PLANNING TO PICK YOUR TEAM ON STATS ALONE? THAT'S JUST NUTS
Stop. Think. Do you really want to do this? Do you really want to play fantasy baseball?And then: do you really want to win? Because, take it from one who's been studying the walk-to-strikeout ratios of backup catchers for 17 years, fantasy baseball can make you crazy. Say it with me now: Someday Todd Hundley will hit 25 again. Someday Kris Benson will win 20. Someday I will get a tan.
March 2001: I truly believed Jose Mesa could keep his ERA below 5, maybe close a few games for the Phils along the way. All he did was get 87 saves for me in two years. Crazy.
That same spring, the Rangers made Tim Crabtree their closer. Remember? Best reliever out of Michigan State since Mike Marshall. Everyone drafted him ahead of Mesa. He saved four, had a WHIP of over 2. Crazy.
May 2003: the guy in first place cut David Ortiz for Ty Wigginton. Why not? Ortiz had done nothing in April. After obsessively checking the waiver wire, day after day, I took a shot. Ortiz bashed 21 homers after the break. I became the guy in first place. Crazy.
Are you up for it? Good. Our player rankings, based on the 5-by-5 games offered by ESPN.com (the traditional eight roto categories, plus runs scored for hitters and strikeouts for pitchers), should silence the voices in your head, at least for a little while. We rank the players by past performance, while also spotlighting guys we think are on the verge of breakouts or breakdowns.
Check the site for updates as often as you like. But beware: it's enough to make anyone crazy.
FIRST BASEMEN
Big dudes with big bats and big power numbers. That's what 1B
is all about. If you end up with J.T. Snow, start thinking 2005.
1 TODD HELTON, COL
2 JIM THOME, PHI
3 JASON GIAMBI, NYY
Talk all you want about his 41 HRs and the protection he'll get in the lineup, but this is a player with serious flaws. In the past three seasons, his BA has tumbled nearly 100 points, while his strikeouts have soared from 83 to 140. Throw out June, and he hit .228 last season. Ouch.
4 CARLOS DELGADO, TOR
5 RICHIE SEXSON, ARI
6 JEFF BAGWELL, HOU
Look past last season's 39 HRs and you'll see age catching up with him in declining BA and walks. His homers are next.
7 DERREK LEE, CHC
Coming off career highs in OBP (.379) and SLG (.508), he looked set for a big year even before being traded to the Cubs. The picture's even brighter now.Lee conked 51 dingers on the road the past three years, just 28 at spacious Pro Player. Hello, Wrigley! Don't bank on the SB bonus (40 the past two years). Doesn't matter. Hitting behind Sammy and Moises practically guarantees 100 RBIs.
8 MARK TEIXEIRA, TEX
Some growing pains as a rookie (a 3:1K-to-BB ratio), but if the power numbers (26/84) up-tick by 10 or so, we'll cut him some slack in the fundamentals department.
9 PHIL NEVIN, SD
10 FRANK THOMAS, CHW
You can do what Ozzie Guillen can't:avoid the Big Hurt. Think the 36-year-old will launch 42 rockets again? Neither do we.
11 MIKE SWEENEY, KC
12 DAVID ORTIZ, BOS
13 RAFAEL PALMEIRO, BAL
14 RYAN KLESKO, SD
The deepest point in San Diego's new Petco Park is right-centerfield (411 feet), so it promises to be tough on lefty pull hitters. Coming off his least productive fantasy season since 1998, he may slip to the late rounds in many drafts. Let him. Those 20-plus-SB seasons are fading memories too, and his injuries and inability to hit lefties will earn him too many days off. That adds up to just another 20-HR, 80-RBI guy. Zzzzz.
15 KEVIN MILLAR, BOS
16 NICK JOHNSON, MON
Now that he won't be shuffled in and out of the lineup like he was in New York, we'll find out how high his ceiling is.
