Crew chief Chad Knaus celebrates history as Jimmie Johnson wins a fourth consecutive title
What did you take away from Sunday's season finale? Well, other than Jimmie Johnson is very, very good and will likely continue to be that good or perhaps even a little better for a long period of time? Call me a realist.
I saw Denny Hamlin come from the back and put on yet another impressive performance in the Chase. If we're going to compile a list of challengers who could deny Johnson's quest for a five-peat, I'm going to start with Hamlin and Mark Martin.
Sunday also gave us reasons to get excited for next season. It looks like Richard Childress Racing is getting up to speed and will take some momentum to the beaches in Daytona come February. It wasn't too long ago, just back in 2004, that RCR last went winless in a season. The next season, RCR got a win from Kevin Harvick in the fifth race. I also don't think we'll see back-to-back down seasons from Roush Fenway.
I also picked up that the snakebitten drivers are still snakebitten. Dale Earnhardt Jr. had his issues but showed a lot of speed in the early part of the race. Elliott Sadler and Reed Sorenson got caught up in a freak pit-road accident. Remind me not to ride in their passenger seats until we have an exorcism or something.
One more thing I'm excited for: We've got some nice rivalries that we can stick in the slow cooker heading to 2010. Hamlin versus Keselowski. Montoya versus Stewart. Cut me, Mick!
And now, some final thoughts coming out of Homestead. Then, you'll have a drastic cutback of Willis in the offseason, but I promise I'll be more diligent on Twitter, and don't forget that you can always reach me at ESPNMattWillis@yahoo.com.
The Lowe-down
I know you're on Jimmie Johnson overload right now, but let's put his streak in perspective. Nobody in the Cup, Nationwide or Truck series had ever won four consecutive championships until Mr. Johnson came along. Not Petty, not Earnhardt, not Waltrip, Gordon or Yarborough.
And since I'm an all-sports researcher out at ESPN, let's put it in the big picture. In the other four major sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL), no team had pulled off a four-peat since Wayne Gretzky's Edmonton Oilers of the early 1980s. In the NBA, you have to go to Red Auerbach's Boston Celtics to find the last team to win four in a row. In baseball, Joe DiMaggio and Yogi Berra were the stars of the day when the New York Yankees were the last team to go four in a row. And it's NEVER happened in the NFL.
I'm just saying, every time a team goes to a four-peat, there are legends involved. And, once we've had time to soak it all in and revisit the dynasty, we can attach the names of Johnson and Chad Knaus to those of Gretzky, Auerbach and DiMaggio.
Made you think? That's what I'm here to do.
Trivia break! Hendrick Motorsports became the first team to finish 1-2-3 in points, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. was hanging down there in 25th. Only one Hendrick driver who has run a full season has ever finished worse in points. Who was it?
Ham on a roll
Yes, I'm appointing Denny Hamlin as a title contender for 2010, and of course you have to start everybody behind the 48. But this season was a huge turning point for Hamlin. He has matured, is making fewer mistakes and he's proving he can win anywhere, going to Victory Lane on short tracks, intermediates and at Pocono.
One point that gets thrown around when people want to talk Chase points changes (I'm good with the current system, by the way) is that a driver should have a throwaway race or two.
Well, Hamlin was struck by several unfortunate races in the Chase. But if we up the throwaway number to four and just take a driver's six best points days in the Chase, Hamlin suddenly moves up into the No. 2 spot among Chasers.
Here's how they would rank if we tossed out each driver's bottom four finishes:
Jimmie Johnson -- 1,280
Denny Hamlin -- 1,162
Mark Martin -- 1,143 Kurt Busch -- 1,111 Jeff Gordon -- 1,108
Trivia break! Hamlin finished 38th, the worst starting spot to win at Homestead. Who was the last driver to start worse than 38th and win a race at any track?
Remember Carl?
Last season, Carl Edwards won a series-high nine Cup series races, and was anointed by some as a championship favorite in 2009, despite the existence of a driver who had won the past three titles.
This season, the Roush Fenway cars showed they had not adjusted to the new car or the testing ban quite like the Hendrick and Stewart-Haas organizations. What a change just a three-month offseason can make.
Only two drivers had won more races in a season than Edwards and gone winless the following season, and they both did so 14 years before Edwards was born.
In 1965, Ned Jarrett and Junior Johnson both won 13 races, but then in 1966, neither got back to Victory Lane.
Trivia break! Besides Edwards, who is the only other driver in NASCAR's modern era to have the outright Cup series lead in wins in one season, then go winless in the next?
