Can a pitcher's demeanor affect his team's offense?
The San Francisco Giants scored four runs in a three-game series against the Diamondbacks over the weekend and won two out of three. How does that happen? Easy. The Diamondbacks, perhaps the only team that can match the Giants' offensive futility, scored two runs in 27 innings.
It's the time of year to celebrate small sample sizes. Weird team statistical glitches create weird individual statistical glitches. Dan Haren has started three games for the Diamondbacks. He has an ERA of 1.89. He is 0-3.
It's difficult to throw at least six innings in each start; give up one, two and one run; compile a miniscule WHIP of 0.79; and manage to lead the league in losses. Has a guy ever led the league in losses and ERA? Nolan Ryan in 1987 came closest when he was first in ERA (2.76) and second in losses (16, one fewer than Astro teammate Bob Knepper).
The Rangers' Vicente Padilla, to pick a name only slightly at random, has a 9.64 ERA, a WHIP of 2.0 … and one more win than Haren.
This got me thinking about a recent conversation I had with a knowledgeable baseball man who believes run support can be linked -- at least tangentially -- to a pitcher's demeanor. And even his history.
This doesn't have a lot to do with Haren. He's established as one of the best pitchers in the game, and over the course of the season he figures to win his share of games, even games in which he pitches far worse than he has in his three losses.
However, if my baseball guy's assumptions are correct, it could affect Haren down the line.
First, a disclaimer: I'm not a proponent of baseball mysticism, in which David Eckstein always wins the World Series because he's small and scrappy and simply wants it more than Alex Rodriguez. (Although, looking at the Padres this year, I'm wavering a bit on the Eckstein thing. If that team wins the World Series, I'm going so full-on mystic it'll make Susan Sarandon's Baseball Annie look like Bill James.) I think teams win games because they have better players and not because they get along off the field or have an inordinate number of guys who dive head-first into first base to prove they want it more than Alex Rodriguez.
My baseball guy is someone who shall remain nameless, is not presently employed in the big leagues but has enough of a track record with pitchers that I listen when he talks. He was discussing two Giants pitchers: Matt Cain, who has been the pre-Haren cover boy for lack of run support, and Tim Lincecum, who was 18-5 and won the Cy Young last year for the same team, one with no discernible offense.
(Cain, for comparison's sake, is 31-43 in 106 starts over his career with a 3.71 ERA. In 2007, his 3.65 ERA produced a 7-16 record. It's not 0-3 with a 1.89, but Cain is clearly a guy who has pitched better than the results indicate. I would argue that Cain's lack of run support has led people to consider him a better pitcher than he actually is; around the San Francisco media, it has become a form of overcompensation that borders on pity. Nevertheless, 3.71 should put you at .500, minimum. To extend this even further, consider Chris Young of the Padres: 44-28, 3.75 ERA in 120 career starts.)
So take it away, Baseball Guy:
"When Cain pitches, it's in the head of every Giants hitter. They know they don't score for him -- it's all they hear about -- so they're thinking about it from the time they get to the park. They like the guy, and they want to win for him because he takes it so hard. From the time the first guy gets into the box, they're thinking 'We've got to score for Matt so it doesn't happen again.' And Cain feels it. He walks in after every inning and sits there with a towel over his head, looking like he's expecting the worst. There's nothing wrong with that, that's just who he is and how he approaches his job. But every guy in the dugout sees it, and it's a constant reminder."
And from there, of course, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. They don't score because they know they have to score. That's the mystic's version, anyway.
Lincecum, on other hand, is far less dour than Cain. He talks to everybody, even reporters, on the day he pitches. He laughs and jokes. He's light.
Baseball Guy says "The guys look at Timmy and they think, 'He's got it covered.' Timmy says, 'Don't worry, guys -- I've got it covered.' They know he's going to go out there and shut the other team down, so they don't press. They play with a bounce in their step. They think, 'Hey, whatever they get is going to be good enough, because Timmy's got it covered.'"
I guess there's a chance the personality of the starting pitcher can extend to the whole team. It makes sense when this guy says it, so there's a chance it could extend to Haren from here on out. If enough Diamondbacks get it in their head that they can't score for Haren, and if enough people draw attention to it, and if Haren himself starts to think about it and exude it, then it might become a problem.
For now, though, it's a statistical anomaly, a fluke of the small sample size.
And it's probably worth a note to point out that the one game the Giants lost this weekend came on Saturday, when Lincecum threw eight shutout innings, struck out 13 and saw an 0-0 game become a 2-0 D-backs' win when the bullpen coughed it up.
So if you see him with a dour look on his face and a towel over his head, you'll know what he's thinking.
ESPN The Magazine senior writer Tim Keown co-wrote Josh Hamilton's autobiography, "Beyond Belief: Finding the Strength to Come Back," which is available on Amazon.com. Sound off to Tim here.