17 SHEA HILLENBRAND, ARI
18 EDGAR MARTINEZ, SEA
19 PAUL KONERKO, CHW
20 ERUBIEL DURAZO, OAK
21 JASON PHILLIPS, NYM
22 JOSH PHELPS, TOR
Batting behind Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells, he has 30-HR, 80-RBI potential-if he can cut his K's.
23 BRAD FULLMER, TEX
Starting DH nod means he could put up HR numbers.
24 SEAN CASEY, CIN
25 JOHN OLERUD, SEA
26 SCOTT SPIEZIO, SEA
27 JEFF CONINE, FLA
At age 37, chances are Mr. Marlin won't play 149 games again. Or hit 20 HRs. Or drive in 95 runs.
28 CARLOS PENA, DET
29 TINO MARTINEZ, TB
30 DOUG MIENTKIEWICZ, MIN
HOLD 'EM 1. MARK TEIXEIRA, TEX 2. JUSTIN MORNEAU, MIN 3. PRINCE FIELDER, MIL 4. HEE SEOP CHOI, FLA 5. CASEY KOTCHMAN, ANA
SECOND BASEMEN
Thou Shalt Not Do Harm to My BA. That used to be the best you
could hope for from most 2B options. Times sure have changed.
1 ALFONSO SORIANO, TEX
2 BRET BOONE, SEA
3 JEFF KENT, HOU
4 LUIS CASTILLO, FLA
Not so long ago, he owned the patch of dirt between first and second: a combined 112 SBs in 1999-2000. The odds of him swiping a base these days are only slightly better than your chance of calling a coin flip: 21 steals last season (fewest since 1998), 19 CS. Only 14 came in the 117 games Castillo played after Jack McKeon took over, so the notion that he'll bounce back to 50 is pure fantasy. He's never hit more than 6 HRs or driven in more than 45, and he's scored 100 runs just once in his career. Now he's losing his fantasy All Access card: speed.
5 JOSE VIDRO, MON
Don't worry about the impact of Vlad's departure. Vidro hit .313 with six jacks in June and July, when Guerrero hardly played, and will get lineup support from Nick Johnson and Carl Everett.
6 MARCUS GILES, ATL
Last season's power surge was no fluke. Sheff's gone, but Giles will still see plenty of good pitches with Chipper and Andruw Jones behind him.
7 MICHAEL YOUNG, TEX
8 RAY DURHAM, SF
Injuries snuffed the usual .280/15/25 line fantasy owners could take to the bank. Healthy and hitting in front of Bonds, he'll rebound.
9 PLACIDO POLANCO, PHI
10 JUNIOR SPIVEY, MIL
11 ADAM KENNEDY, ANA
12 JERRY HAIRSTON JR., BAL
If he beats out Brian Roberts, you'll get 30 SBs.
13 ROBERTO ALOMAR, ARI
The past few years, he tanked worse than Joe Millionaire 2. But we sense some good karma in the desert air. Alomar handpicked the D-Backs, taking less money to join buddy Carlos Baerga. And during the off-season, he practically lived at the Athletes Performance facility in Tempe, the training center that helped unleash Toronto's Vernon Wells in 2003. Don't expect a return to prime time for him at 36, but hitting ahead of Luis Gonzalez and Richie Sexson, a .280/10 year with 20 SBs and 100 runs seems within Robbie's reach.
14 MARK LORETTA, SD
15 D'ANGELO JIMENEZ, CIN
Slated to lead off for Reds after solid 290-AB 2003 preview: .290, 7 HRs, 7 SBs.
16 LUIS RIVAS, MIN
17 TODD WALKER, CHC
Want to make a fantasy owner cringe? Just say the word "platoon," which Walker may do this season with Mark Grudzielanek.
18 ORLANDO HUDSON, TOR
Steady enough in 2003 for us to believe that, at 26, he'll reach his 15/15 potential this season.
19 MARK GRUDZIELANEK, CHC
20 DESI RELAFORD, KC
Another victim of sharing. He must make room for Tony Graffanino this year.
