ESPN Commentary

OAKMONT, Pa. -- The three people on the planet who don't think Tiger Woods will win this U.S. Open -- Aaron Baddeley's wife and caddie, and maybe a stray Paul Casey fan -- are clinging to one statistical reed of hope:

The Big Feline has never come from behind in the final round to win any of his 12 major championships.

That's what the record book says -- that Woods is not the comeback kid, that he only wins from ahead, that he needs a Sunday lead to take home the hardware.

The record book lies.

Flash back to the 2000 PGA Championship at Valhalla. Yeah, it's technically true that Woods was the 54-hole leader by a stroke -- but he was behind after the first hole and spent the rest of the afternoon chasing Bob May. He rallied under severe duress to force a playoff and win in extra holes.

Or you could flash back to his U.S. Amateur triumphs, in 1994 and '96. Woods was six holes down in '94 before rallying to win, and was five down in '96 -- including two down with three to play.

So don't tell me the guy doesn't have it in his DNA to rally in a tight spot. And given the way Woods relishes a challenge, I'm betting he spent Saturday night pleased that he trails Baddeley by two shots -- because this sets him up to wipe out what might be the only criticism remaining.

Woods' job Sunday is to overhaul a guy with two PGA Tour victories and hold off a group of followers that lacks any kind of track record in majors. Of the final six players on the course, one has a dozen majors and the other five have a combined bagel. Jim Furyk (two shots back of Woods), David Toms (three back) and Vijay Singh (four back) are the only guys owning major championship chops within hailing distance.

"They're going to deal with emotions they've probably never dealt with before," Woods said, laying the pressure on his peers. "It helps to have been there before. I've been there, so I know what it takes."

Baddeley, for one, has not been there before -- and I'm just not sensing Sunday greatness from a guy who devotes 26 paragraphs on his website, Badds.com, to his dog, Brutus. (And, it should be noted, makes no mention of his wife, Richelle. Explain, Aaron?)

Brutus isn't going to help Baddeley deal with playing in the final pairing with Goliath. That means the pressure will be squarely on the leader, not the follower.

"I'm going to enjoy it," Baddeley said.

We'll check back with him on that Sunday evening.

Know this: Baddeley will be trying to stay cool on a front nine that Woods has played five shots better. The flip side is that Baddeley has been seven shots superior to Tiger on the back side, but I can think of easier players to come from behind against in the final holes of a major.

Fact is, playing with an in-contention Tiger on Sunday is an invitation to flash-fried on national television. Ask Sergio Garcia and Luke Donald last year in the British Open and PGA, respectively. Whether it's the mano-a-mano pressure, the massive gallery or the mass of media following your every move, the one place you don't want to be is paired with Woods at crunch time.

If you're a relative no-name taking a shot at Tiger, best to avoid direct confrontation -- try ambushing him from a different pairing. Zach Johnson got him that way in the Masters in April. Michael Campbell got him that way in the '05 U.S. Open. Rich Beem got him that way in the '02 PGA.

But it will take a regression in form from Woods for a Stephen Ames, a Justin Rose, a Bubba Watson or anyone else to catch him from behind. Because Tiger was far and away the best player on the course Saturday. If he carries the same masterpiece swing over to Sunday, he'll win by five shots.

Woods' 69 was golf at both its finest and most frustrating.

Tiger smart-bombed Oakmont's slick greens, hitting 17 straight in regulation before missing the last one. His irons were dialed in like this was Pebble Beach 2000, one of the great shot-making displays in golf history. He sculpted cuts, fades, draws and stingers wherever he wanted them, giving himself one birdie chance after another.

And then he couldn't get a putt to drop.

The distance between a stellar 69 and a hello-Johnny-Miller 63 was roughly three feet. It was a couple of inches on a putt here, a few inches on a putt there, a single roll of the ball over there, and then the couple of feet by which Woods' tee shot rolled off the par-4 17th green.

That's the confounding nature of golf on a really hard course. You can be brilliant from tee to green -- and even pretty good on the greens -- and still only pick up a single stroke on par. The margin is that slim here this week.

"He played awesome," said Saturday partner Nick Dougherty, whose putter kept his 74 from being a 78. "If he'd putted the way I did, he would have shot six under. He played far better than 69. He played 66 to me.

"He's going to be very hard to beat tomorrow."

Dougherty is right. But those still in contention did some whistling past the graveyard Saturday.

"I don't think he's going to do it again tomorrow," Ames said of Woods' 17-of-18 greens masterpiece.

Perhaps not. He might only hit 16. The guy does lead the tournament in greens in regulation.

The other thing Woods leads the tournament in is disaster avoidance. He doesn't have a single double bogey through 54 holes, and only six other players can say that -- none of them in the final three pairings.

This Open is living proof of the old Harvey Penick aphorism: It's not how good are your good shots, it's how bad are your bad shots?

Truly bad shots -- or bad shots compounded by other bad shots -- will kill a round at Oakmont. Ask Bubba Watson, whose triple bogey on No. 9 threw a jar of Ragu sauce on an otherwise solid round.

"One bad swing is all it takes," Watson said.

That was all it took for Woods to record his only bogey of the day, on No. 18. He cut a driver off the tee and it landed in a fairway bunker, and Woods couldn't get home in three from there on what's been the hardest hole all week.

"I was pissed," Tiger said with a shark's smile. "What, be happy with a five?"

That five, combined with Baddeley's three on No. 18, did deliver one bonus for Woods: it gives him the opportunity to win his first major from behind on Sunday. Phony stat or not, it's all the motivation Tiger needs.

Pat Forde is a national columnist for ESPN.com. He can be reached at ESPN4D@aol.com.