Posted by Christopher Harris
Last week, the Jaguars gave receiver Dennis Northcutt permission to seek a trade, and I said I didn't think that was likely to happen. Well, I was wrong. Northcutt was dealt to the Lions in exchange for safety Gerald Alexander, a trade that I actually rather like for Jacksonville. Alexander started every game his rookie season, then missed most of last season with a broken vertebra, but he can play in the nickel and could even get a look at free safety during training camp. Meanwhile, Northcutt joins a growing group of mediocre receivers in Detroit, where Bryant Johnson, Ronald Curry and Derrick Williams were already battling for the second receiver job behind Calvin Johnson. Northcutt represents direct competition for Williams, a rookie who missed time at organized team activities this spring because of a hamstring injury, for a role as slot receiver, and Northcutt could also be one of the team's return options. But he's far from useful in a fantasy league. Bryant Johnson reportedly has a bead on the No. 2 role right now.
Meanwhile, in Jacksonville there's really nothing left but rookies behind starters Torry Holt and Mike Walker. Mike Thomas, Jarett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood will compete to be the third receiver in the Jags' offense, and (as I said last week) while I know Dillard has made a nice splash in OTAs, my favorite to win Northcutt's former slot role is Thomas, whom I really liked at the University of Arizona. He's a smart player with terrific hands whom David Garrard can count on. I don't think he'll be ownable in standard fantasy leagues, but he could see the field a lot in his first year.
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Greg Knapp told reporters last week that he plans on installing a rotation among his running backs this season, with no one rusher dominating carries. This is obviously bad news for anyone who was ready to jump aboard the Julius Jones train again. T.J. Duckett figures to get into the mix for carries, as will Justin Forsett. Even newly acquired starting fullback Justin Griffith could join the vulture club. Man, just typing their names, I realize what an unimpressive group that is.
Multiple sources reported early this week that NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is in the process of reviewing the cases of Michael Vick and Plaxico Burress, and that the results of these reviews are likely to be long and perhaps indeterminate suspensions well into the 2009 season. Each player is hoping to latch on with a team this summer, but interested squads apparently aren't likely to get much guidance from the league about how long Vick and/or Burress will be unavailable. Burress' court case on gun-related charges isn't likely to be heard until 2010 and of course Vick has already been released from prison after serving time for dogfighting charges.
The first receiver taken in April's draft, Darrius Heyward-Bey, told reporters that his injured hamstring is only "at 80 percent." DHB will have a ton of pressure on him in his first several years in the league, as he tries to justify being selected before Michael Crabtree. But of course, the main thing Heyward-Bey does well is run fast in a straight line, something he can't do if his legs aren't healthy. This doesn't look like it'll end well. DHB doesn't look like a starter in Oakland right now; Chaz Schilens looks like the best receiver JaMarcus Russell will have, and Johnnie Lee Higgins looks like the other starter.
The Buccaneers keep putting out mixed signals about whether rookie quarterback Josh Freeman is legitimately in the running to be their starter to begin the '09 season. The only pattern I can really glean in the beat reporters' thoughts on the matter is that Freeman probably will be given a long look, and the team is paying lots of lip service to the idea that he could actually be the Bucs' Week 1 guy. But I have to believe that's meant to make Freeman feel good. This kid was raw even at Kansas State. He would not do well as an immediate starter. I still think Luke McCown is the best bet, though he wouldn't be much of a fantasy play. Byron Leftwich still just doesn't seem like a good fit for a West Coast offense.
The 49ers' official site reports that Mike Singletary says the quarterback battle between Shawn Hill and Alex Smith is supposedly "even" heading into training camp. I cannot possibly believe this is true. I have to believe it's a motivational ploy for Hill. Smith is coming off surgery and has proved next to nothing in the NFL. While Hill may not have Smith's tools, he's won games each of the past two years, and offers the kind of low-risk play that Singletary prizes. I strongly believe the lead guy will eventually be Hill.
The Bills' official Web site reports that rookie tight end Shawn Nelson isn't likely to be Buffalo's starter at the position this season. Apparently the team has worked out Nelson quite a bit split wide, running short wide receiver routes. But the Bills still view Nelson as a third-down-only option at the moment. The kid has an enormous wingspan and would have lots of potential as a fantasy sleeper if he were to see the field on first and second downs. But this news pretty much takes the fantasy steam out of him, at least until further notice. Derek Schouman looks like the starter, though he won't be a frequent receiving target.
The Kansas City Star reports that the Chiefs apparently will go with third-year player Tank Tyler as their starting nose tackle in their newly installed 3-4 defense, with former LSU teammates Glenn Dorsey and (thus far unsigned) Tyson Jackson at the defensive end spots. Wow, does this ever sound bad. Tyler isn't a two-gap player, and is going to make the Chiefs very susceptible to the run. Dorsey and Jackson are two very high draft picks who are being asked to play a selfless "Richard Seymour" role, i.e., occupy linemen without the glamour of actual sacks. And the outside linebackers, Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson, are going to struggle in coverage. I don't think the Chiefs will register a record-low 10 sacks again in 2009, as they did in '08. But this doesn't look like a stable front seven (especially with ancient Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas at inside linebacker).
Sean Payton told reporters this weekend that Joey Harrington and Mark Brunell will compete in training camp for the No. 2 role behind Drew Brees. Brees has been an iron man during his time in New Orleans, but obviously anything can happen, injury-wise. If Brees ever gets hurt, the quarterback who inherits his gig will be worth fantasy consideration.
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