21 MARLON ANDERSON, STL
22 AARON MILES, COL
23 FERNANDO VINA, DET
24 ERIC YOUNG, TEX
25 RON BELLIARD, CLE
26 BRIAN ROBERTS, BAL
27 MARK DEROSA, ATL
28 MARK ELLIS, OAK
29 POKEY REESE, BOS
30 CARLOS FEBLES, BOS
HOLD 'EM 1. RICKIE WEEKS, MIL 2. JOSE REYES, NYM 3. SCOTT HAIRSTON, ARI 4. CHASE UTLEY, PHI 5. FREDDY SANCHEZ, PIT
SHORTSTOPS
Sorry, A-Rod's not eligible at 3B until he plays five games there.
So you have the same decision as the Yanks: A-Rod or Jeter.
1 ALEX RODRIGUEZ, NYY
2 NOMAR GARCIAPARRA, BOS
3 MIGUEL TEJADA, BAL
Think he shed any tears on his way out of Oakland? Look at his .265 BA at home over the past three seasons and think again. The fact that he hit 39 points better on the road bodes well for the Orioles and, more important, for you. So does his .339 average last year vs. non-Baltimore AL East pitching. And while you can argue that 2003 was a down year for the former MVP, a .326 BAafter the break suggests he'll provide the O's with plenty of O.
4 EDGAR RENTERIA, STL
Renteria stole nearly twice as many bases (34) as the three other shortstops who drove in 100 runs in 2003.
5 DEREK JETER, NYY
How does a pitcher avoid feeding him fastballs with A-Rod on deck, Giambi in the hole and Sheff grabbing a bat?
6 RAFAEL FURCAL, ATL
His 15 HRs last season may have been a fluke; he hit only two after the break. And scoring 130 runs again will be tough without Sheff and Javy.
7 KAZUO MATSUI, NYM
8 ORLANDO CABRERA, MON
9 ANGEL BERROA, KC
His ROY-al season included 17 HRs and 21 SBs. Expect Berroa to continue ascending toward the 30/30 club.
10 JOSE REYES, NYM
11 JIMMY ROLLINS, PHI
He's always produced mediocre fantasy stats, with the exception of SBs. But his steals dropped to 20 in 2003.
12 RICH AURILIA, SEA
Perhaps only Brady Anderson can claim a more dramatic statistical spike than Aurilia's .324/37 for the Giants in 2001. Not before or since has he had a season line within 40 points or 14 homers of that magical year. What does that mean for you? It means that no way is he going to pull off a flashback of 2001, particularly in his new home. Once upon a time, another Mariners SS didn't care for Safeco Field. Fellow by the name of Rodriguez. Wonder whatever became of him?
13 ALEX CINTRON, ARI
Most rookies are marred by inconsistency. Not him: .300 before the break, .331 after. No wonder the D-Backs may put him in the five hole.
14 JOSE VALENTIN, CHW
15 BOBBY CROSBY, OAK
16 CRISTIAN GUZMAN, MIN
17 DAVID ECKSTEIN, ANA
After a disappointing season (.252, 3 HRs, 31 RBIs, 16 SBs), he'll have to earn the starting job in camp.
18 JULIO LUGO, TB
19 CARLOS GUILLEN, DET
20 BARRY LARKIN, CIN
21 KHALIL GREENE, SD
22 OMAR VIZQUEL, CLE
23 ALEX GONZALEZ, FLA
Hit .288 before the break, .208 after. Keep that in mind if he gets off to a fast start.
24 ALEX GONZALEZ, CHC
25 ROYCE CLAYTON, COL
Coors can coax a .260 BA and 15 HRs. If he swipes 15 bags, he'll be a steal.
26 DEIVI CRUZ, TB
27 CHRIS WOODWARD, TOR
28 ADAM EVERETT, HOU
29 RAMON VAZQUEZ, SD
30 TONY WOMACK, BOS
HOLD 'EM 1. BOBBY CROSBY, OAK 2. B.J. UPTON, TB 3. KHALIL GREENE, SD 4. J.J. HARDY, MIL 5. JOSELOPEZ, SEA
THIRD BASEMEN
If you leave the draft with a 3B from the bottom two-thirds of this
list, you go into the season with an 0-1 count. Just so you know.