Trivia break answers
1. In 2004, Terry Labonte finished 26th in points for Hendrick Motorsports.
2. You don't have to go too far back. Matt Kenseth won the 2009 Daytona 500 after starting 39th.
3. Kasey Kahne had the outright series lead with six wins in 2006 and then went winless in 2007.
Dealing in statistics and general bloggery (next-to-last column and inventing a new word!) means that I generally see a lot of information. I then turn said information around to make some notes, to inform my reading audience and to make predictions wherever I see fit.
However, I'll own up when I'm wrong, seeing as I usually don't hold back in voicing my opinion.
At the beginning of the season, I made five FEARLESS PREDICTIONS (imagine that in a deep, booming voice), so let's see how I did.
• Prediction: After a season that saw three drivers win a majority of the races, we'll see at least a dozen different drivers in Victory Lane.
Outcome: Ka-ching! There have been 14 going into the finale.
• Prediction: Martin Truex Jr. will be shopping himself to a new team before the end of the 2009 season.
Outcome: Check plus -- see you at Michael Waltrip Racing.
• Prediction: Unlike last year, we will see a first-time winner, and David Ragan will lead it off.
Outcome: Half credit -- no Ragan, but Brad Keselowski, David Reutimann and Joey Logano make three. Plus, Ragan won in the Nationwide Series. Give me two-thirds credit.
Outcome: I got two out of three on both of these, so give me some credit.
With my confidence running at its normal level (fair to middling), I signed up for the Chase Tracker Game on the NASCAR Media Web site. The goal: Predict each Chase race's winner, plus the order of the points after every race.
I started strong, but have since leveled out. I got only one driver's position correct after Phoenix, that being Tony Stewart in fifth. I had Johnson and Martin flip-flopped, and was one position off on Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle and Brian Vickers. Close ain't good enough here, though.
However, my past success was enough to rank me ahead of Miss USA and the two Miss Sprint Cups. Any way can I parlay this into a date? Please? (crickets)
It's not all good news, though; I do rank below some notables, such as Randy Moss, Emeril Lagasse, Chris Cooley and the rock band Foreigner.
Seriously, I'm behind Foreigner?! Let's just get on with the final loop-data preview blog this season.
Always room for improvement
Out of our scary department: Jimmie Johnson might actually be getting better.
GASP!
But it's true -- the 2009 Chase might be his best yet.
In 2007, Johnson got on a huge roll, winning four consecutive races going into the finale at Homestead. That season, his driver rating for the entire 10-race Chase was 114.1.
The next season, Johnson compiled three wins and had the Chase all but locked up going to South Florida. In the 2008 Chase, he put up a 116.2 driver rating.
This year, his driver rating is a 117.2 going into the finale. And that's with him crashing on Lap 3 at Texas!
It's shocking indeed, but make sure not to overgasp. ("Futurama" reference, anyone?)
But is he really the best?
I'm still going to say that Johnson is the best, despite this next note, but take out of this what you will.
Johnson's average position over the first nine races of the Chase is a very, very solid 10.1. That takes into account where he was running on every single lap he's logged in the Chase. The number obviously is dragged down by his back-running at Talladega and issues at Texas. Still, he's spent more than his fair share of time up front too.
However, no fewer than three Chase drivers have a better average position in the 2009 Chase than Johnson. Accompanying list!
Best average position in 2009 Chase
Mark Martin, 7.9
Jeff Gordon, 8.1
Juan Pablo Montoya, 10.0
Jimmie Johnson, 10.1 Kurt Busch, 10.2
Homestead stuff
Oh, yeah, there's still another race to be run. And, call me a fool (a lot of people do it), but I'm looking forward to a race where many drivers won't be thinking about points and will just go for the win.
And we could see somebody get an overdue win Sunday evening in the Sunshine State. Of the six drivers atop the driver rating list since 2005, five of them haven't won a race this season, and the sixth has to rub his chin quizzically before he remembers his last win.
Best driver rating at Homestead since 2005 Carl Edwards, 117.2 Matt Kenseth, 113.7
Martin Truex Jr., 105.7
Greg Biffle, 103.0
David Ragan, 95.4
Kevin Harvick, 94.7
Want one more bold prediction from your favorite blogger?
I'm feeling high-energy right now. And no, it's not just because of the newfound points race, nor the fact that I'm writing this column while eating a banana. Hooray potassium!
It's because I'm writing yet another fine piece of journalism for my loyal readers. I live to serve. I do other things, but I also do a lot of serving.
But I feel like this season's almost over (don't worry, next season is only, like, 18 days away), and we haven't really gotten to know each other yet. And one of the first things you realize when you get to know me is that you'd probably never think I was a NASCAR fan.
I'm from the great wilderness of upstate New York, where I'll be making cameo appearances during the holiday season, since I was looking to get somewhere colder than Connecticut. I know absolutely nothing about cars, can't change my oil (although I have a vague idea of where it comes out) and can't drive a stick shift (thus violating one of Barney Stinson's rules in the Bro Code).
