Posted by Stephen Tignor, TENNIS.com
The list of life's absolutes is short and grim. There's death. There are taxes. But today's ATP pros have it even worse. They must face one more harsh certainty: Rafael Nadal on clay.
Nadal has lost just two matches on the surface in the last two years. The year before that, he didn't lose any. For the next six weeks, you must begin each tournament by picking Nadal to win and then asking who has the best chance, percentage-wise, to stop his march to the trophy ceremony. The rest of the field has three more opportunities this spring -- maybe two, if, as Nadal has hinted, he skips the event in Madrid because he fears the altitude will throw off his preparation for Paris. Who, as of today, stands the best chance of doing the impossible?
Roger Federer: He has won once in 10 tries against Nadal on clay, at Hamburg in 2007. Since then, Nadal has extended his hex over the former No. 1 to grass and hard courts. And the way Nadal leveled him in Paris last year, you can't have high hopes for Federer to be the miracle worker. His forehand has only become more erratic since then, and Rafa has only gotten better. Chances: 10 percent
Andy Murray: Of the top players, Murray has the most confidence against Nadal. He beat him at the U.S. Open last year and gave him a scare for a set on clay in Monte Carlo. The trouble for Murray, as he showed with his opening-round loss Wednesday in Rome, will be getting to Nadal. He can only face him in the semis or finals, and that's a lot of dirtball for a guy who is still learning how to win on the stuff. Chances: 12 percent (docked because he's out for Rome)
Novak Djokovic: The testy Serb found his groove against Rafa in the Monte Carlo final. But even Djokovic's best wasn't enough, as Nadal won going away in the third. Djokovic is a more accomplished clay-courter than Murray, and less prone to early-round upsets, but he can't have a lot of confidence that he can seal the deal against Nadal on clay, even when everything is clicking. Chances: 15 percent
Nikolay Davydenko: His ability to move his opponents off the court and punish short balls has given Nadal fits on clay. But the Spaniard seemed to go out of his way to demoralize him in straight sets last week in Barcelona. Still, the Russian remains a wild card in a two-of-three-setter, and he may play Nadal in the semis in Rome. Chances: 12 percent
Fernando Verdasco: You remember their match at the Australian Open in January. But do you remember the way Nadal beat his fellow Spaniard like a redheaded stepchild at the French Open last year? Chances: 7 percent
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Jo Willie has the game and no fear of Nadal, whom he has generally played very well. But Tsonga's behind even Murray in his clay-court evolution, having missed the spring season last year. If it's two-of-three and he's serving lights-out, he could sneak one past Rafa. If not, he can't. Chances: 6 percent
Juan Martin del Potro: The Argentine kid seems to have made hard courts his specialty. He beat Nadal on them in Key Biscayne last month. That may be unfortunate if he faces Nadal. The Spaniard likes to use the clay season to stop any momentum that a player could build against him. Chances: 5 percent
Fernando Gonzalez: Gonzo has the guns, but he usually misfires against Nadal. He lost to him in straights in the Rome final two years ago and in the Olympic gold medal match last summer. Still, if he catches Nadal on the early side, he has a puncher's chance. If it's in a final, forget it. Chances: 6 percent
Then again, as I'm writing this, I'm watching Nadal make two of the most outrageous gets I've ever seen in his opening match in Rome against Andreas Seppi. Right now, all those percentages I've cited just look like lonely, pointless numbers. At the moment, I'd say these guys have about as much chance of beating him as you or I do of not having to pay our taxes.