1 SCOTT ROLEN, STL
2 ERIC CHAVEZ, OAK
Only 26. History,
according to Bill James, tells us now's the time to pounce.
3 MIKE LOWELL, FLA
His 32 jacks were a pleasant surprise last season, but he had only four in 139 at-bats after the break.
4 HANK BLALOCK, TEX
5 MORGAN ENSBERG, HOU
Hear us now and believe us in August: Ensberg could be the best 3B in the fantasy game this season. He draws walks and hits both lefties and righties well. Better yet, the Astros finally wised up and let Geoff Blum take his utility skills to Tampa Bay. That means Jimy Williams can't platoon Ensberg this year, as he did so inexplicably in 2003. A peas-and-carrots fit at Minute Maid Park (.351 with 16 HRs), Ensberg could join the 30/100 club if he gets 500 ABs. A midround steal. (Shh! Don't pass it on.)
6 TROY GLAUS, ANA
Hard to swallow that .248 average, especially when his power gauge hasn't read 40 since 2001.
7 ARAMIS RAMIREZ, CHC
8 COREY KOSKIE, MIN
He may never repeat his 26 HRs and 27 SBs of 2001, but Minnesota's power- starved offense ensures that he'll hit in the middle of the lineup, with all the RBI opportunities that entails. Take the consistency.
9 ERIC HINSKE, TOR
A broken hand turned his homers into doubles last season. Look for 25 jacks this year, plus 15 steals.
10 JOE CREDE, CHW
He'd hit 30 homers if he could ever get on track before August. With 800 ABs under his belt, it's about time.
11 BILL MUELLER, BOS
Why will the AL batting champ's numbers decline in 2004? Simple. Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation. Don't expect the nine- year vet to repeat a .326, 19-HR campaign when he'd never before batted .300 or hit more than 10 HRs in a full season. Granted, Boston has the kind of lineup that might make even Pokey Reese an All-Star fantasy performer, but you'd be wise to project Mueller to hit .290 with 15 HRs and draft accordingly.
12 VINNY CASTILLA, COL
He went .300/40/100 for the Rockies three times in the late 1990s.
13 TONY BATISTA, MON
The homers are nice, but can you stomach a .235 BA in 600 ABs? Didn't think so.
14 EDGARDO ALFONZO, SF
15 SEAN BURROUGHS, SD
16 JOE RANDA, KC
17 CASEY BLAKE, CLE
18 TY WIGGINTON, NYM
A .236 BA in the second half, not to mention an overall .239 BA vs. righthanders, should convince you to move on.
19 WES HELMS, MIL
20 ERIC MUNSON, DET
21 ADRIAN BELTRE, LA
22 DAVID BELL, PHI
23 ROBIN VENTURA, LA
24 CHRIS STYNES, PIT
25 GEOFF BLUM, TB
26 BRANDON LARSON, CIN
27 PEDRO FELIZ, SF
28 MARK BELLHORN, BOS
29 JEFF CIRILLO, SD
30 FREDDY SANCHEZ, PIT
HOLD 'EM 1. CHAD TRACY, ARI 2. ANDY MARTE, ATL 3. KEVIN YOUKILIS, BOS 4. GARRETT ATKINS, COL 5. COREY HART, MIL
OUTFIELDERS
So many big names. So many temptations. So gobble up middle IF studs in the early rounds. Save OF bargains for dessert.
1 ALBERT PUJOLS, STL
2 VLADIMIR GUERRERO, ANA
3 CARLOS BELTRAN, KC
Still looking for 30/30. But it's his walk year. He may end up outproducing Vlad.
4 BARRY BONDS, SF
5 MANNY RAMIREZ, BOS
6 MAGGLIO ORDONEZ, CHW
7 GARY SHEFFIELD, NYY
8 ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA
9 PRESTON WILSON, COL
10 SAMMY SOSA, CHC
Nothing wrong with another 40-HR season, but he's not the same guy who hit 60 three times and batted .320.
