Posted by Matt Willis
Hope everybody used the off weekend (at least in the Sprint Cup Series) to reflect on the season that has been.
I also hope you made the most of that reflection time, because there isn't another off weekend until July -- unless you count the All-Star Race (and I don't).
In fact, there's probably no better time to take a look at some of my fearless preseason predictions -- and to make a couple more.
I didn't mention David Reutimann in my preseason predictions, but I did target him in my fantasy draft. He hasn't shocked me by staying in the running so far, but I don't think that team is quite there yet. Look for him to turn in a couple more top-5s but just miss the Chase.
I said Montoya would win a race on something other than a road course, and I'm sticking to it. He has been a beacon of light for an otherwise dark Earnhardt Ganassi Racing team, especially one that could be losing Martin Truex Jr. by year's end.
The three new drivers I picked to join the Chase currently reside outside the top 12, but look for Mark Martin and Brian Vickers to make runs.
Want three more to hold against me at season's end? Let's ride.
No Dodges in the Chase last year? That'll change in 2009. Kasey Kahne will come up just short, but Kurt Busch is in. AJ Allmendinger will get seat time in the 43 if sponsorship can't be found for the 44 for the season's final 10 races. My constant references to sandwiches will continue -- and ultimately pay off with a sweet sponsorship deal.
Now here's a look ahead to Phoenix this weekend, accompanied by the finest in NASCAR loop data statistics.
What he's looking four
Jimmie Johnson will be going for his fourth straight win at Phoenix. It doesn't seem all that special, since he has won four in a row before (at Charlotte in 2004-05).
But don't sleep on this possible milestone: Only three drivers -- Darrell Waltrip, Richard Petty and Bobby Isaac -- have won four consecutive races on multiple tracks in NASCAR Cup Series history.
You don't need any statistical background to know how good the 48 is in the desert. He leads the series in everything at Phoenix -- driver rating, average running position, fastest laps run and green-flag speed -- since it started tracking the data in 2005.
Where there's Smoke …
One of my less successful preseason forecasts was a prediction that Tony Stewart would be one of the drivers to miss the Chase. What can I say? I thought it would take a year to get the Stewart-Haas Racing program fully up to speed.
Hendrick Motorsports has dominated at this track over the last two seasons, with Johnson winning three races and Jeff Gordon the fourth. Stewart basically is running another Hendrick team, which makes him dangerous.
And it won't matter where he qualifies. Over the last four seasons, no one has posted a better pass differential at Phoenix than Stewart, and it hasn't been close.
Best green-flag pass differential in last four seasons at Phoenix
Driver -- Pass Differential
Tony Stewart -- +158
Jeff Burton -- +99
Kyle Busch -- +97
Denny Hamlin -- +89
Jimmie Johnson -- +86
It's Fenway or the highway
Roush Fenway Racing's early-season struggles have been one of the main points of discussion during the off week. But this could be the week to turn it around.
Roush hasn't won at Phoenix since 2005, but its five wins rank second all time at the track (behind only Hendrick's six). Four of those wins have come from drivers no longer with the team: Jeff Burton (twice), Mark Martin and Kurt Busch.
But looking at the past four seasons, during which the team has just one win at the track, Roush's drivers still have been among the fastest on the track.
Highest number of fastest laps run in last four seasons at Phoenix
* Current Roush Fenway driver
Driver -- Fastest laps
Jimmie Johnson -- 266
Greg Biffle* -- 257
Carl Edwards* -- 181
Kurt Busch -- 142
Kevin Harvick -- 134
Mark Martin -- 120
Matt Kenseth* -- 111
Don't forget to send those e-mail questions my way at ESPNMattWillis@yahoo.com. I'll also accept any glowing praise, and it's an excellent place to exchange design ideas. I'll just have to forward them to my mom.
Matt Willis is a studio researcher at ESPN. He can be reached at ESPNMattWillis@yahoo.com.