I've never raced myself, but I'm downright filthy when it comes to NASCAR games on the Playstation. I consider myself a restrictor-plate specialist.
And, of course, I'm an open book. Feel free to e-mail me, even during the offseason, with any of your NASCAR-related quandaries, and remember that I'm on the Twitter. Make me the most popular ESPN.com columnist on there, and I'll rub it in the others' faces.
But now, let's move on to a little Phoenix preview. With the finest in NASCAR loop data and what have you.
Perfect 1(5)0
Since NASCAR began keeping loop data at the start of the 2005 season, a perfect 150 driver rating in a single race has been accomplished only 10 times. Just a little FYI, driver rating compiles several loop data statistics and pretty closely mirrors the NFL's passer rating scale.
Only two tracks have seen a perfect driver rating more than once, Pocono and Phoenix. Let's take a look at the two drivers to have done it at Phoenix, courtesy of NASCAR's Sultan of Stats, Mike Forde.
Kurt Busch (April 2005)
Average position -- 1.9
Fastest laps -- 76
Percentage of laps led -- 70.2
Kevin Harvick (November 2006)
Average position -- 1.2
Fastest laps run -- 72
Percentage of laps led -- 80.8
And why do I bring this up? Because last year at Phoenix, Jimmie Johnson became the first and only driver to put up a single-race driver rating of 149.9. He did this with an average position of 1.5, 66 fastest laps run and leading 69.3 percent of the laps.
There's a long formula to explain driver rating, but I only get so many characters for this blog, and it's pretty complicated.
Phoenix rising
Let's face it, Jimmie Johnson's very good at Phoenix. Last week proved anything can happen, but will lightning really strike twice?
His 5.4 career average finish at Phoenix ranks it as his second-best track, behind only Martinsville. But dating back to 2005, his loop data numbers are downright bananas (banana reference No. 2!). Look at my trademark chart to see how far ahead of others he is.
Jimmie Johnson ranks at Phoenix since 2005
Average position -- 5.5 (8.7)
Driver rating -- 120.0 (102.4)
Fastest laps run -- 283 (264)
* 2nd-best in parentheses
The best one yet?
Let's take one more minute to appreciate how good Johnson's been this season. Not just in the Chase, but take the entire 2009 season as a whole.
How do you rank it up there against his last three seasons, all of which resulted in championships? Well, if you look just in terms of his average running position, race by race, for the entire season, this is his best performance yet.
Jimmie Johnson average running position, last four seasons
2009 -- 8.9
2008 -- 10.1
2007 -- 9.3
2006 -- 10.8
The kicker in 2007 is that even though Johnson won the championship, he did not lead the series in average running position. That honor went to the runner-up, Jeff Gordon. The 48 did lead every other season.
That's all I've got to offer for this week. Enjoy Phoenix, everybody!
You're going to read a lot of articles this week about how the points race is back on, although it's still a decent lead for Jimmie Johnson. And when you read all those, which I'm going to assume you'll do after reading mine (since you likely just set your home page to my blog), just remember one thing:
It was all me. That's right, I did it!
Well, that is, if you believe in the classic jinx method of luck. I finally gave in and admitted last week in the ol' blog that I thought the points race was over, and it took only three laps Sunday for Johnson to have some trouble.
I don't believe in the jinx factor or luck. It was bound to happen to Johnson at some point, after a series of near misses at Talladega gave him the monster points lead. It was like I predicted for Kevin Harvick earlier this season -- he had a great season, but he had gone so long without a DNF that he was just due.
But I also don't want to ignore any of the other big topics from the weekend. There were 42 other cars in the race besides the 48. So I'm going to get started without any more of my usual incoherent ramblings. For those and oh-so-much more, just check out my new Twitter account at twitter.com/MattWillisESPN.
Déjà vu
You know what I like about the term "déjà vu"? When I type it, it automatically adds the accents so it looks like I'm sort of a linguist.
Well, it shouldn't be any surprise whatsoever that Jimmie Johnson would take a points hit at Texas. Last year, a similar situation took place. While Johnson didn't finish in the 30s, he did finish 15th while the man second in points, Carl Edwards, took the win and shaved 77 off the lead.
This year, Martin's fourth-place run took 111 points of Johnson's lead, leaving him 73 points behind Johnson as the 50-year-old chases his first Cup series title.
That deficit's been made up before, back in 1992, when Alan Kulwicki was 85 points out of the lead with two races remaining. Kulwicki was also third in the standings, behind Bill Elliott and Davey Allison.
Trivia break! Who is the only other driver, besides Kulwicki, to make up a deficit with two races remaining in the season?
Make mine a triple
As was reported throughout the weekend, Kyle Busch was trying to become the first driver in NASCAR history to win the Camping World Truck, Nationwide and Sprint Cup series races in a single weekend, coming up a few gallons short.
