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Bears and Jets fans, you might want to pass on this position.

While running back can often produce successful rookies (see Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown and Laurence Maroney of late) it has also produced some colossal busts, including Blair Thomas, Rashaan Salaam, Curtis Enis and Tony Smith among others.

Success criteria, first-round NFL running backs

What makes for a successful NFL career? We've set the bar at any combination of 80 games played (a core requirement), plus a 4.0 yards-per-carry average and a Pro Bowl appearance. For more recent draftees, we'll use a combination of accrued stats and gut feelings. It stands to reason then, that a bust, for our purposes, is any first-round back who falls short of those numbers. Or any back, apparently, drafted by the Chicago Bears.

1989
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Lions	3	Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State	153	15,260/5.0	10	No
Steelers	7	Tim Worley, Georgia	48	1792/3.9	0	Yes
Dolphins	9	Sammie Smith, Florida State	44	1881/3.5	0	Yes

Sanders you're familiar with. Worley was serviceable, playing six seasons and finishing with 3.9 yards per carry, but you're not looking for "serviceable" at the No. 7 slot. Smith was out of football by 1992.

1990
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Jets	2	Blair Thomas, Penn State	64	2,236/4.2	0	Yes
Cowboys	17	Emmitt Smith, Florida	226	18,355/4.2	8	No
Packers	19	Darrell Thompson, Minnesota	60	1,641/3.5	0	Yes

Thomas is the reason Jets fans congregate yearly to boo their team's first-round selection. Oddly, Thomas lasted seven years and had 4.2 yards per carry, but if you're a GM, would you spend a No. 2 on him? No.

1991
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Patriots	14	Leonard Russell, Arizona State	85	3,973/3.4	0	Yes
Chiefs	21	Harvey Williams, LSU	110	3,952/3.9	0	No
Giants	27	Jarrod Bunch, Michigan	47	629/4.6	0	Yes

Russell flirted with 1,000 yards his rookie season, and barely topped the 1,000-yard mark in '93, but posted just 3.4 YPC for his career. Bunch is now a fine character actor in Hollywood, after a disappointing three-year career. Williams had a long career as a utility man, playing RB/FB/WR/TE, meaning, in part, that he never really got it done as a runner.

1992
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Falcons	19	Tony Smith, Southern Mississippi	33	329/3.8	0	Yes
Saints	21	Vaughn Dunbar, Indiana	39	935/3.5	0	Yes

Woof. Smith may be the most forgettable first-round back in history, playing, essentially, one season with Atlanta. Dunbar was gone in three.

1993
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Cardinals	3	Garrison Hearst, Georgia	126	7,966/4.4	2	No
Rams	10	Jerome Bettis, Notre Dame	192	13,662/3.9	6	No
Vikings	21	Robert Smith, Ohio State	98	6,818/4.8	2	No

A banner year for first-round backs, as all three made multiple Pro Bowls. Hearst overcame a serious knee injury to play for 10 seasons, with 4.4 YPC and 30 TDs. Bettis played for 13 seasons and scored 91 TDs. Smith played for eight seasons, rushing for over 6,800 yards, before retiring early.

1994
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Colts	2	Marshall Faulk, San Diego State	176	12,779/4.3	7	No
Chiefs	25	Greg Hill, Texas A&M	79	328/4.2	0	Yes

Faulk, of course, is a future Hall of Famer and hero to fantasy players everywhere. Hill falls into the category of "He was a first rounder?" Hill played six seasons, and registered 4.2 YPC. Not bad, but also not great. The 1994 draft also produced Charlie Garner, Dorsey Levens and Jamal Anderson in later rounds.

1995
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bengals	1	Ki-Jana Carter, Penn State	57	1,127/3.6	0	Yes
Giants	17	Tyrone Wheatley, Michigan	124	4,962/3.9	0	No
Raiders	18	Napoleon Kaufman, Washington	91	4,792/4.9	0	No
Jaguars	19	James Stewart, Tennessee	102	5,841/4.0	0	No
Bears	21	Rashaan Salaam, Colorado	31	1,682/3.6	0	Yes

Thanks to a series of injuries, Carter never panned out as a Bengal; however, he did have a great cameo in "Jerry Maguire." File Wheatley under "solid but unspectacular" with 10 seasons and 3.9 YPC. Heisman winner Salaam was a bust, and Stewart was the jewel of this group -- the consummate "move the chains" workhorse for Jacksonville and later Detroit. Kaufman hashed out a nice career (91 games, 4.9 YPC), and you have to love a short guy (5-foot-9) named Napoleon. This draft also happened to produce Curtis Martin (third round) and Terrell Davis (sixth round).

1996
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Rams	6	Lawrence Phillips, Nebraska	35	1,453/3.4	0	Yes
Panthers	8	Tim Biakabutuka, Michigan	49	2,530/4.1	0	Yes
Oilers	14	Eddie George, Ohio State	142	10,441/3.6	4	No

George is, of course, the class of this draft, with little more of note, besides the gamble that was Phillips. Biakabutuka never had a 1,000-yard season and battled injuries.