11 BRIAN GILES, SD
If 2003 is as bad as it gets, we should all be big fans of Marcus Giles' big bro. After years with no help in Pittsburgh, he's now hitting alongside Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin. Recovered from the sprained MCL that held him to 88 RBIs in 2003 (his lowest total since 1998), he's good for 110-plus. Warning: homers may be harder to come by in lefty-proof new Petco Park.
12 VERNON WELLS, TOR
13 JUAN PIERRE, FLA
14 LANCE BERKMAN, HOU
With all eyes on the pitching staff and nagging injuries behind him, he'll bounce back to 40/120.
15 BOBBY ABREU, PHI
16 CARL CRAWFORD, TB
17 AUBREY HUFF, TB
One of the best young hitters nobody knows. Eligible at 1B and 3B, too. A 40-HR season is possible-soon.
18 GARRET ANDERSON, ANA
19 CHIPPER JONES, ATL
20 CARLOS LEE, CHW
21 ANDRUW JONES, ATL
22 MIGUEL CABRERA, FLA
23 LUIS GONZALEZ, ARI
You go 57/142 (2001), you figure on coming back to earth. He did: 28/103, 26/104 the past two years. Not bad for a 36-year-old with a bum elbow, but not likely to get any better.
24 SCOTT PODSEDNIK, MIL
25 JOHNNY DAMON, BOS
26 RICHARD HIDALGO, HOU
Most valuable in Minute Maid Park. Be advised: the Astros would love to dump his big salary.
27 ROCCO BALDELLI, TB
28 JIM EDMONDS, STL
29 SHAWN GREEN, LA
30 RANDY WINN, SEA
31 TROT NIXON, BOS
32 JEROMY BURNITZ, COL
Fly ball hitter goes to heaven, i.e., Coors. Forty HRs? Sure. .235? If you're lucky.
33 JUAN GONZALEZ, KC
34 AUSTIN KEARNS, CIN
35 DMITRI YOUNG, DET
36 HIDEKI MATSUI, NYY
37 MILTON BRADLEY, CLE
38 SHANNON STEWART, MIN
So he hits .300 and scores 100 runs. Here in Fantasyland, he's overrated. Yes, he once swiped 51 bags, but that was in 1998. The past two years, recurring minor injuries held him to 18 steals total. Do yourself a favor and take him where he belongs: in the later rounds.
39 CARL EVERETT, MON
40 LARRY WALKER, COL
41 TORII HUNTER, MIN
42 COREY PATTERSON, CHC
43 MELVIN MORA, BAL
44 MIKE CAMERON, NYM
45 KENNY LOFTON, NYY
46 KEN GRIFFEY JR., CIN
47 GEOFF JENKINS, MIL
48 REGGIE SANDERS, STL
49 ALEX SANCHEZ, DET
50 JACQUE JONES, MIN
51 RAUL MONDESI, PIT
52 BRAD WILKERSON, MON
53 CLIFF FLOYD, NYM
54 PAT BURRELL, PHI
The biggest bust of 2003 has far too much talent to hit .209 with 21 HRs again. Steal him.
55 J.D. DREW, ATL
56 MARLON BYRD, PHI
57 BERNIE WILLIAMS, NYY
58 JAY GIBBONS, BAL
59 ADAM DUNN, CIN
60 DARIN ERSTAD, ANA
HOLD 'EM 1. MIGUEL CABRERA, FLA 2. ALEXIS RIOS, TOR 3. GRADY SIZEMORE, CLE 4. JEREMY REED, CHW 5. JASON BAY, PIT
CATCHERS
Our top five guys are all on the wrong side of 30. At a position where today's star is tomorrow's Todd Hundley, that's scary.
1 JORGE POSADA, NYY
Count on 25 HRs, 95 RBIs, or your money back. (Offer not valid in the Bronx.)