This was the third time Busch had won the Trucks and Nationwide races in a weekend and gone on to go for the triple in the Cup series. What makes it more amazing is that he's the only driver to have won those first two races and even had an opportunity for the triple. Stranger still, was this was his worst finish when going for it.
Here are Busch's Cup results after winning the Truck and Nationwide races in the same weekend:
Year -- Track -- Finish
2009 -- Texas -- 11th
2009 -- California -- third
2007 -- Phoenix -- eighth
Trivia break! Busch didn't do it this weekend, but three previous times he's had a top-5 finish in all three series in a weekend. Who's the only other driver to do it even once?
Missed It by that much
Lost in all the fun of fuel mileage and the newfound points chase Sunday at Texas was a fun little nugget: Only six cars finished on the lead lap, and Kurt Busch won by more than 25 seconds.
If you think that seems like a lot, you'd be correct. Even though the margin of victory was greatly assisted by fuel mileage, according to NASCAR's Sultan of Stats Mike Forde, it's still the biggest since NASCAR began doing electronic scoring back in May 1993, besting the previous record of 22 seconds and change back at Dover in 1999. In that race, Bobby Labonte beat Jeff Gordon, and they were the only cars on the lead lap.
Trivia break! Kurt Busch became the 33rd driver to win 20 career Cup races, and he's now tied for 32nd on the all-time list with what driver?
Trivia break answers
1. In 1990, Dale Earnhardt trailed Mark Martin by 45 points and came back to win the title. The irony's noted.
2. Terry Labonte is the only other driver to get a top-5 in all three series in a weekend, at Richmond in 1995.
3. Busch tied one of NASCAR's earliest stars, Speedy Thompson, with his 20th win.
No, you're not reading an old blog entry. I just noticed something interesting over at www.racing-reference.info. It turns out that Johnson rallying to a top-10 finish and Tony Stewart getting swept up in the wreck that'll be known as "Ryan Newman's Wild Ride, Part II" (click here for Part I) would've been enough to give Johnson a slim, seven-point lead over Smoke under the old-school points system.
This is the second straight season in which the "classic" points system would've been more exciting than the Chase points race. Last year, Carl Edwards would've edged Jimmie Johnson by a 16-point margin, highlighted by a victory in the season finale at Homestead.
Disclaimer No. 1: I'm well aware that things might've happened far differently had there not been a Chase points system. Jimmie and Chad would've thrown the switch well before the final 10 races. But, let's just play the alternate realities game, because it's fun. I'm all about fun.
Disclaimer No. 2: Despite my remarks about how much closer the points system would've been under the Jurassic system, I still prefer the Chase, and I'll tell you why.
We need to reward the drivers who are running well at the end of the season, and we can't go overboard rewarding the drivers who caught fire midseason. In other sports, we don't really care who was at their finest in the middle of the season, when the pressure's not really on. I like my champion to be the team that figured it all out at season's end, and went out and proclaimed its authority over the field.
Over the past few weeks, I've been asked how we can even out the points and make it so the same guy doesn't seemingly win every season. I say, why do we need to?
I want to find the best team (driver, crew chief, pit crew, engine shop, etc.) at the end of the season, and it seems to one well-liked blogger that the team over the last four seasons has been the 48 Lowe's Chevrolet.
But there are still three more races to enjoy this season, and here's what I'm looking at:
Sweet Texas tea
At this point last year, you would've called me nuts had I told you that 33 races into the 2009 season, Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray would be the only Roush Fenway drivers to win a race. I would've sounded like nuts, but I would've been correct.
And although it's a new year for the RFR team, it is heading to one of its best tracks, Texas Motor Speedway. It's won there a whopping seven times, while no other team has won there more than thrice, that being Hendrick Motorsports.
Take a look at the loop-data ranks at TMS since 2005 for three notable Roush Fenway drivers:
Matt Kenseth
Average position: second
Fastest laps: sixth
Green-flag speed: third
Speed in traffic: second
Carl Edwards
Average position: fifth
Fastest laps: second
Green-flag speed: fifth
Speed in traffic: third
Greg Biffle
Average position: 14th
Fastest laps: first
Green-flag speed: fourth
Speed in traffic: fourth
Chase domination
I really wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't give you a cool little statistical nugget about how good Jimmie Johnson has been, and trust me, there's no shortage of them.
This time, however, we're going to look at the Chase drivers who have laid down the fastest lap on the track so far in the seven Chase races. Of course Johnson's out in front, but look at the lead. LOOK AT IT!!!
(Shakes fist)
The highest percentage of fastest laps run among the 2009 Chase drivers:
Let me break out a couple of new names when I start talking about drivers to watch this weekend. One cursed, and one due.
