Commentary

TEAMS FACE A TOUGH CALL ON DRAFT NIGHT: PLAY IT SAFE AND GO WITH THE BEST FIT ON THE BOARD, OR TRY TO HIT IT BIG WITH A RISKY MOVE. CHAD FORD IS PLAYING WITH HOUSE MONEY, SO HE CAN HAVE IT BOTH WAYS

Updated: July 10, 2012, 2:56 PM ET
By Chad Ford

1 MILWAUKEE BUCKS SAFE BET: Andrew Bogut, C, Utah

LONG SHOT: Marvin Williams, F, UNC

Bogut is just what Milwaukee needs: a talented big man. But in three years, Williams just may be seen as the best player of this draft. If only the Bucks had that kind of time.

2 ATLANTA HAWKS SB: Marvin Williams

LS: Deron Williams, PG, Illinois

Atlanta wants Bogut, but if he's gone, they'll grab the prodigy. Thing is, they don't need another project. They need a floor general.

3 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS SB: Gerald Green, G, Gulf Shores Academy, Houston

LS: Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest

Paul is the best on the board, but the Blazers took their point-guard-for-the future, Sebastian Telfair, last year. An athletic 2-guard to grow up with Bassy seems a reasonable alternative.

4 NEW ORLEANS HORNETS SB: Chris Paul

LS: Danny Granger, SF, New Mexico

They'll jump at Paul if they can. And he can fill Baron Davis' shoes. But Granger, the most underrated player in the draft, is an interesting wild card.

5 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS SB: Deron Williams

LS: Raymond Felton, PG, UNC

If the Bobcats can't package their picks for Marvin Williams, they'll take his namesake. But Felton has local ties and pushes it harder.

6 UTAH JAZZ SB: Fran Vazquez, PF, Malaga, Spain

LS: Channing Frye, C, Arizona

Utah's desperate to get Paul or Williams. If it can't, Vazquez, a proven power forward, gives the Jazz welcome size. Frye does too, and his shotblocking and hops will fit in nicely.

7 TORONTO RAPTORS SB: Danny Granger

LS: Gerald Green

Five years post-T-Mac, and the loss still smarts. Green is the closest thing since, so he's headed here if he's available. He won't be, but the Raps could do worse than UNM's solid all-around baller and citizen.

8 NEW YORK KNICKS SB: Channing Frye

LS: Fran Vazquez

The Knicks can't pass up a mobile big man, so they'll take Frye-unless he's too soft for Isiah's taste. If they're lucky, the tougher Vazquez will still be in the greenroom.

9 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS SB: Sean May, PF, UNC

LS: Ike Diogu, PF, Arizona

The seasoned May gives the Warriors a much-needed low-post scorer, but Diogu does too, and given time, might turn out to be the second coming of Elton Brand.

10 LOS ANGELES LAKERS SB: Raymond Felton

LS: Roko Ukic, PG, KK Split, Croatia

Kobe wants guys who won't steal his shots. Felton takes fewer than 10 a game. Ukic plays like Manu. That excites some, but not a selfish star. What Kobe wants, Kobe gets.

11 ORLANDO MAGIC SB: Martell Webster, SG, Seattle Prep

LS: Antoine Wright, SG, Texas A&M

The team needs shooters, and Webster has a great stroke. But Wright has an all-around game that could make Orlando forget T-Mac once and for all.

12 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS SB: Antoine Wright

LS: Joey Graham, SF, Oklahoma State

With Bobby Simmons heading into free agency, Wright is insurance if Donald Sterling decides to get cheap again. But Graham will help out sooner.

13 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS SB: Joey Graham

LS: Ersan Ilyasova, F, Ulker, Turkey

Graham is a great athlete, and he's ready right now. On the other hand, in five years, Ilyasova could be a Kirilenko clone. Can the Bobcats wait?

14 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES SB: Charlie Villanueva, PF, UConn

LS: Ryan Gomes, SF, Providence

Villanueva has lottery talent but an iffy attitude. That's never stopped the Wolves before. Then again, a stand-up guy like Gomes would be a surprise pick for Minny.

