By David Fleming
Page 2

Are you familiar with those Sudoku math puzzle thingies? (Of course you are! I can see one in the pocket of your shirt, just behind your laminated Lando Calrissian limited edition trading card.) Well, this time of year, the NFL P.R. machine churns out its own version of a math-geek puzzle in the form of an endlessly changing chart called Playoff Scenarios, that contains every complicated, and oftentimes bizarre, circumstance under which each team can still make the playoffs. (Except the Packers, of course.)

And I'm happy to report that according to these tedious and confusing equations, the Jags are going to the playoffs. No question. It's a done deal.

Well, OK, fine, if you want to get all technical about it, first they have to solve this simple equation: JAX win + PIT loss + KC loss + SD loss + DEN win or tie or clinch a strength of victory tiebreaker over PIT.

In English that means: The Jags have to beat San Francisco and then the Giants have to get past the Chiefs, the Steelers have to gag in Minnie, the Chargers must lose to the Colts and the Broncos would have to tie Buffalo, sacrifice a chicken, throw a fistful of smelling salts over their left shoulder and hop on one foot for six hours while waiting to catch a shooting star just to get the 82 statistical anomalies needed for them to clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over Pittsburgh.

So, like I said, the Jags' path to the playoffs is pretty simple and straight forward.

Simple, maybe, but not interesting.

That's where the FlemFile comes in, to dash a little flava on the NFL playoff scenario sudokus.

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AFC EAST
New England can clinch division with:

    1. NE win, OR

    2. MIA loss, OR

    3. NE tie + MIA tie, OR

    4. NE win + MIA loss + Bill Belichick's nasty gray top gets named Sweatshirt of the Year + the Pats schedule a game in Pittsburgh, where they seem to win with ease every year around this time.

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati can clinch playoff berth with:

    1. CIN tie + KC loss + SD loss + T.J. Houshmandzadeh's performance on the field continues to cover the checks Chad Johnson keeps writing with his yapper.

Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. PIT win + CIN loss or tie + KC loss + SD loss + an odd scheduling quirk that allows them to play against that "ferocious" Bears defense four more times.

AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis has clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Colts can advance to the Super Bowl with:

    1. Very + little + difficulty, actually.

Houston can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. Dan Reeves - Dom Capers + Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski - three more of those mysterious late-game collapses + Reggie Bush + 365 days.

AFC WEST
Denver can clinch division with:

    1. DEN win + KC loss or tie + SD loss or tie, OR

    2. DEN tie + KC loss + SD loss, OR

    3. DEN tie + KC loss + SD loss + John Lynch head butts the NFL official in charge of playoff scenarios, OR

    4. DEN tie + KC loss + SD loss + Jake Plummer grows his Grizzly Adams beard long enough to hide a fifth wideout.

Kansas City can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. No + seriously + stop+ laughing + it + could + happen.

San Diego can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. A trip back in time, using Marty Schottenheimer's patented "big-game collapsinator" time machine that allows the Chargers to SOMEHOW FIND A WAY TO BEAT THE LOWLY DOLPHINS WITH THEIR ENTIRE SEASON RIDING ON THE OUTCOME.


NFC EAST
New York Giants can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. NYG win + CAR loss + ATL loss + DAL-WASH tie + Tom Coughlin avoids getting picked up by the ghost of Christmas past, OR

    2. NYG win + CAR loss + ATL loss + DAL-WASH tie + proper recognition for the back-to-back MVP-caliber seasons turned in by Tiki Barber.

Philadelphia can clinch a playoff berth with:

1. News spreading around the division about Terrell Owens throwing himself another birthday party this week + with players crippled by fits of uncontrollable laughter, NYG + DAL + WASH are forced to forfeit division title to PHI. (Although I must admit it's kinda cool that T.O. once got both Doug E. Fresh and Slick Rick to show up to this thing.)

NFC NORTH
Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. CHI win + NYG loss + DAL loss, OR

    2. CHI win + DAL-WASH tie + CAR loss + Kyle + Orton + goes + missing + in Iowa, OR

    3. CHI win + NYG loss + DAL loss + no more games against teams above .500.

Minnesota can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. MIN win + CHI loss + NYG loss + DAL-WASH tie + CAR loss + a deep freeze that keeps all of the 10,000 lakes frozen till the offseason, OR

    2. MIN win + 15 losses in rest of NFC + Paul Tagliabue apologizing (for anything) + a rabbit's foot + a new, full season of "Chappelle's Show" + my alma mater, the No. 2-ranked Miami of Ohio winning the NCAA hockey championship + a No. 1 album for K-Fed and a duet with Bono + fans in Green Bay and TV announcers finally being brave enough to admit that maybe, perhaps, Brett Favre is having a horrendous season that is only partly to blame on the talent around him.

Detroit can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. DET - Matt Millen (who has lost more as a GM than the expansion traffic-barrel Bucs) - Joey Harrington + Ford ownership taken over by Honda + franchise transferred to CFL + Mooch lending the team some of his $11 million severance scratch to buy free agents + one decent wideout + a few lucky breaks against the Alouttes.

NFC WEST
Seattle can clinch first-round bye with:

    1. SEA win, OR

    2. SEA tie + NYG loss or tie + CAR loss or tie + TB loss or tie, OR

    3. SEA tie + NYG loss or tie + CHI loss, OR

    4. SEA tie + CHI loss + CAR loss or tie + TB loss or tie, OR

    5. NYG loss + CAR loss + TB loss, OR

    6. Actually this one is so bizarre -- since it requires as many as three ties and there's only been one tie in the last eight NFL seasons -- that I don't even need a gag at the end.

NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. ATL loss + CAR loss + WASH loss + that defense just keeps getting older and slower, like I expertly predicted in the preseason.

Carolina can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. CAR win + TB loss + ATL-CHI tie + MIN loss + a display of consistency superior to that of eggnog.

    2. CAR win + TB loss + ATL-CHI tie + MIN loss + Panthers defensive linemen somehow manage to survive another game against Falcons line coach Alex "The Lumberjack" Gibbs.

3. CAR win + TB loss + ATL-CHI tie + MIN loss + someone in the city of Charlotte, N.C., explains to me how they can build a gazillion-dollar hoops arena with the kind of hillbilly sound system that made a sharp band such as U2 sound like it was performing under water.

Atlanta can clinch a playoff berth with:

    1. Yeah + right + like + anyone + can + figure + out + this + division + or + this + league + at + this + time + of + year.

David Fleming is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine. His book, "Noah's Rainbow," a father's emotional journey from the death of his son to the birth of his daughter, can be preordered through Baywood Publishing. Contact him at Dave.Fleming@espn3.com




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