When you look at quality passes at Texas over the past 4 1/2 seasons, two names jump out because they have such a dominating lead over the rest of the field. To summarize, quality passes are green-flag passes in the top 15, the best getting by the best in the field.
The most quality passes per race at TMS since 2005:
Juan Pablo Montoya, 41.6 Dale Earnhardt Jr., 41.4
Denny Hamlin, 36.0
Matt Kenseth, 35.0
Carl Edwards, 34.8
Yes, I'm going to take the driver who's due for a win. No, not that guy, I'm liking the No. 42 to get his second career win this weekend. Write it down, and enjoy the race!
As Randy LaJoie said on Sunday night's postrace edition of "NASCAR Now" ... it's over, print the T-shirts.
I wish I could get just a sip of that magical elixir Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are taking huge gulps of. With about 20 laps to go on Sunday at Talladega, I noticed that the points were suddenly getting a little more competitive with Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon racing for the win while Jimmie Johnson was in danger of losing the draft.
Then Johnson gets some fuel, since he's not risking much track position, enough to last him as cars in front of him ran out of fuel or had to pit to make it through the green-white-checkered finish. Then he gets a good restart, as he's apt to do, and suddenly they start wrecking behind him, including his two teammates and closest competitors in the points race. In fact, the last wreck took out Scott Speed, the driver running directly behind No. 48.
Golden horseshoes, rabbits' feet, four-leaf clovers. Jimmie Johnson laughs at your good-luck charms. The man must be living clean.
Although even I, the ultimate optimist, feel that we can now engrave "Jimmie Johnso" on the championship trophy, and you can start on the N. So, what are we racing for?
I'll tell you what, you race to win. Regardless of the points situation, there are 43 drivers out there every weekend who want to win. And some of them, like Jamie McMurray on Sunday, need a win to help them get a ride next year, or get some sponsorship assistance.
Let's not forget some of the old days of NASCAR, when drivers raced more for the race-to-race paycheck, and not so much for the season championship. Racing for wins, old-school style. Nice.
But for now, let's look back at the action from Talladega, since there was no shortage of it. Even in the early-race portion when the drivers got single file, you knew it wouldn't stay like that. It did give some of us a chance to unclench our jaws.
Out of the blue
Jimmie Johnson, as I mentioned earlier, gave us a glimmer of hope in the Chase when we got to 10 or so laps to go, and he was still at the tail end of the draft, looking for somebody to give him a push to the front.
The points crunched up, those of us looking for a little more action in the points got that look in their eyes ... and then this happened.
Jimmie Johnson's final 10 laps at Talladega
Lap 182 -- 25th
Lap 183 -- 29th
Lap 184 -- 22nd
Lap 185 -- 22nd
Lap 186 -- 21st
Lap 187 -- 16th
Lap 188 -- 11th
Lap 189 -- 9th
Lap 190 -- 6th
Lap 191 -- 6th
Yeah, that's a fine-line graph if you're into graphs. I enjoy a good graph, especially pie charts. Mmm ... pie.
Trivia break: Looking to mount a challenge next week at Texas, which driver has the best all-time average finish at Texas?
Unrestricted
Restrictor-plate races were never the strong suit over at Roush Fenway Racing, but hold that thought!
The team that gave you just two restrictor-plate race wins in their first 15 seasons in business was suddenly the only team to win multiple restrictor-plate races this season. Here's the full list of restrictor-plate wins for RFR.
Cup restrictor-plate wins for Roush Fenway Racing Year -- Driver -- Track
2009 -- Jamie McMurray -- Talladega
2009 -- Matt Kenseth -- Daytona
2007 -- Jamie McMurray -- Daytona
2003 -- Greg Biffle -- Daytona
1997 -- Mark Martin -- Talladega
1995 -- Mark Martin -- Talladega
That's right, McMurray, on his way out, tied for the team lead. RFR got its elusive Daytona 500 victory this year, and now there's only two active Cup Series tracks where the team's never won. That's Chicago and another prestigious track, Indianapolis.
Trivia break: Who had RFR's best finish at Indianapolis?
Loose ends
We're all about talking championships and wins at the Worldwide Leader, but you fans come to my blog looking for a little more, so I wanted to give some credit where it was due for Sunday's race.
First, a shoutout goes to Jeff Burton, for getting his first top-5 finish since Richmond back in May.
How about Michael Waltrip, with just a trio of races remaining before he cuts back to a part-time schedule? He equaled his season-best finish of seventh, coming in the Daytona 500.
Over to Brad Keselowski, who was eighth. This year in both the Cup and Nationwide series, he's finished first, eighth and ninth in three Talladega races.
And I love the underdogs. Bobby Labonte gave TRG Motorsports their first top-10 finish. Meanwhile, Robert Richardson Jr. gave Tommy Baldwin Racing its best all-time finish with an 18th in his first career Cup Series start.