2 MIKE PIAZZA, NYM
If healthy, he could still give you plenty of pop. But the guy's 35, he played just 68 games last season and he hasn't come within 18 points of his career average (.319) since 2000. Adjusting to first base figures to be a snap. Adjusting to middle age will be tougher.
3 PUDGE RODRIGUEZ, DET
Take the best catcher ever, add a fat new contract plus a lousy supporting cast and stir. Yuck.
4 JAVY LOPEZ, BAL
HR totals the past five seasons: 11, 24, 17, 11, 43. Which of these numbers doesn't belong?
5 JASON VARITEK, BOS
6 JASON KENDALL, PIT
7 MIKE LIEBERTHAL, PHI
8 MATT LCROY, MIN
There's no such thing as a catcher who calls a good fantasy game, so we urge you to check out LeCroy. Sure, Paris Hilton may spend more time behind a plate this year, but LeCroy is eligible because he caught 22 games in 2003. In only 345 at-bats, LeCroy had 17 HRs. With rookie Joe Mauer taking over at catcher, LeCroy should get at least 500 ABs as the full-time DH, enough to produce the kind of breakout numbers Jason Varitek gave those of you who were smart (or lucky) enough to draft him last year.
9 A.J. PIERZYNSKI, SF
Baseball's resident gadfly should relish the chance to get under the skin of a whole new league. But can he prove that last season's .464 SLG wasn't a fluke?
10 RAMON HERNANDEZ, SD
11 PAUL Lo DUCA, LA
12 BENITO SANTIAGO, KC
Sure, he's so old (39 or thereabouts) that he played against his manager. So what? Moving to a hitter's park and doing the DH thing oughta keep him productive.
13 CHARLES JOHNSON, COL
14 JASON La RUE, CIN
15 RAMON CASTRO, FLA
16 ROBBY HAMMOCK, ARI
17 VICTOR MARTINEZ, CLE
It seems like he's been a prospect forever, but he's just 25 and showed signs of living up to his advance billing (.322 BA) in the second half.
18 BENGIE MOLINA, ANA
Put together a nice little season in 2003 (14 HRs, 71 RBIs). Still, don't be seduced by his warning-track power.
19 TOBY HALL, TB
20 JOE MAUER, MIN
21 JOHNNY ESTRADA, ATL
Ex-Phillie could be a bargain if he even approaches his .328 /10/ 66 season at Triple-A Richmond.
22 GREG MYERS, TOR
23 MIGUEL OLIVO, CHW
Has the tools to hit 10 HRs and swipe 10 bases. Worth a shot.
24 MICHAEL BARRETT, CHC
After hitting 10 HRs in just 226 ABs for the Expos, Barrett gets regular duty and responsibility for Prior and Wood.
24 CHAD MOELLER, MIL
26 EINAR DIAZ, TEX
27 BRIAN SCHNEIDER, MON
28 ADAM MELHUSE, OAK
29 DAMIAN MILLER, OAK
30 BRAD AUSMUS, HOU
HOLD 'EM 1. JOE MAUER, MIN 2. VICTOR MARTINEZ, CLE 3. JOHNNY ESTRADA, ATL 4. GERALD LAIRD, TEX 5. GUILLERMO QUIROZ, TOR
RELIEF PITCHERS
The over/under on how many of the closers here will lose their
jobs by September? Whatever it is, we'll take the over.
1 ERIC GAGNE, LA
2 BILLY WAGNER, PHI
3 KEITH FOULKE, BOS
4 JOHN SMOLTZ, ATL
5 MARIANO RIVERA, NYY
7 OCTAVIO DOTEL, HOU
One of baseball's best setup men gets another shot as closer. We expect him to excel. Why? He's a virtually unhittable K machine, and his WHIP has been under 1.00 the past two seasons. With Billy Wagner gone to Philly, Dotel gets the nod over Brad Lidge, another hard-throwing righty. Considering Houston's upgraded rotation, and with Lidge in the setup role, a 40-save season could be looming. That makes Dotel a better buy than either Rivera or Smoltz.
