Posted by Jeremy Mills
There are five weeks until the selection committee announces the 64-team baseball tournament. As many schools come to the end of the semester and head into finals, here's how the regionals could shape up as of mid-April. This will be a weekly feature heading up to the selection show on Memorial Day, and this week's projections will be a little long because I spelled out some of the decision-making process since they're the first of the year.
First, the 11 conferences with more than one bid:
Eight teams -- SEC
Seven teams -- ACC, Big 12
Four teams -- Big West, Southern
Three teams -- Mountain West, Pac-10
Two teams -- Big Ten, Conference USA, Sun Belt, West Coast
It's been a down year for the Pac-10 and Conference USA -- the conferences are typically in contention to send five teams each to the field of 64, but this year they'll be hard-pressed to match that number combined. And unless Southern Miss or one of the middle-of-the-pack Pac-10 teams gets hot down the stretch, they could get only two teams each.
Their loss is somebody else's gain -- and in 2009, the two most likely beneficiaries are the Southern Conference and Mountain West Conference. Each could get as many as four teams in, and unless several teams swoon down the stretch, they should each get at least three apiece.
No big surprises among the other big conferences this year -- everyone who makes the SEC tournament should also be among the last 64 standing. That's also possible for the ACC, with Virginia Tech and Duke lurking on the fringes of consideration. Seven might be the upper bound for the Big 12; if Missouri gets hot down the stretch and gets into contention, it will likely come at the expense of one of the Kansas teams or Oklahoma State.
As for the 16 host sites (in this case, all No. 1 seeds), here's how things look through April 19:
ACC (4): Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina
Big 12 (2): Baylor, Texas
Big Ten (1): Ohio State
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina
Big West (2): Cal State Fullerton, UC Irvine
C-USA (1): Rice
MWC (1): TCU
Pac-10 (1): Arizona State
SEC (3): Arkansas, Georgia, LSU
The three teams with the most tenuous grips are Coastal Carolina (especially after struggling this weekend), Clemson (there will be four ACC hosts, but the last spot could go to Florida State or Virginia) and Ohio State (RPI won't be great at the end of the season, but a great chance for the NCAA to reward a strong northern school). The teams most likely to jump into consideration are the ACC duo of Florida State and Virginia (along with Clemson, a three-team race for one hosting slot), Ole Miss (next in line among the SEC teams), Oklahoma (if it can rebound from a tough weekend against Texas) and Cinderella-candidate Hawaii (great RPI and gets to host the WAC tournament in Honolulu).
THE REGIONALS
It's time to unveil the 16 regional projections. National seeds are listed, and the regional following the national seed is paired against it in the super regionals.
Chapel Hill Regional: North Carolina (No. 1 national seed), East Carolina, Kansas State, George Mason
Conway Regional: Coastal Carolina, Florida State, College of Charleston, Rhode Island
Fullerton Regional: Cal State Fullerton (No. 2), San Diego, USC, Manhattan
Tempe Regional: Arizona State, Cal Poly, BYU, Eastern Illinois
Atlanta Regional: Georgia Tech (No. 3), Auburn, Georgia Southern, Central Connecticut State
Irvine Regional: UC Irvine, Virginia, San Diego State, Bucknell
Austin Regional: Texas (No. 4), Alabama, Gonzaga, UIC
Fort Worth Regional: TCU, Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist, Oral Roberts
Houston Regional: Rice (No. 5), Texas A&M, UC Santa Barbara, Dartmouth
Baton Rouge Regional: LSU, Hawaii, Boston College, Southern
Athens Regional: Georgia (No. 6), Elon, Middle Tennessee State, Jacksonville
Clemson Regional: Clemson, South Carolina, Western Carolina, Maine
Coral Gables Regional: Miami (No. 7), Florida, Kansas, Bethune-Cookman
Columbus Regional: Ohio State, Oregon State, Louisville, Kent State
Fayetteville Regional: Arkansas (No. 8), Oklahoma State, Western Kentucky, Missouri State
Waco Regional: Baylor, Ole Miss, Minnesota, Texas State
Last Five In: USC, Dallas Baptist, Gonzaga, Middle Tennessee State, College of Charleston
Next Nine In: Southeastern Louisiana, Loyola Marymount, Vanderbilt, UNC Wilmington, San Jose State, Kentucky, Troy, Virginia Tech, Long Beach State
NOTES
Among the national seeds, Arkansas lays claim to the final spot by playing well on the road after LSU lost three games at home this week. Along with the Bayou Bengals, Arizona State also has a solid claim for a national seed, which would most likely come at the expense of a struggling Miami team.
As for the overall seedings, things tended to break down into three main clusters. The first 13 teams fell into place pretty nicely, which left an interesting debate (hashed out earlier) over the last three hosts. Then there was a group of 18 more teams that were a step down from that first group, which filled out the last three No. 1s and all but one of the No. 2 seeds. That left room for 15 more at-large teams, with Elon getting the last of the 2-seeds and the others slotted as 3s.
Everyone does a "Last Five In," but in this case, it was really more of a "Last Three In." Middle Tennessee State (or Western Kentucky, whichever doesn't win the Sun Belt) and College of Charleston are both on the safe side; Gonzaga, Dallas Baptist and USC are really the bubble teams at this point. Dallas Baptist doesn't have as strong a schedule as it did when it earned an at-large last year, so the Patriots would be easy for the committee to overlook. The selection of USC was on the basis of the Trojans looking like the best of the rest in the Pac-10. The other slot will likely go to the second-place team in the West Coast Conference, which should be Gonzaga or Loyola Marymount.
Then again, with three or four upsets in conference tournaments, the Last Five In section becomes moot. The prime candidates to be bubble busters are borderline No. 3 seeds from one-bid conferences: Texas State (Southland), George Mason (Colonial), Rhode Island (Atlantic 10) and Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley). But any upset could leave the bubble teams on the outside looking in on Memorial Day.
Among those that just missed, Southeastern Louisiana has the strongest claim -- and given the penchant for upsets in the Southland tournament, that could spell trouble for others with Texas State also in contention for an at-large slot. Vanderbilt and Kentucky fall victim to the SEC numbers game, but could overtake Auburn or South Carolina with a strong late push. UNC Wilmington hosts the Colonial tournament, while San Jose State is among the list of contenders to knock off Hawaii in the WAC tournament.
That does it for this week's aluminum-bat version of bracketology. As always, comments are welcome.
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