Trivia break: There were 26 leaders in Sunday's race, tied for second-most all-time. What's the Cup Series record for leaders in a race?
Trivia break answers
(1)Jimmie Johnson has the best all-time average finish at Texas, with an 8.5 mark.
Today, you can all call me the Talladega Truther. I'm not wearing a cape, but I'm going to come to the aid of the helpless. Defend those without a voice. Stick up for the disenfranchised.
You can imagine somebody waving an American flag right now and maybe some bravery-inspiring music playing behind me. I really need to hire somebody to do that.
Anyways, I'm sticking up for Talladega today, and the drivers who race there. Leading up to Sunday's race, you're going to hear a lot of people talking about how it's a crapshoot and how just about any of the 43 drivers in the field can win the race.
And while it might be true that the field won't be more equal from 1 to 43 at any other track this season, I'm going to stand up for the skill involved in restrictor-plate racing. That at the end of the day, the cream is going to rise to the top and somebody will have to make a daring move to get a win.
While I won't guarantee that we won't have an upset winner, I will make a bold prediction and say that a familiar face will find Victory Lane on Sunday. And check my record with bold predictions, I'm doing pretty good.
If you're still doubting me, let me give a couple facts to back up what I'm throwing down.
First and foremost
I know what you're thinking. "Matt, you've got a rather short memory. Don't you remember what happened at Talladega earlier this season?"
Of course I do! They didn't give me a blog for nothing. I had to blackmail and extort my way to the top! Wait, is this really the top?
OK, Brad Keselowski did get his first career win (and he led a lap) earlier this season at Talladega. But even though he did so for Phoenix Racing, he had Hendrick support in getting that win.
And would you believe that over the last 20 seasons, Keselowski is just the second driver to get his first career Cup win at Talladega, joining Brian Vickers?
If you're looking for an upset, first-time winner, just turn to Charlotte or Daytona. We've had six first-time winners at each of those tracks over the last 20 seasons, including David Reutimann at Charlotte earlier this season. Or how about New Hampshire, where Joey Logano got his first win earlier in the season, bringing the total to five in that span.
Talladega truth!
Experience needed
My next Talladega point has to do with the winners at the track dating back to 2007. Those five race winners have a combined 218 career Cup series wins and 10 championships. That's including Keselowski's grand total of one Cup win. Winners in that time include Jeff Gordon (twice), Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch.
If that's not an impressive group of drivers, then I don't know what I'm doing here.
If you look at the last five race winners for all active Cup tracks, only one track totals more combined wins than Dega from those five winners, and that's Phoenix. Jimmie Johnson (three times), Mark Martin and Gordon have combined for 260 wins.
But that's enough Talladega truth. I've gotten my point across.
One for the road
If you came looking for a little loop data and maybe somebody to watch for Sunday afternoon, I don't want to turn you away empty-handed.
And so I turn you to last week's winner, Denny Hamlin. He's already mastered the shortest track on the circuit -- next, it might be time for the longest. Check out his ranks at Dega since 2005 among drivers who have made multiple starts:
Hamlin at Talladega
Driver rating, 94.8, first
Average position, 13.6, second
Laps led, 164, fourth
Quality passes per race, 213.6, seventh
FYI: Quality passes are green-flag passes inside the top 15.
That's all I have for you and my Junior Talladega Truthers this weekend. Enjoy the race!
Today, I'm going to hit you up with a little philosophy.
That's right, I'm a multi-threat like that.
Late in Sunday's race at Martinsville, we had Denny Hamlin leading, Jimmie Johnson second and Juan Pablo Montoya third. My question to you: If you were Mr. Montoya, would you have put a little chrome horn to Johnson to take away second and perhaps cut into the 48's points lead?
In a video game, I don't hesitate to use the bumper, but that's just in a video game. Awesome as they may be, it's still not real life. That's probably why the Super Mario Brothers don't answer my letters.
But, if I'm running Lap 499 at Martinsville, sitting within viewing distance of the points lead, that's a whole other story. I dig racing hard for the lead, but it might be hard to justify turning somebody for second place, even if it would make a huge points swing.
If you could, oh-so-gently, nudge your fellow competitor out of the way and casually take that position, would you? Maybe give them a little thank-you wave as you pass by; maybe that's OK. It's a fine line.
So I turn to you, my loyal reading audience. Step up to the plate and let us know what your take on the subject is. How hard are you willing to race for second or for points? Does it make any difference if it's Jimmie Johnson or any other driver? Bring it on by leaving a comment below or sending me an e-mail at ESPNMattWillis@yahoo.com.
