By position: QB | RB | WR | O-line | DE | DT | LB | CB | S | Study wrap

Mike Mamula. One name says it all. Since players like Lawrence Taylor (technically an outside linebacker), Reggie White and Bruce Smith terrorized quarterbacks in the 1980s and '90s, teams have continually been on the hunt for players who can provide pressure off the edge. This has resulted in some great picks on draft day, but has also resulted in workout warriors like Mamula being drafted based on "upside" and never living up to that potential on the field.

Like wide receiver, defensive end has the feel of a "boom or bust" type of position -- one where guys either come in and make marked contributions (Simeon Rice) or they are in and out of the league within a few years, having failed to make an impact (Mamula, Cedric Jones). Note that some DEs eventually move to defensive tackle.

Success criteria, first-round defensive ends

Since DEs are brought in, generally, to generate sacks, I thought I would be remiss to leave this out as a measuring stick. I've set the bar pretty low, at an average of four sacks per season, with a benchmark, again, of 80 games played. A Pro Bowl appearance, as usual, will cancel out underperformance in another category.

1989
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Chargers	8	Burt Grossman, Pittsburgh	85	7.25	0	No
Bears	12	Trace Armstrong, Florida	211	7.0	1	No
Jets	14	Jeff Lageman, Virginia	122	4.7	0	No
Saints	19	Wayne Martin, Arkansas	171	7.5	1	No

The Lageman pick might have done more to build the Mel Kiper brand than any other draft event, as the pick prompted Kiper to say that "obviously the Jets have no idea what the draft is all about." Lageman turned out OK and the rest of this class was solid as well, although Grossman may not have proved worthy of the No. 8 pick. Armstrong played an astonishing 211 games.

1990
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bucs	4	Keith McCants, Alabama	88	2.25	0	Yes
Raiders	11	Anthony Smith, Arizona	98	8.2	0	No

The McCants pick was famously bad, and I am reminded that it has really never been fun to be a Bucs fan. Smith was a very good defensive end on some very mediocre Oakland teams.

1991: No first-round defensive ends

1992
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Dolphins	12	Marco Coleman, Georgia Tech	207	4.7	1	No
Bears	22	Alonzo Spellman, Ohio State	123	4.7	0	No
Chargers	23	Chris Mims, Tennessee	104	5.3	0	No
Lions	26	Robert Porcher, South Carolina State	187	7.9	2	No

Overall, not a bad class valuewise. Coleman and Mims were both solid and Porcher was a standout on bad Detroit teams for years. The physically gifted but erratic Spellman was really the only problem here, but by the numbers anyway, he avoids the bust tag.

1993
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bengals	5	John Copeland, Alabama	107	3	0	Yes
Bucs	6	Eric Curry, Alabama	75	1.8	0	Yes

Ahh, remember the year of the Alabama bookends? Both of these guys were disappointing journeymen, considering their lofty draft slots. Copeland eclipses our longevity metric, but his three sacks per year and no Pro Bowls compel me to attach the bust label. Chris Slade, Mike Strahan and Michael McCrary all came off the board later, and all were more productive players.

1994
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
49ers	7	Bryant Young, Notre Dame	176	6.4	4	No
Saints	13	Joe Johnson, Louisville	117	5.8	2	No
Cowboys	23	Shante Carver, Arizona State	48	2.9	0	Yes

Young became a stalwart for San Francisco, and Johnson had a long, solid career as well. Carver is the only bust in this group -- he was a long, lean DE who never really assimilated on the pro level and was last seen in the XFL.

1995
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Rams	6	Kevin Carter, Florida	192	8.3	1	No
Eagles	7	Mike Mamula, Boston College	77	5.3	0	Yes
Vikings	11	Derrick Alexander, Florida State	73	4.1	0	Yes
Jets	16	Hugh Douglas, Central State (Ohio)	138	8.0	3	No

Mamula was, of course, the first Mike Mamula. The pre-draft, increase-your-stock-by-specific-workouts trend started with Mamula, who turned in a Herculean combine performance followed by an undistinguished career. It is a trend that has continued, but agents now routinely pay tens of thousands of dollars for these preseason workouts. Douglas and Carter were both very good players. And Mamula, despite his infamous bust label, had some OK numbers -- there are many others who were worse busts than him.

1996
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Cardinals	3	Simeon Rice, Illinois	166	11.9	2	No
Giants	5	Cedric Jones, Oklahoma	73	3.0	0	Yes
Bucs	12	Regan Upshaw, Cal	110	3.8	0	No
Vikings	16	Duane Clemons, Cal	142	5.0	0	No
Bucs	22	Marcus Jones, North Carolina	84	4.0	0	No

The brothers Jones (actually unrelated) were the only two truly disappointing players in this group, with Clemons and Upshaw -- the two Cal ends -- both providing quality performances for their teams at times. Rice, however, is the star of this group -- worthy of his No. 3 status. He has become such a fixture in Tampa that one forgets his time languishing in NFL purgatory (Arizona).