8 ARTHUR RHODES, OAK
A's closers get plenty of save chances. There's no reason to believe Rhodes won't be as successful as his predecessors, Foulke and Billy Koch.
10 EDDIE GUARDADO, SEA
11 ARMANDO BENITEZ, FLA
Few closers have been more consistent than Benitez in the number, if not the quality, of his saves. He'll get hammered at times, but count on 30 saves and plenty of K's.
12 JASON ISRINGHAUSEN, STL
13 TREVOR HOFFMAN, SD
14 JOE BOROWSKI, CHC
Despite 33 saves in 37 ops, the Cubs don't trust Borowski. LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth throw harder; either could steal the role.
15 MATT MANTEI, ARI
16 TROY PERCIVAL, ANA
Stats aren't his problem. Injuries are. At 34, he's likely to see the DL at some point.
17 ROBB NEN, SF
18 JOE NATHAN, MIN
He struggled and had arm trouble as a Giants starter. Last season he was solid as a setup man, and the Twins think he'll thrive as a closer. So do we.
19 JORGE JULIO, BAL
Buyer beware. Yes, it may seem smart to take a guy coming off a 36-save season. But some of Julio's other numbers were signs of trouble: his record was 0-7, he walked way too many hitters and his WHIP was higher than 1.5. Oh, and shoulder problems forced him to cut short his winter league season. No wonder the Orioles hedged their bets by bringing in Mike DeJean, a former closer in Milwaukee. Can't say we didn't warn you.
20 FRANCISCO CORDERO, TEX
21 BRADEN LOOPER, NYM
Lost his job to Ugueth Urbina in Florida last season. Historically, he's a low-K, high-ERA guy.
22 DANNY KOLB, MIL
23 SHAWN CHACON, COL
He's proved that pitching at Coors doesn't bother him. Grab him, get 30 saves.
24 DANNY GRAVES, CIN
The Reds claim he'll return as a closer. They may just be trying to keep pressure off 2003 No.1 pick Ryan Wagner, who appears ready for the role.
25 BOB WICKMAN, CLE
26 MIKE MacDOUGAL, KC
27 DANYS BAEZ, TB
28 BILLY KOCH, CHW
29 CHAD CORDERO, MON
30 FERNANDO RODNEY, DET
31 AQUILINO LOPEZ, TOR
32 JOSE MESA, PIT
HOLD 'EM 1. RAFAEL SORIANO, SEA 2. RYAN WAGNER, CIN 3. CHAD CORDERO, MON 4. JESSE CRAIN, MIN 5. FRANKLYN GERMAN, DET
STARTING PITCHERS
Turning over the aces is the easy part. The trick is to find the sleepers, like the way you unearthed Esteban Loaiza last year.
1 MARK PRIOR, CHC
2 RANDY JOHNSON, ARI
3 PEDRO MARTINEZ, BOS
His walk year. Will he erase the widespread perception of declining skills? We doubt it.
4 CURT SCHILLING, BOS
5 ROY HALLADAY, TOR
6 JASON SCHMIDT, SF
7 KERRY WOOD, CHC
8 MIKE MUSSINA, NYY
9 JAVIER VAZQUEZ, NYY
10 KEVIN BROWN, NYY
11 TIM HUDSON, OAK
12 ROY OSWALT, HOU
13 JOSH BECKETT, FLA
Sometimes a brilliant World Series can cause a player to be overvalued the following season, but in Beckett's case, his entire second half was noteworthy: 2.55 ERA, 93 K's in 88 1/2 IPs. So don't think you'll be able to hang back and steal him after the fifth round. Remember, Beckett and Mark Prior were once projected the same way: 200-inning workhorses who could strike out 250 batters. Beckett's problem was mainly with blisters. Nolan Ryan solved his blister problem by soaking his fingers in pickle juice. Sweet.
14 ESTEBAN LOAIZA, CHW
15 JOHAN SANTANA, MIN
16 BARRY ZITO, OAK
With the extreme drop in his K's last season, there's reason for concern. Don't shun him; just draft Hudson first.