The long and the short
Some drivers mentioned after the Martinsville race that all we'd talk about is how much Jimmie Johnson extended his lead on them with his runner-up run. So, in deference to them, I'm not even going to bring it up. Instead, let me clear the cabinet with a potpourri of Denny Hamlin notes.
First of all, we have to start considering Hamlin just as much of a Martinsville threat as Johnson. Hamlin now has seven straight finishes of sixth or better at Martinsville. In those seven races, Hamlin's won twice, while Johnson's won the other five.
Also, for the 2009 season, Hamlin led more than half of the total laps run at Martinsville. I crowned him a championship contender heading into the Chase, and some bad luck took him out of it. But let me take this chance to consider Hamlin a serious threat for the 2010 title.
Trivia break: Who were the only two drivers with a top-10 finish in all six short-track races this year?
Going streaking again
If you're a regular reader of the blog, then I owe you a big hug. If you're not, you don't know what you're missing out on. Seriously, what do you want from me? I'm doing the best I can.
Deep breath. Dry tears.
Anyway, I wrote last week that Johnson had 14 straight top-10 finishes at Martinsville, which was obviously extended to 15. That's tied for the third-longest streak ever at any track, behind only Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty, both of whom had 18 at North Wilkesboro.
Also, it's worth mentioning that Jeff Gordon extended his equally impressive streak of top-5 finishes at Martinsville to 10. Just another note to keep an eye on next spring.
Trivia break:Jimmie Johnson has the second-best average finish at Martinsville among drivers who have started there at least five times. Who's the best?
Point taken
Let's face it: Jimmie Johnson is good. Darn good. But is this his top Chase performance ever? Leave it to me, your friendly neighborhood researcher, to help you out. How else, but with a list!
Most Chase points through six races, all-time Season -- Driver -- Points
2009 -- Jimmie Johnson -- 1,068
2008 -- Jimmie Johnson -- 1,033*
2007 -- Jeff Gordon -- 1,015
2004 -- Kurt Busch -- 995*
2007 -- Jimmie Johnson -- 942*
* Went on to win championship
Of course, Gordon in 2007 didn't go on to win the championship, but so far, a 3.0 average finish would easily put Johnson atop the list of best Chase performances and would set a tough mark to beat.
Trivia break: In NASCAR's modern era, what was the biggest points deficit made up with four races to go?
My beloved readers, it is I. And forgive me if I'm getting a little emotional -- it is that time of year.
Yes, Sunday is the last short-track race of the year, at Martinsville Speedway, and that will be followed by the final restrictor-plate race of the season, at Talladega. Hopefully we get as good a finish as in the spring, just not as dangerous.
Not that I have anything against regular speedway racing, but I'm all about the beating, banging and close quarters, as well as 43 cars separated by a second while hitting 190 mph. It's just my thing. Ask my friends and family what my thing is, and they'll tell you that -- or just start staring at you blankly.
The important question, of course, is how did you get in touch with my friends and family?
Anyway, I like a nice balance in my schedule, and restrictor-plate and short-track races are like potato chips and ice cream. I love them, but it's probably not a good idea to have just them. However, right now, I think I'll take a short snack break.
Oh, yeah, and it's also not a good idea to mix them, as was evidenced by the race at New Hampshire that featured restrictor plates. New Hampshire isn't technically a short track, but at a mile in length, it's the right length to prove my point.
And, by the way, I'm always open to sponsorship possibilities from snack food companies. Let's just move on …
Perfect 10
Jimmie Johnson has a little streak of 14 straight top-10 finishes at Martinsville. After finishing 35th there in his debut, Johnson finished sixth and ninth, then pulled off a little run of 11 top-5 finishes in 12 races.
That's a record for the most consecutive top-10 finishes at Martinsville. With another on Sunday, Johnson will become the sixth driver to have a run of 15 or more top-10 finishes in a row at a track. The list, courtesy of none other than Mike Forde, NASCAR's Sultan of Stats:
Most consecutive top-10 finishes at a track Dale Earnhardt, 18, North Wilkesboro Richard Petty, 18, North Wilkesboro
Dale Earnhardt, 15, Richmond Benny Parsons, 15, Bristol Richard Petty, 15, Dover
Jimmie Johnson, 14, Martinsville
Eight others, 14
The good and the bad
There will be no ugly in my column today. We're all about the beauty here. I mean, just check out the layout and font. Breathtaking!
Going back to my loop-data roots, there are some Chasers who thrive at Martinsville and others who dread this date coming up on the calendar. Well, what else to do but look at the numbers?
Among the good -- in terms of driver rating, this is Jimmie Johnson's and Jeff Gordon's best track (more on one of those drivers shortly). It's also Tony Stewart's and Denny Hamlin's third-best track.
Moving to the other side, this is Carl Edwards' third-worst track and Kurt Busch's fourth-worst. And let's give a quick shout to Greg Biffle -- this is statistically his worst track.