1997
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bucs	12	Warrick Dunn, Florida State	150	9,461/4.2	3	No
Bills	23	Antowain Smith, Houston	131	6,881/3.9	0	No

Smith became a solid NFL starter, and Dunn a star, but the real value in this draft came in Round 2, which unearthed Corey Dillon and a broadcast journalist named Tiki Barber.

1998
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bears	5	Curtis Enis, Penn State	34	1,497/3.3	0	Yes
Jaguars	9	Fred Taylor, Florida	112	9,513/4.6	0	No
Patriots	18	Robert Edwards, Georgia	28	1,222/3.9	0	Yes
Dolphins	29	John Avery, Mississippi	29	524/3.5	0	Yes

Edwards was a bust for reasons somewhat beyond his control -- a freak knee injury sustained in a Pro Bowl flag football game. He's currently playing in Canada. Avery was last seen in the XFL (seriously), while Enis didn't even manage to become Blair Thomas 2.0. Fred Taylor, while loathed by fantasy owners, has actually been very productive.

1999
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Colts	4	Edgerrin James, Miami	112	10,385/4.1	4	No
Saints	5	Ricky Williams, Texas	82	7,097/4.0	1	No

The Colts proved justified in taking James over Heisman winner Williams, who, while disappointing, can't be considered a bust.

2000
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Ravens	5	Jamal Lewis, Tennessee	91	7,801/4.3	1	No
Cardinals	7	Thomas Jones, Virginia	100	5,384/4.0	0	No
Giants	11	Ron Dayne, Wisconsin	83	2,949/3.7	0	Yes
Seahawks	19	Shaun Alexander, Alabama	106	8,713/4.4	3	No
Rams	31	Trung Canidate, Arizona	45	1,095/4.6	0	Yes

Canidate had great speed -- that was the book on him, and while he was a bust by our standards, he actually finished with a respectable YPC (4.6) for his career. Alexander has been great, Lewis had the one monster Pro Bowl season, and Jones has hammered out a very solid career. Insert your own Dayne quip here.

2001
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Chargers	5	LaDainian Tomlinson, Texas Christian	95	9,176/4.5	4	No
Saints	23	Deuce McAllister, Mississippi	81	5,586/4.3	2	No
Vikings	27	Michael Bennett, Wisconsin	75	3,374/4.5	1	No

While Bennett and his track speed haven't completely panned out, McAllister and Tomlinson have been stars. Tomlinson, in fact, could go down as the best back to play the game before it's said and done. All three have been to the Pro Bowl.

2002
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Browns	16	William Green, Boston College	46	2,109/3.7	0	Yes
Falcons	18	T.J. Duckett, Michigan State	66	2,307/3.9	0	Yes

At first glance, what a clunker of a draft. Green and his personal issues made little impact in Cleveland, and Duckett has been a big (pun intended) disappointment thus far as well, first in Atlanta and then in Washington. However, what a treasure trove of later-round backs -- DeShaun Foster, Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, and Chester Taylor.

2003
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Yards, YPC	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bills	23	Willis McGahee, Miami	46	3,365/3.9	0	No
Chiefs	27	Larry Johnson, Penn State	48	4,205/4.7	2	No

This was the year Drew Rosenhaus earned his paycheck, as a legendary predraft sales job (remember the workout videos?) propelled the injured McGahee back up the charts. McGahee fared well during his first active season in 2004 (13 TDs), but the Bills have since shipped him to Baltimore. File him under "too early to tell." You've heard of Johnson.

Crunching the Numbers: First-Round RBs, 1989-2003
Number of RBs drafted: 41

Notable busts: Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, Lawrence Phillips, Curtis Enis (that's three Penn State guys if you're counting)

Number of busts: 20

Bust percentage: 49 percent

Players on the bubble (could be considered non-busts): Tim Biakabutuka, Greg Hill

Number of running backs with at least one Pro Bowl appearance: 15

Pro Bowl percentage: 36 percent

Teams with multiple busts: Falcons, Rams, Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Patriots

Conclusions
This position ended up being riskier than anticipated. Running back, by conventional wisdom, is an "easier" transition for rookies simplicity-wise (run to daylight), so one would think the bust percentage would be low. However, a good number of the players busted due to injury (Ki-Jana Carter, Robert Edwards), the legal system (Lawrence Phillips) and just plain subpar performance (many others).

That said, there seems to be a strong argument for taking your running back in a later round, as proven by (in no particular order) Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber, Ricky Watters, Terrell Davis, Chris Warren, Charlie Garner and Curtis Martin all having come out of later rounds during the study cycle, and outperforming most of the first-rounders.

Ted Kluck is not a scientist, rather he is the author of three books, including "Facing Tyson: Fifteen Fighters, Fifteen Stories" (Lyons Press 2006) and a full-fledged draft geek. He recently spent a season playing professional football as a member of the Battle Creek Crunch (GLIFL), where he was, without a doubt, a bust.