17 BARTOLO COLON, ANA
18 MARK MULDER, OAK
19 BRANDON WEBB, ARI
20 MATT MORRIS, STL
21 ROGER CLEMENS, HOU
His new team's iffier than his old one, and Minute Maid's a home run hitter's delight. We're not too worried, but you shouldn't overpay.
22 HIDEO NOMO, LA
23 WADE MILLER, HOU
24 RANDY WOLF, PHI
25 GREG MADDUX, CHC
26 KEVIN MILLWOOD, PHI
27 JAMIE MOYER, SEA
28 ANDY PETTITTE, HOU
29 RICH HARDEN, OAK
30 CARLOS ZAMBRANO, CHC
31 JOEL PINEIRO, SEA
32 DONTRELLE WILLIS, FLA
33 WOODY WILLIAMS, STL
34 JOSE CONTRERAS, NYY
No matter how old this guy really is, there's no question he has great stuff. Now he's also got a regular rotation slot and plenty of run support. Let's see: 200 IPs, 15 W's sounds right.
35 FREDDY GARCIA, SEA
36 MATT CLEMENT, CHC
37 RUSS ORTIZ, ATL
Nobody should confuse Ortiz with an ace. His 21-win season makes him one of the most overrated pitchers around. Ortiz doesn't help (or hurt) fantasy teams in ERA, ratio or strikeouts, and it's a 50-50 bet he'll ever win more than 15 again. Atlanta's offense is depleted, and Ortiz needs a lot of run support. Most fantasy owners will draft him way too high. Hold back and take Nomo or even Jake Peavy instead.
38 ODALIS PEREZ, LA
39 JAKE PEAVY, SD
40 VICENTE PADILLA, PHI
41 BRETT MYERS, PHI
Millwood's caddy was doing fine in 2003 until a horrible finish. Now he's a year older and stronger, and shouldn't wear down after 30 starts.
42 LIVAN HERNANDEZ, MON
Coming off his best ERA and WHIP season, El Duque's little brother will again toss 200 innings, but nobody believes he'll be as good.
43 BRAD PENNY, FLA
44 DEREK LOWE, BOS
45 AL LEITER, NYM
46 MARK REDMAN, OAK
47 KIP WELLS, PIT
48 SIDNEY PONSON, BAL
49 GIL MECHE, SEA
50 C.C. SABATHIA, CLE
51 MARK BUEHRLE, CHW
52 TIM WAKEFIELD, BOS
53 JARROD WASHBURN, ANA
54 JEROME WILLIAMS, SF
55 BRIAN LAWRENCE, SD
56 MIKE HAMPTON, ATL
57 ERIC MILTON, PHI
Hard-throwing sleeper gets to leave the AL (and DHs) and join a contender. He's lost weight to help his left knee and could deliver 150 K's.
58 ADAM EATON, SD
59 KELVIM ESCOBAR, ANA
Yes, his stats were good as a starter, but we're also concerned about his consistency (or lack thereof). Pass.
60 MIGUEL BATISTA, TOR
61 BEN SHEETS, MIL
62 JON LIEBER, NYY
63 JEFF WEAVER, LA
So he killed your team last season. Get over it. Look up those Tigers stats, and consider nobody hits at Dodger Stadium. Comeback a-brewing.
64 STEVE TRACHSEL, NYM
65 JOHN LACKEY, ANA
66 TOM GLAVINE, NYM
67 TED LILLY, TOR
68 TONY ARMAS, MON
69 HORACIO RAMIREZ, ATL
70 KURT AINSWORTH, BAL
71 KYLE LOHSE, MIN
72 CARL PAVANO, FLA
73 RYAN FRANKLIN, SEA
74 DAVID WELLS, SD
75 BRAD RADKE, MIN
HOLD'EM 1. EDWIN JACKSON, LA 2. ZACK GREINKE, KC 3. SCOTT KAZMIR, NYM 4. COLE HAMELS, PHI 5. DEWON BRAZELTON, TB
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