The other Hendrick guy
Hendrick driver, multiple Martinsville winner, championship threat. Must be Jimmie Johnson, right?
WRONG! THAT'S WRONG!
Nah, allow me to gush about Jeff Gordon right now.
Although his teammate Johnson has gotten the headlines with the wins on the paper clip, Gordon has had his fair share of success, too. Don't forget that Gordon has won at Martinsville seven times and is on a track-record run of nine straight top-5 finishes.
Leafing through the loop data, we also find that over the past five seasons, nobody has a better average green-flag speed at Martinsville than Gordon. He also has a series-best average position of 6.3 and has been the fastest driver on a lap more often than anybody else.
So while everybody is doing the trendy move of picking the 48, tell them that you like the 24 a little better, and you have proof.
In addition to being a fan of the more traditional sports, I'm also a big poker fan.
Try to control your disbelief. Yes, a guy who makes a living dealing with statistics and other numbers also enjoys a game based largely around odds and strategy.
Well, the biggest event of the poker year is the World Series of Poker, and the main event final table decides who will win millions upon millions of dollars. Money usually reserved for ESPN.com bloggers, right? Anyone? Bueller?
The only problem is that the final table is taped and edited down to fit into a reasonable amount of time for TV. So, working at the Worldwide Leader, it's hard not to find out who wins unless you go out of your way to sequester yourself that day.
Now with a 90-point lead in the Chase, Jimmie Johnson is another ultimate spoiler. It's obvious he's the best in the sport right now, but he doesn't have to shove it in our faces. It seems obvious that he's going to win the title now, although some of us (me) hold out hope that Talladega or any other race could still shake up the standings. It's not that I'm rooting against him, I'm just looking for it to be a little tighter.
So this is what Johnson's become. He's the guy who tells you the ending of the movie while you're standing in line. He tells you what you're getting for Christmas at Thanksgiving dinner.
Or maybe he won't win, odder things have happened. But this blog is going to give Johnson his due.
Patriot games
For the sake of this section, Jimmie Johnson will be playing the role of Tom Brady, and standing in for Bill Belichick is Chad Knaus.
If you followed along with the NFL action on Sunday, you probably noticed that the New England Patriots led the Titans 45-0 at halftime. New England wasn't the only team to wrap up a great first half over the weekend. Jimmie Johnson has amassed 893 points in the first five races of the Chase, the most in Chase history.
Of course, Gordon didn't go on to win the championship that year, but Johnson's 90-point lead is the biggest at this point of the Chase in the six seasons of the Chase's existence.
Trivia break: Who held the previous record for biggest Chase lead after five races?
Follow the leader
Jimmie Johnson's now led 16 straight races at Charlotte, but it's not like we're going somewhere where he's even better.
Wait, what's that? Johnson's won five of the last six races at Martinsville? Oh, snap.
Well, let's take this middle section to take a big-picture look at the man in the 48. Johnson got his 46th career win at Charlotte on Saturday night, and he draws ever closer to joining that elite group of drivers who've won 50 races.
The 46 wins ties Buck Baker for 13th on the all-time list. The big difference there is Johnson got his 46th win in his 286th start just after turning 34.
Baker got win number 46 in his 502nd start at the age of 45.
Trivia break: Who's next up for Johnson on the all-time wins list, ranking 12th all-time with 48 wins?
The next week at Rockingham, Gordon was again a winner. Craven finished fifth and Labonte seventh, giving Hendrick the top three drivers in points. By the way, who else misses Rockingham?
That, after the second race of the 1997 season, was the last time three drivers from the same team held the top three spots in the Cup Series points. That is, until Saturday night.
Yes, 450 races later, it's Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon occupying the top three spots in the standings, giving Hendrick another trifecta.
Trivia break: Who was the last set of teammates to finish a season ranked first and second in points?
Trivia break answers
1) You don't have to go back too far. Jimmie Johnson led last year's Chase standings by 69 points after five races.
2) Next up is 1951 and '53 Cup Series champion Herb Thomas, with 48 wins. That might just be enough for two weeks.
3) Don't strain yourself thinking. It was just two years ago when Jimmie Johnson won the title over Jeff Gordon.
Matt Willis has been a researcher with the ESPN Stats & Information Group since 2006, working on "NASCAR Now" and "SportsCenter," among other shows.
He graduated from Ithaca College in 2006 with a degree in journalism. While there, he worked on ICTV on shows such as "Ya Think You Know Sports?" and "Sports Final."
He also was a member of the IC Comedy Club and figures about half the jokes he makes in his column are funny.
You can reach Matt at ESPNMattWillis@yahoo.com for any NASCAR-related questions or comments. Or, if you just want to talk. It never hurts to have an extra friend.
Matt Willis
