If you ask me, there are two kinds of draws: good draws and bad draws. A good draw is one you survive to reach or surpass your station in the game; a bad draw is one that keeps you from doing that. Nobody knows how good or bad a draw is until it is filled in. Are you going to tell me Rafael Nadal had a good draw in Paris, where he ended up meeting -- and losing to -- Robin Soderling, a journeyman on a career run?
In a game with the degree of depth tennis has today, bracketology is not just an inexact science. It's an utterly bogus science, because every draw is a minefield and nobody knows where the explosives are until they go boom! So let's do something more sensible: Let's look at the players who are best positioned -- by virtue of their recent accomplishments, history or alignment of the stars -- to come up big at Wimbledon, regardless of the draw:
1. Roger Federer. This guy doesn't have a care in the world now that he has earned his career Grand Slam. He has plenty of time to break the Slam singles title record he shares with Pete Sampras (they both have 14), and there isn't another specific accomplishment on his to-do list. On top of that, his nemesis and rival -- defending champion Nadal -- has serious knee problems and might pull out of the event. I see this tournament as Federer's victory lap.
2. Venus Williams. The women's defending champ has become a Wimbledon icon. It's almost as if she decided at some point that, while baby sister Serena needed a lot of Grand Slam love, Wimbledon was going to be the one place where she put her foot down and said, "Not so fast, sis -- this one is mine!" There's no question that Venus owns the best grass-court game among the women, simply because no other woman can match the advantage she enjoys in her serve. The real question is how Venus will fare in these days when waning motivation seems to be an issue for both Willamses.
3. Andy Murray. Coming off his big win at Queens Club, Murray has to go into Wimbledon feeling good about his chances. A number of people were disappointed by his somewhat lackluster performance against Fernando Gonzalez at Roland Garros (Gonzo won their quarterfinal encounter with ease), but Murray, a Scot, will like the cool British climate better. I also don't think he feels nearly the same degree of pressure to win at Wimbledon that he would if he were a bona fide Englishman, a la Tim Henman. Braketologists probably will love his draw.
4. Victoria Azarenka. This player is a little powderkeg and a perfect example of what might be called a hungry newcomer. She won her first big title on the hard courts in Miami in April, and if she keeps her temper in check, she could make her Grand Slam breakthrough on grass. She's in the same quarter as Serena Williams, but I believe Azarenka is in a better place, emotionally and mentally.
5. Novak Djokovic. The way he was upset in the third round at Roland Garros must have been a shock to him, so he'll want (and need) to bounce back strong. He has had good results on grass, but he doesn't have the compact game or style (there are a lot of moving parts in Djokovic's game, all of them visible) that is so handy on grass. If he can tighten things up, though, he'll be dangerous.
6. Svetlana Kuznetsova. Top-ranked and top-seeded Dinara Safina has to be haunted by her unexpected and bitterly disappointing loss to Kuznetsova in the Roland Garros final. But that win on red clay might give Kuznetsova sufficient drive to complete a mid-career makeover from unpredictable choker into bankable champion. Kuznetsova's athleticism helps her on all surfaces, and her experience as a (now) two-time Grand Slam event winner will make her dangerous in the later rounds.
Peter Bodo
