Today, you can all call me the Talladega Truther. I'm not wearing a cape, but I'm going to come to the aid of the helpless. Defend those without a voice. Stick up for the disenfranchised.
You can imagine somebody waving an American flag right now and maybe some bravery-inspiring music playing behind me. I really need to hire somebody to do that.
Anyways, I'm sticking up for Talladega today, and the drivers who race there. Leading up to Sunday's race, you're going to hear a lot of people talking about how it's a crapshoot and how just about any of the 43 drivers in the field can win the race.
And while it might be true that the field won't be more equal from 1 to 43 at any other track this season, I'm going to stand up for the skill involved in restrictor-plate racing. That at the end of the day, the cream is going to rise to the top and somebody will have to make a daring move to get a win.
While I won't guarantee that we won't have an upset winner, I will make a bold prediction and say that a familiar face will find Victory Lane on Sunday. And check my record with bold predictions, I'm doing pretty good.
If you're still doubting me, let me give a couple facts to back up what I'm throwing down.
First and foremost
I know what you're thinking. "Matt, you've got a rather short memory. Don't you remember what happened at Talladega earlier this season?"
Of course I do! They didn't give me a blog for nothing. I had to blackmail and extort my way to the top! Wait, is this really the top?
OK, Brad Keselowski did get his first career win (and he led a lap) earlier this season at Talladega. But even though he did so for Phoenix Racing, he had Hendrick support in getting that win.
And would you believe that over the last 20 seasons, Keselowski is just the second driver to get his first career Cup win at Talladega, joining Brian Vickers?
If you're looking for an upset, first-time winner, just turn to Charlotte or Daytona. We've had six first-time winners at each of those tracks over the last 20 seasons, including David Reutimann at Charlotte earlier this season. Or how about New Hampshire, where Joey Logano got his first win earlier in the season, bringing the total to five in that span.
Talladega truth!
Experience needed
My next Talladega point has to do with the winners at the track dating back to 2007. Those five race winners have a combined 218 career Cup series wins and 10 championships. That's including Keselowski's grand total of one Cup win. Winners in that time include Jeff Gordon (twice), Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch.
If that's not an impressive group of drivers, then I don't know what I'm doing here.
If you look at the last five race winners for all active Cup tracks, only one track totals more combined wins than Dega from those five winners, and that's Phoenix. Jimmie Johnson (three times), Mark Martin and Gordon have combined for 260 wins.
But that's enough Talladega truth. I've gotten my point across.
One for the road
If you came looking for a little loop data and maybe somebody to watch for Sunday afternoon, I don't want to turn you away empty-handed.
And so I turn you to last week's winner, Denny Hamlin. He's already mastered the shortest track on the circuit -- next, it might be time for the longest. Check out his ranks at Dega since 2005 among drivers who have made multiple starts:
Hamlin at Talladega
Driver rating, 94.8, first
Average position, 13.6, second
Laps led, 164, fourth
Quality passes per race, 213.6, seventh
FYI: Quality passes are green-flag passes inside the top 15.
That's all I have for you and my Junior Talladega Truthers this weekend. Enjoy the race!
Matt Willis