15 NEW YORK NETS SB: Hakim Warrick, PF, Syracuse

LS: Wayne Simien, PF, Kansas

The Nets love Warrick because he fits their style. That said, if Simien didn't have a history of injuries, his penchant for drawing double-teams would make him the safe bet here.

16 TORONTO RAPTORS SB: Ike Diogu

LS: Jarrett Jack, PG, Georgia Tech

If Diogu is on the board, his muscle and rebounding make him a great pick for the Raptors. Of course, they could use a guy at the point to back up Rafer Alston, too.

17 INDIANA PACERS SB: Rashad McCants, SG, UNC

LS: Sean May

McCants can shoot it like Reggie. Should his demeanor and slimness disqualify him-and his 'mate with the low-post game remain unplucked- the search for Reggie's replacement will continue.

18 BOSTON CELTICS SB: Yaroslav Korolev, SF, CSKA, Moscow

LS: Johan Petro, C, Pau Orthez, France

The Celtics want a young guy. Thing is, the one with Toni Kukoc's body (Korolev) is ready now, and the one with Jermaine O'Neal's (Petro) is still a way off.

19 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES SB: Julius Hodge, G, NC State

LS: Andrew Bynum, C, St. Joseph HS, Metuchen, N.J.

West loves seniors who can play now. But to get a center, he'll have to chance it on Bynum, who is either Shaq-like or Shaq-lite.

20 DENVER NUGGETS SB: Ersan Ilyasova

LS: Rashad McCants

If Ilyasova is here, Denver should take him and stash him overseas. If McCants is around, they can buck the odds and snag a guy who can be molded by George Karl's tough love.

21 PHOENIX SUNS SB: Johan Petro

LS: Nate Robinson, G, Washington

Petro has a great body and upside, but Robinson would blow up in this offense. Yes, he's short and he's not pure at the point, but he's still one of the rare few who can push it faster than Steve Nash.

22 DENVER NUGGETS SB: Francisco Garcia, SG, Louisville

LS: Hakim Warrick

The Nuggets need a shooter, and Garcia is the top sniper left on the board. But if Warrick is still here, his high-flying act also fits nicely in the thin mountain air.

23 SACRAMENTO KINGS SB: Chris Taft, PF, Pittsburgh

LS: Charlie Villanueva

With CWebb gone, there's room here for a baggage-toting power forward. Taft's size and agility make him the safer of the two picks, but Villanueva's skill set fits this system better.

24 HOUSTON ROCKETS SB: Wayne Simien

LS: Chris Taft

Simien's a no-brainer; Yao needs a low-block foil. But Taft has potential that Jeff Van Gundy may be able to unleash.

25 SEATTLE SUPERSONICS SB: Jarrett Jack

LS: Andray Blatche, PF, South Kent (Conn.) Prep

Jack fills a hole at backup point guard, but Blatche, who at 6'11" can play inside and out, could be a poor man's KG.

26 DETROIT PISTONS SB: Ryan Gomes

LS: Francisco Garcia

The Pistons miss Corliss Williamson's instant O inside, and Gomes is better than Big Nasty. But if Garcia is around, can they pass on a guy who could be Rip with range?

27 UTAH JAZZ SB: Roko Ukic

LS: Yaroslav Korolev

Ukic may be gone-or too unpredictable for Jerry Sloan. Korolev may not be here either, but the Jazz did strike gold with a skinny Russian once before.

28 SAN ANTONIO SPURS SB: David Lee, PF, Florida

LS: Mickael Gelabale, F, Real Madrid, Spain

Lee has the blue-collar pedigree Gregg Popovich loves. Of course, given their track record, would it be so crazy if the Spurs looked beyond our shores once again?

29 MIAMI HEAT SB: Randolph Morris, C, Kentucky

LS: Luther Head, G, Illinois

The Heat will opt for size unless they realize in time that a Head-Wade backcourt would be one of the most exciting in the league.

30 NEW YORK KNICKS SB: Andrew Bynum

LS: Monta Ellis, G, Lanier HS, Jackson, Miss.

Think Isiah Thomas will pass up a light-it-up point guard who reminds him of himself? No way. The only way? If he didn't get the big guy at No. 8 he needs.

Chad Ford | email

Senior Writer, NBA Insider