1997
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bengals	14	Reinard Wilson, Florida State	93	4.0	0	No
Redskins	17	Kenard Lang, Miami	153	4.8	0	No
Oilers	18	Kenny Holmes, Miami	98	5.5	0	No
Jaguars	21	Renaldo Wynn, Notre Dame	152	2.3	0	No
Eagles	25	Jon Harris, Virginia	24	1.0	0	Yes
Broncos	28	Trevor Pryce, Clemson	121	7.1	4	No

There is another trend developing: two DEs from the same school going in the first round. It stands to reason that on a college team with two adequate DEs, one providing a consistent pass rush would only help the other. Holmes has had flashes and Lang has hung around, even reinventing himself as a 3-4 OLB in Cleveland. Wilson was a little disappointing given his hype and Pryce has been a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Wynn escapes bust status because of his durability and longevity. Does anyone remember Harris?

1998
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Cardinals	3	Andre Wadsworth, Florida State	36	2.6	0	Yes
Rams	6	Grant Wistrom, Nebraska	132	6.1	0	No
Panthers	14	Jason Peter, Nebraska	38	1.9	0	Yes

Again, two DEs from one school: Peter and Wistrom from Nebraska. Wistrom enjoyed a solid career, Peter was a huge bust. Ditto for Wadsworth, who battled knee injuries.

1999
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Titans	16	Jevon Kearse, Florida	97	8.9	3	No
Cowboys	20	Ebenezer Ekuban, North Carolina	107	3.5	0	No
Seahawks	22	Lamar King, Saginaw Valley State	58	2.4	0	Yes
Falcons	30	Patrick Kerney, Virginia	121	7.64	1	No

While Ekuban and King have been disappointments, Kerney has enjoyed a solid career. Kearse, while he looked like a perennial All-Pro early on, has tailed a bit. Ekuban is right on the edge of bust status, falling below 4.0 sacks per year, and making no Pro Bowl trips; however, his longevity keeps him off the list.

2000
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Browns	1	Courtney Brown, Penn State	62	3.1	0	Yes
Jets	12	Shaun Ellis, Tennessee	108	7.25	1	No
Jets	13	John Abraham, South Carolina	81	8.91	3	No
Bills	26	Erik Flowers, Arizona State	58	1.0	0	Yes

The Brown and Tim Couch selections are perhaps most indicative of Cleveland's problems during this era. Ellis and Abraham -- while different types of DEs -- have both been very good.

2001
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Bengals	4	Justin Smith, Missouri	95	6.8	0	No
Patriots	6	Richard Seymour, Georgia	87	5.1	5	No
49ers	7	Andre Carter, Cal	85	6.4	0	No
Packers	10	Jamal Reynolds, Florida State	18	1.0	0	Yes

Seymour has been the quintessential 3-4 DE/DT and a star player for the Patriots. Smith, after a slow start, has really established himself as a Bengal. Reynolds never made an impact in Green Bay.

2002
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Panthers	2	Julius Peppers, North Carolina	76	10.1	3	No
Colts	11	Dwight Freeney, Syracuse	79	12.75	3	No
Jets	22	Bryan Thomas, Alabama-Birmingham	77	1.62	0	Yes
Saints	25	Charles Grant, Georgia	80	6.0	0	No

Peppers and Freeney alone make this a sensational class.

2003
Team	Pick	Player, School	Games	Sack avg.	Pro Bowls	Bust?
Ravens	10	Terrell Suggs, Arizona State	64	10.1	2	No
Patriots	13	Ty Warren, Texas A&M	63	2.0	0	No
Bears	14	Michael Haynes, Penn State	43	1.6	0	Yes
Eagles	15	Jerome McDougle, Miami	19	1.0	0	Yes
Raiders	32	Tyler Brayton, Colorado	63	2.0	0	No

Haynes did nothing for the Bears and McDougle did nothing for Philly other than make headlines for surviving a gunshot wound. Perhaps Philadelphia should place a moratorium on drafting DEs in the first round -- it hasn't been kind to them (McDougle, Harris, Mamula). Suggs has done exactly what he was supposed to do in Baltimore, which is generate pass rush from the 3-4 OLB position, and Warren has been a rotation guy inside for New England.

Crunching the Numbers: First-Round DEs, 1989-2003
Number of DEs drafted: 54

Notable busts: Andre Wadsworth, Mike Mamula, Cedric Jones, John Copeland, Eric Curry, Keith McCants

Number of busts: 17

Bust percentage: 31 percent

Number of DEs with at least one Pro Bowl appearance: 18

Pro Bowl percentage: 33 percent

Borderline players (could be called busts): Reinard Wilson, Renaldo Wynn, Ebenezer Ekuban

For the sake of comparison
Percentage of first-round LB busts: 16 percent
Percentage of first-round QB busts: 53 percent

Conclusions
Defensive end is a popular position -- one of the most frequently called on draft day. It is also one that I think can be skewed by pre-draft workout heroics and the presence of quality defensive end teammates (see: Jay Moore and Adam Carriker, Nebraska, this season).

While not quite as safe as linebacker, defensive end is still a pretty solid choice on draft day for teams looking to improve their defense at a relatively low risk. The only thing that gives me pause about this study though, is the presence of several borderline guys who put up middling numbers and barely escaped the bust label. Maybe I was too easy on the metrics.

Ted Kluck is not a scientist, rather he is the author of three books, including "Facing Tyson: Fifteen Fighters, Fifteen Stories" (Lyons Press 2006) and a full-fledged draft geek. He recently spent a season playing professional football as a member of the Battle Creek Crunch (GLIFL) where he was, without a doubt, a bust.