By Eric KarabellInfield stock watch
I get asked these three questions quite a bit:
1. How many leagues do you play in? 2. How did you get your job? 3. How do you still eat like a college student but not look like David Wells?
Well, I thank my metabolism for being able to eat burgers for breakfast, chocolate bars for dinner and still weigh less than Endy Chavez, and it's about being in the right place at the right time for most careers, including mine. As for the number of leagues, well, this is what I do, after all. I draft a number of teams, double digits each baseball and football season, but I tend to follow closely the leagues I care the most about. I'm really not in as many leagues as one would think. But what's the difference? Drafting is an art that should be practiced.
An attorney gets better the more cases tried. A doctor improves with each surgery. Wouldn't it stand to reason the more drafts you participate in, the better you'll get at them?
It's not even the ides of March and I've probably participated in more than 10 drafts. What have I learned? What trends are there? Yesterday's Blog entry was a hot/not of names, and later in the week I'll discuss each team's closer situations, but today, let's go position by position in the infield for general thoughts and stock rising/falling for the drafts I've seen. That seems to be the best way, other than answering questions in a chat (which I did today) to get to the most topics.
Catchers: I sensed a groundswell of support for poor Victor Martinez in January when I didn't include him in my top 50. C'mon, it's not that I don't like the guy. He's solid. I ranked him at the top of the catching crew. But I'm not getting him in any leagues, not entirely by choice, but because I think someone reaches too soon for him. There's no guarantee he leads catchers in home runs, RBI or batting average. Personally, I think his 20-80 numbers are fine, and could improve. Joe Mauer, however, has more upside, could match his RBI total and steals bases. And Jason Varitek can do everything Martinez can do, but foolishly seems to go a few rounds later in drafts. Among other AL catchers, I'm seeing A.J. Pierzynski and Rod Barajas fall a lot lower than guys like Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez, which seems odd. There's not a huge difference in these players.
Two other AL catching thoughts: Kenji Johjima has been hitting second at times this spring, and hitting well, and I admit I like him more today than a month ago, when he was basically an unknown commodity. Also, why do fantasy owners still take Jason Kendall in the top 10 at the position? He didn't hit even one home run last season, doesn't make enough of an impact in steals anymore to matter and now that he's hitting at the bottom of the lineup, forget about the runs scored.
The NL catching group is not pretty, and you really figure that out when you're in an NL only league, it's round six or seven, and you realize you don't have a catcher and don't want to draft any. Frankly, Josh Willingham is starting to look like a serious option to have the best numbers, certainly in relation to his value. It's not much of a reach, despite the fact he's got all of 48 at-bats at the major league level. But he clearly can hit, and he's no sleeper. He's legit. It's also interesting how people treat the Reds' backstops. Jason LaRue generally gets drafted ahead of Javier Valentin, but I'd prefer Valentin. Also, in one of my NL leagues, four potential Rockies catchers were drafted. Frankly, I don't expect much from any Colorado backstops.
First base: There are so many first basemen out there, after you get by the top 10 or 15, you're liable to see a lot of different names taken. For example, Detroit's Chris Shelton is just as likely to be the 15th first baseman drafted as he is to go 25th, or undrafted. He could go 30-100, or end up sitting in 30 games, the Tigers really haven't made it clear his role. Jason Giambi scares people, but every so often he's a top 10 guy at the position, mainly in leagues with Yankees fans. Ryan Howard might end up a top five first baseman or on the level of Carlos Delgado and Paul Konerko if he keeps up this spring. He's homering every day. Doesn't Philly have to consider hitting him third or fourth in the order at some point?
Fantasy owners are proving that if they see something hidden in a first baseman, even if the rankings aren't as kind (like with Shelton, or Prince Fielder), they'll move 'em up and take them as a utility option. Personally, I haven't been on the Conor Jackson bandwagon, but he went in round 13 of a draft last week, ahead of the consistent, reliable Shea Hillenbrand. Should a fantasy owner play it safe in the middle rounds, or go after the potential? In the middle rounds, I'll take a Hillenbrand, Dan Johnson and Nick Johnson over the unproven kid. In the final rounds, it's worth taking a shot.
Fantasy owners are moving Mike Jacobs up. Maybe it's because they've noticed his home run rate as a Met. Phil Nevin, with his power hitting spring, is moving into range to be drafted. And Ryan Klesko, Kevin Millar and Adam LaRoche aren't too popular these days.
Second base: I didn't rank Philly's Utley behind Alfonso Soriano because I was worried people would call me out on a Phillies bias the other way. Trust me, I don't mix real baseball with fantasy. I didn't want to overrate things and drop Soriano too much in the rankings just because of the ballyhooed interleague trade. He's still going to be a very good player, even with the switch from bountiful Arlington, Texas, to spacious Washington, D.C. He's not any slower, or less motivated in another contract year. I could see a 25-35 season, much like Carlos Beltran of the Mets. But Soriano plays second base! And, what if he gets dealt again? Could happen.
Regardless, I had Soriano as a late first-round pick, but with the situation in D.C. getting worse before it gets better, I've moved him down a bit, into early round two. It's not the .250 batting average that scares me. I think when Soriano does eventually report to the Nationals that he and Frank Robinson are going to have a friendly discussion, and if Soriano doesn't say the right things and switch positions, Frank just might bench the guy. Could happen.
