events and finished in the top 25 seven times. Watney has three top-10s, including a victory at the Buick and a runner-up at Doral; O'Hair has four top-10s, including his runner-up finish this week.

• Hunter Mahan stood a good chance of breaking the PGA Tour record for fewest putts in nine holes after chipping in on three of his first four holes Saturday. Mahan had three putts through five holes and was threatening the record of six putts in nine holes by Stan Utley. Mahan finished with 10 putts on his outward nine.

• On Friday, Mark Calcavecchia made the 500th cut of his career. Jay Haas holds the PGA Tour record with 592.

Send comments, suggestions and corrections to Nathan.J.Easler@espn.com.