ESPN Golf Blog

Posted by Nathan Easler

As the last tournament before the Masters, the Shell Houston Open at Redstone Golf Club continues to draw an increasingly elite field. Word of mouth seems to have spread; this year's field is full of many of the finest players on both the European Tour and the PGA Tour.

This week's headliners include Phil Mickelson, Geoff Ogilvy, Padraig Harrington, Rory McIlroy, Camilo Villegas, Sergio Garcia and Vijay Singh. The field is without only two of the top 10 in the world -- No. 1 Tiger Woods and No. 9 Kenny Perry. The other eight will play this week in Humble, Texas.

One reason for the increased popularity of this event is the course setup at the par-72, 7,457-yard layout. The players have said that every year the course conditions improve and the venue becomes more and more like Augusta National.

Several players have said the fairways are mowed nearly identically to Augusta, and the firm and fast nature of the fairways and greens provides an excellent way to prepare for the year's first major.

For players not already exempt for the Masters, the Shell Houston Open features the last chance to earn a place next week at Augusta. The win-and-you're-in opportunity at the Shell was brought back last year after a nearly 10-year hiatus (it had been in play from 1972 to 1999). Johnson Wagner picked up his first tour win at the 2008 edition of the event and punched his ticket to Augusta.

Redstone GC also features some of the largest greens on tour, offers up a lot of birdies from the rough, allows good opportunities to make short putts and features one of the toughest closing holes of the year. Expect the course to play much easier than Augusta, or even Bay Hill, for that matter; Redstone ranked 30th of 54 in scoring difficulty last year. So where did Redstone GC rank in 2008?

The recipe for success
As usual, greens in regulation is the best predictor of tournament placing. Scrambling percentage ranks a close second. However, a couple of paradoxes exist at the Redstone Golf Club. Despite the large greens, proximity has not been one of the most important statistics to determining who has played well here. The other caveat is that despite the high birdie rate from the rough, driving accuracy is more important to success than driving distance.

Another interesting item is that Australian players have done well at the Shell Houston Open. Six different players from Down Under have won: Bruce Devlin, Bruce Crampton (twice), David Graham, Stuart Appleby (twice), Robert Allenby, and Adam Scott.

This year, 14 Australians are in the field, the most notable names being Ogilvy and Greg Norman. Appleby also plays this week, and he brings an all-or-nothing record to this event. In eight previous starts, he has won twice (1999, 2006), finished second twice (2003, 2007), had a T-23 and missed the cut the other three times.

Fantasy foursomes
To make this week's picks, let's look for some solid iron players and quality putters, grab an Aussie and take advantage of the opportunity to use some of the European Tour's elite.

• Ogilvy has been the leader out of the gates this season. He is still atop the FedExCup standings and the money list. He leads the PGA Tour in putts per GIR, average birdies per round and birdie conversion percentage. Ogilvy has three top-10s here, and his name would fit nicely on the Shell Houston Open champion list alongside the names of several of his fellow countrymen.

• Steve Stricker seems to be making another comeback. It seems long ago, but it was just 2007 when Stricker was ranked as high as No. 4 in the world. He already has six top-25 finishes in seven events this year, including a runner-up and a third-place finish.

Stricker ranks 13th on tour in GIR, sixth in putts per GIR, first in all-around ranking, first in scrambling and fifth in scoring average. He has finished in the top five in Houston three times.

• McIlroy hasn't played enough rounds on the PGA Tour to be officially included in the statistical ranks, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered a solid play. He already won at Dubai and had an impressive showing at the WGC Match Play (losing to eventual champ Ogilvy). He is averaging more than four birdies per round on the PGA Tour this year and has converted more than 37 percent of his birdie putts.

• You could pick Robert Karlsson or Henrik Stenson. Although these players lack experience in this event, it is not very often you get to use a top-10 golfer in the world as "C" players. Although a bit of the pick is just name appeal, you can't argue with the upside here in the seventh- and 10th-ranked players in the world.

The starters: Ogilvy, Stricker, McIlroy, Karlsson.

Next in line: Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Chad Campbell, Stenson.

Send comments, suggestions and corrections to Nathan.J.Easler@espn.com.