Utley is a safer 30-100 option than Soriano, and any other second baseman. Look up Jeff Kent for this decade and add a bunch of steals. I'm seeing Soriano drafted in the 13-to-16 range generally, mid round two. I have no problem with that. In a few leagues he went top 10, in another he wasn't top 20. Guess we'll eventually find out what Soriano does, but either way Utley is now a second-rounder in my mind.
Brian Roberts remains no lock for opening day with his balky elbow, and fantasy owners appear worried. Even if Roberts settles back into the pre-power stats, he's worth taking in the first five rounds for the potential 30 steals alone. Look around the AL: There's not enough speed to go around, making Roberts more in demand. Also, when it comes to Jorge Cantu, I do appreciate his 2005 numbers. But you're not drafting those numbers. You want what he'll do in 2006. Does anyone think he knocks in more than 115 runs again? I'm not ripping the guy, but don't take the guy in round three, either. I haven't seen anyone do that yet, but users keep talking about Cantu as if he's the next Ryne Sandberg.
The real stories at second base are in the NL, with kiddies Rickie Weeks and Josh Barfield having impressive springs. Weeks' job and spot in the batting order appear safe, but Barfield hasn't been guaranteed anything. They're both being drafted real high, while hitters with a more defined, veteran role like the Dodgers' Kent, Craig Biggio, Ray Durham and even Ryan Freel are dropping. Doesn't make much sense. You know I'm going to end up with Kent in a few leagues. He hasn't shown decline yet, and I think he's safe for this year, especially if he drops out of the top 40 in your draft.
Shortstop: I ranked Miguel Tejada ahead of Michael Young in January, and haven't changed my mind. I don't understand the opposition to Tejada; he doesn't need to knock in 150 runs to be a first-round pick. He did hit better than .300 last year and led the position in RBI. I agree Young is a second-round pick, but Tejada has better power potential and also hits for average. Fantasy owners are also jumping on the big three of speedy NL shortstops early, with Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal. All things equal, I'd take Rollins, but there's only one who can steal 75 bases. Yep, Reyes just might do that.
J.J. Hardy has become a draftable option, mainly because people are aware of his 2005 splits (first half .187, second half .308, with power). His teammate, Bill Hall, is dropping. Where's he going to play? The Brewers appear committed to Corey Koskie at third, so Hall might just play against right-handers. Plus, Corey Hart is having an impressive spring, and he's going to steal the at-bats against southpaws at first base. He'll play. Juan Uribe is getting some extra love for his move to the No. 2 spot in the White Sox order, while Angel Berroa is barely being drafted at all. He's slated to hit in the bottom third of the Kansas City order.
Then there's the case of Jack Wilson. He reported to camp in great shape, just like everyone else. (It's like in "Shawshank Redemption"; "Don't you know that everyone in here is innocent" was the line. In baseball it's "Don't you know everyone in here is in great shape?") But then the Pirates broke out the contract extension for Wilson, known more for the glove than the bat. Could it be that Wilson is developing 15-homer power? Fantasy owners aren't taking him over Jeter, but they are taking him. Without this news, Wilson wouldn't be drafted in most leagues.
Third base: Rounding out the infield, David Wright is becoming a first-round pick in a lot of leagues. In fact, he's going ahead of Miguel Cabrera. I ranked it that way, but I think people are switching these guys around for the wrong reason. Cabrera is going to hit, even if Mickey Mouse is protecting him in the order. The Marlins have a lot of question marks, but Cabrera is not one of them. I didn't downgrade him a bit because of the supporting cast.
It appears that people are terrified of Scott Rolen, which is probably why he's ending up on a bunch of my teams. Sure, I see the risk, but you've got to stop thinking about Rolen's lost 2005 campaign. He's only 31. The shoulder is healthy. I'm not expecting more than 30 homers or 110 RBI, but Rolen was a rock at the position for years. In one of my leagues Eric Chavez was a fourth-round pick, which is fine, but three rounds later I still didn't have a starter at third and Rolen was sitting there. How couldn't I take him there?
Adrian Beltre, for his tremendous hitting in the World Baseball Classic, is rising. Edwin Encarnacion, for his home run prowess in spring training, is as well. Are fantasy owners looking at too small of a sample size in analyzing these guys? Beltre is not likely to hit 48 home runs. That is obvious, but needs to be pointed out. He was a 20-80 guy for years, and his contract run has messed up the perception of him. He should hit for a higher average than last year, and I'd expect closer to a 25-100 power line, but he's not a better draft pick than Cantu, Morgan Ensberg or Melvin Mora. This could change, but Beltre could easily go back to sleeping in Seattle. Encarnacion should be the everyday third baseman in Cincy, but I doubt that occurs right away. Ryan Freel and Rich Aurilia will play as well. Encarnacion is going to get a ton of spring at-bats, because the team wants to see him play. Doesn't mean he plays more than five days a week come April.
Of the older fellas, Mike Lowell wasn't being drafted a month ago, but seems to be one of those later round selections now. I think people will be looking at his 2005 season as a fluke in about two months. He's in a perfect situation to succeed in Boston. Aaron Boone, Joe Randa and Bill Mueller are similar third baseman in draft value, but I'd go with Lowell.
With outfielders, there are so many of them, it's tougher to gauge the changes. And with pitchers, honestly, there's big disparity. Some people think Zach Duke is an ace, others make him their fifth starter. Who knows.
OK, back with a look at each team's bullpen later in the week.
